no problem bro. I am right now in the process of devising some shitty excel spreadsheet based on past predictions of mma fans and notable gamblers. BTW, I have very poor excel skills. I took a free online course from PWC just for kicks couple years ago. I was also thinking about diversifying my bets to reduce my risk and emulate Efficient market frontier.(kinda mixing up equities and bonds, in this case, I would be mixing up safe bets with crappy returns and high risk ones) I have alotta data organing to do and it seems a bit interesting.
My first question is this, how accurate does the money line predict the outcome? So theoretically, if we took all the -1200 money line, then the outcome should be at 92% winning rate. Is this true?
I also want to know how often does a line of +200 or whatever win? I want to do a statistical study of all the recent UFC outcomes and see if it actually makes sense.
Now, here is a word of warning. While I do sound like some dude who may know a thing or two about stats and finance, I am a complete noob. However, I am willing to work with anyone who wants to lend me a hand. While browsing through the forum, I see some smart guys who are talented. If we can amalgamate all our skills, I am sure we can come up with something.
What I do know for sure is, if we continue to discuss only based on subjective qualitative factors of a fight, we may be missing the larger picture.