Your Official TUF 26 Bets
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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TUF 26 Risk: 900
montano DEC: 27 parlays / modafferi ITD: 6 parlays
o'malley ITD: 27 parlays / o'malley RD1: 6 parlays / ware DEC: 9 parlays
murphy +210: 50 for 105 - 27 parlays / murphy DEC: 9 parlays / murphy ITD: 25 for 241.25 - 6 parlays / murphy RD3: 15 for 450 / murphy NSC: 100 for 279 / honchak
meerschaert KO: 20 for 101.80 - 15 parlays / spicely
bennett SUB: 27 parlays / fabian
soto: 27 parlays / soto SUB: 15 for 135 - 9 parlays / soto RD3: 6 parlays / soto NSC: 200 for 295 / johns
DeLaRosa SUB: 100 for 190 - 27 parlays / marks KO: 12 for 102
janes: 9 parlays / janes +3.5: 27 parlays / janes NSC: 6 parlays / O2.5: 82.50 for 50 / sanchez
ostovich SUB: 50 for 220 - 36 parlays / ostovich RD2: 6 parlays / gevorgyan
beck +185: 50 for 92.50 - 27 parlays / beck DEC: 9 parlays / dobson
robertson: 27 parlays / whitemire
props
SUB O3.5: 20 for 81.20
SUB O4.5: 5 for 66.45
SUB O5.5: 2 for 102
SUB O6.5: 1 for 309
FOTN: o'malley-ware: 10 for 50
parlays
90 RR for 2,028.14: montanoDEC/ omalleyITD/ murphy/ bennetSUB/ soto/ DLRSUB/ janes+3.5/ ostovichSUB/ beck/ robertson
31.50 RR for 764.71: wareDEC/ murphyDEC/ meerKO/ sotoSUB/ janes/ ostovichSUB/ beckDEC
21 RR for 1,243.69: modaferriITD/ omalleyRD1/ murphyITD/ meerKO/ sotoRD3/ janesNSC/ ostoRD2
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man that's all i'm doing for now. i might just leave it at this. might end up throwing some $ on janes +3.5 straight. might do something on johns dec. might do something really dumb on o'malley itd cause i'm dumb. did i mention i'm dumb? no clue how to play main event, think it's largely priced well.
not gonna let myself get owned on a 3rd straight shitty ufc without any really strong leans. (tho maybe i'm dumb for stopping murphy NSC action as it is, cause she's NOT getting finished... (...right?))
montano DEC: 27 parlays / modafferi ITD: 6 parlays
o'malley ITD: 27 parlays / o'malley RD1: 6 parlays / ware DEC: 9 parlays
murphy +210: 50 for 105 - 27 parlays / murphy DEC: 9 parlays / murphy ITD: 25 for 241.25 - 6 parlays / murphy RD3: 15 for 450 / murphy NSC: 100 for 279 / honchak
meerschaert KO: 20 for 101.80 - 15 parlays / spicely
bennett SUB: 27 parlays / fabian
soto: 27 parlays / soto SUB: 15 for 135 - 9 parlays / soto RD3: 6 parlays / soto NSC: 200 for 295 / johns
DeLaRosa SUB: 100 for 190 - 27 parlays / marks KO: 12 for 102
janes: 9 parlays / janes +3.5: 27 parlays / janes NSC: 6 parlays / O2.5: 82.50 for 50 / sanchez
ostovich SUB: 50 for 220 - 36 parlays / ostovich RD2: 6 parlays / gevorgyan
beck +185: 50 for 92.50 - 27 parlays / beck DEC: 9 parlays / dobson
robertson: 27 parlays / whitemire
props
SUB O3.5: 20 for 81.20
SUB O4.5: 5 for 66.45
SUB O5.5: 2 for 102
SUB O6.5: 1 for 309
FOTN: o'malley-ware: 10 for 50
parlays
90 RR for 2,028.14: montanoDEC/ omalleyITD/ murphy/ bennetSUB/ soto/ DLRSUB/ janes+3.5/ ostovichSUB/ beck/ robertson
31.50 RR for 764.71: wareDEC/ murphyDEC/ meerKO/ sotoSUB/ janes/ ostovichSUB/ beckDEC
21 RR for 1,243.69: modaferriITD/ omalleyRD1/ murphyITD/ meerKO/ sotoRD3/ janesNSC/ ostoRD2
---
man that's all i'm doing for now. i might just leave it at this. might end up throwing some $ on janes +3.5 straight. might do something on johns dec. might do something really dumb on o'malley itd cause i'm dumb. did i mention i'm dumb? no clue how to play main event, think it's largely priced well.
not gonna let myself get owned on a 3rd straight shitty ufc without any really strong leans. (tho maybe i'm dumb for stopping murphy NSC action as it is, cause she's NOT getting finished... (...right?))
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Just an O'Malley/Sanchez parlay for the action
Added some bets.
Final pre-event bets:
Modaferri ML +175 1u
Modaferri ITD +468 0.25u
Soto ML +185.6 2.5u
Soto SC=NA +187.5 1u
Soto ITD +532 0.3u
Soto Sub. +1050 0.1u
Soto R3 +2325 0.05u
Johns SC=NA +175 0.5u
Spicely ML +175 1u
Meerschaert KO/TKO +509 0.2u
O'Malley ITD +182.5 0.4u
Ware ML +225 0.5u
O'Malley KO/TKO +295 0.2u
Ware Dec. +427 0.15u
Sanchez ITD +215 0.2u
Janes-Sanchez ends ITD +155 0.2u
Gevorgyan-Ostovich ends ITD -120 0.48u
Ostovich R1 +400 0.15u
Beck ML +187 0.3u
Robertson ML +162 0.3u
Murphy SC=NA +279 0.5u
Bennet KO/TKO +424 0.15u
De La Rosa Sub +160 0.2u
Bennett ML & Ostovich ML -150 1u
Final pre-event bets:
Modaferri ML +175 1u
Modaferri ITD +468 0.25u
Soto ML +185.6 2.5u
Soto SC=NA +187.5 1u
Soto ITD +532 0.3u
Soto Sub. +1050 0.1u
Soto R3 +2325 0.05u
Johns SC=NA +175 0.5u
Spicely ML +175 1u
Meerschaert KO/TKO +509 0.2u
O'Malley ITD +182.5 0.4u
Ware ML +225 0.5u
O'Malley KO/TKO +295 0.2u
Ware Dec. +427 0.15u
Sanchez ITD +215 0.2u
Janes-Sanchez ends ITD +155 0.2u
Gevorgyan-Ostovich ends ITD -120 0.48u
Ostovich R1 +400 0.15u
Beck ML +187 0.3u
Robertson ML +162 0.3u
Murphy SC=NA +279 0.5u
Bennet KO/TKO +424 0.15u
De La Rosa Sub +160 0.2u
Bennett ML & Ostovich ML -150 1u
Last edited:
TUF 26 Finale Risk $2113.00
Roxanne Modaferri/Nicco Montano Under 4½ (+122) $100.00 for $122.00
Sean O'Malley wins inside distance (+180) $40.00 for $72.00
Sean O'Malley wins by TKO/KO (+250) $40.00 for $100.00
Sean O'Malley wins in round 2 (+625) $15.00 for $93.75
Sean O'Malley/Terrion Ware Under 2½ (+145) $100.00 for $145.00
Lauren Murphy/Barb Honchak Under 2½ (+235) $45.00 for $105.75
Eric Spicely/Gerald Meerschaert Under 1½ (+110) $50.00 for $55.00
DeAnna Bennett/Melinda Fabian Under 2½ (-145) $58.00 for $40.00
Joe Soto (+170) vs Brett Johns $100.00 for $170.00
Joe Soto (+170) vs Brett Johns $100.00 for $170.00
Joe Soto (+170) vs Brett Johns $100.00 for $170.00
Joe Soto scorecards = no action (+180) $150.00 for $270.00
Joe Soto wins by submission (+900) $25.00 for $225.00
Montana De La Rosa wins by submission (+120) vs Christina Marks $30.00 for $36.00
Ryan Janes (+445) vs Andrew Sanchez $50.00 for $222.50
Ryan Janes (+445) vs Andrew Sanchez $50.00 for $222.50
Rachael Osotovich (-323) vs Karine Gevorgyan ~$390.00 for ~$120.74
Rachael Ostovich (-360) vs Karine Gevorgyan $360.00 for $100.00
Rachael Ostovich wins inside distance (+164) $30.00 for $49.20
Rachael Ostovich/Karine Gevorgyan Under 1½ (+220) $50.00 for $110.00
Rachael Ostovich/Karine Gevorgyan Under 2½ (-105) $105.00 for $100.00
Ariel Beck (+237) vs Shana Dobson $50.00 for $118.50
Gillian Robertson (+159) vs Emily Whitmire $75.00 for $119.25
Roxanne Modaferri/Nicco Montano Under 4½ (+122) $100.00 for $122.00
Sean O'Malley wins inside distance (+180) $40.00 for $72.00
Sean O'Malley wins by TKO/KO (+250) $40.00 for $100.00
Sean O'Malley wins in round 2 (+625) $15.00 for $93.75
Sean O'Malley/Terrion Ware Under 2½ (+145) $100.00 for $145.00
Lauren Murphy/Barb Honchak Under 2½ (+235) $45.00 for $105.75
Eric Spicely/Gerald Meerschaert Under 1½ (+110) $50.00 for $55.00
DeAnna Bennett/Melinda Fabian Under 2½ (-145) $58.00 for $40.00
Joe Soto (+170) vs Brett Johns $100.00 for $170.00
Joe Soto (+170) vs Brett Johns $100.00 for $170.00
Joe Soto (+170) vs Brett Johns $100.00 for $170.00
Joe Soto scorecards = no action (+180) $150.00 for $270.00
Joe Soto wins by submission (+900) $25.00 for $225.00
Montana De La Rosa wins by submission (+120) vs Christina Marks $30.00 for $36.00
Ryan Janes (+445) vs Andrew Sanchez $50.00 for $222.50
Ryan Janes (+445) vs Andrew Sanchez $50.00 for $222.50
Rachael Osotovich (-323) vs Karine Gevorgyan ~$390.00 for ~$120.74
Rachael Ostovich (-360) vs Karine Gevorgyan $360.00 for $100.00
Rachael Ostovich wins inside distance (+164) $30.00 for $49.20
Rachael Ostovich/Karine Gevorgyan Under 1½ (+220) $50.00 for $110.00
Rachael Ostovich/Karine Gevorgyan Under 2½ (-105) $105.00 for $100.00
Ariel Beck (+237) vs Shana Dobson $50.00 for $118.50
Gillian Robertson (+159) vs Emily Whitmire $75.00 for $119.25
- Joined
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Gerald Meerschaest 2.5U @ $1.50
Gerald Meerschaest KO 0.5U @ $5.00
Gerald Meerschaest KO 0.5U @ $5.00
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Totals = -495
$150 to win $255 - Joe Soto
$174.07 to win $229 - Soto (NSC)
$50 to win $55.50 - Ostovich wins inside distance
$100 to Win $80.52 - De La Rosa wins inside distance
$135 to win $100 - Bennett wins inside distance
$172.50 to win $75 - Barb Honchak -230*
went on tilt a bit after the soto fight and threw away $300 before i decided to just call it a night.
$150 to win $255 - Joe Soto
$174.07 to win $229 - Soto (NSC)
$50 to win $55.50 - Ostovich wins inside distance
$100 to Win $80.52 - De La Rosa wins inside distance
$135 to win $100 - Bennett wins inside distance
$172.50 to win $75 - Barb Honchak -230*
went on tilt a bit after the soto fight and threw away $300 before i decided to just call it a night.
Modaferri ML +175 1u
Modaferri ITD +468 0.25u
Soto ML +185.6 2.5u
Soto SC=NA +187.5 1u
Soto ITD +532 0.3u
Soto Sub. +1050 0.1u
Soto R3 +2325 0.05u
Johns SC=NA +175 0.5u +0.8525u
Spicely ML +175 1u
Meerschaert KO/TKO +509 0.2u +1.018u
O'Malley ITD +182.5 0.4u
Ware ML +225 0.5u
O'Malley KO/TKO +295 0.2u
Ware Dec. +427 0.15u
Sanchez ITD +215 0.2u
Janes-Sanchez ends ITD +155 0.2u +0.31u
Gevorgyan-Ostovich ends ITD -120 0.48u +0.4u
Ostovich R1 +400 0.15u +0.6u
Beck ML +187 0.3u
Robertson ML +162 0.3u +0.486u
Murphy SC=NA +279 0.5u
Bennet KO/TKO +424 0.15u
De La Rosa Sub +160 0.2u +0.32u
Bennett ML (-400) & Ostovich ML (-300) -150 1u +0.3333u
Total: -3.7802u
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Welp. Got rekt. Still think that Ware @ 3.07 was the +EV side of that fight, and Soto losing like that was unexpected.
piglord
Black Belt
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nice prelude for tomorrow night, wasn't expecting much from tonight and did no research.
Fabian £25 returns VOID
WINS
Janes £50 returns £160
De la rosa sub £50 returns £125
Lovato £80 returns £280
Fabian/bennet draw £30 returrns £360
Murphy £50 returns £143
Omalley, montano £100 returns £204
LOSSES
Blencowe, lovato, cooper, reyes, razak, francis, teymur, torres, pettis, Holloway £25 returns £8974
Spicely/gm3 o1.5 £50 returns £100
Spicely £105 returns £220
Spicely £50 returns £105
Janes, beck, ostovich £13 returns £228
Sanchez/janes draw £20 returns £380
Spicely, soto, pettis £50 returns £1106
Soto £77 returns £203
PROFIT: £522
Fabian £25 returns VOID
WINS
Janes £50 returns £160
De la rosa sub £50 returns £125
Lovato £80 returns £280
Fabian/bennet draw £30 returrns £360
Murphy £50 returns £143
Omalley, montano £100 returns £204
LOSSES
Blencowe, lovato, cooper, reyes, razak, francis, teymur, torres, pettis, Holloway £25 returns £8974
Spicely/gm3 o1.5 £50 returns £100
Spicely £105 returns £220
Spicely £50 returns £105
Janes, beck, ostovich £13 returns £228
Sanchez/janes draw £20 returns £380
Spicely, soto, pettis £50 returns £1106
Soto £77 returns £203
PROFIT: £522
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- Messages
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- 1,654
Between this and Bellator I'm up 1u, disappointing but can't complain. Worst part of the night was trying to put a unit on Janes ITD +8000 but having the line pulled while it was loading. Bought out of the De La Hoya over after seeing the effect of the small cage.
Mid-event/live-bets:
On to tomorrow.
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TUF 26 Net: +1,009.84
montano DEC: 27 parlays / montano RD4: 15 for 202.50 / montano RD5: 10 for 195 / ITD: 30 for 54 / ITD: 30 for 54 / modafferi ITD: 6 parlays
o'malley +130: 40 for 52 / o'malley ITD: 27 parlays / o'malley RD1: 6 parlays / ware DEC: 9 parlays
murphy +128: 160 for 205 - 27 parlays / murphy DEC: 9 parlays / murphy ITD: 25 for 241.25 - 6 parlays / murphy RD3: 15 for 450 / murphy NSC: 100 for 279
meerschaert -165: 165 for 100 / meershcaert KO: 20 for 101.80 - 15 parlays
bennett +132: 50 for 66 / bennett SUB: 27 parlays
soto: 27 parlays / soto SUB: 15 for 135 - 9 parlays / soto RD3: 6 parlays / soto NSC: 200 for 295
DeLaRosa SUB: 100 for 190 - 27 parlays / marks KO: 12 for 102
janes: 9 parlays / janes +3.5: 50 for 82.50 - 27 parlays / janes NSC: 6 parlays / O2.5: 82.50 for 50 / sanchez +540: 20 for 108
ostovich SUB: 50 for 222 - 36 parlays / ostovich RD2: 6 parlays
beck +185: 50 for 92.50 - 27 parlays / beck DEC: 9 parlays
robertson: 27 parlays
props
SUB O3.5: 20 for 81.20
SUB O4.5: 5 for 66.45
SUB O5.5: 2 for 102
SUB O6.5: 1 for 309
FOTN: o'malley-ware: 10 for 50
parlays
90 RR for (paid +297.52) 2,028.14: montanoDEC/ omalleyITD/ murphy/ bennetSUB/ soto/ DLRSUB/ janes+3.5/ ostovichSUB/ beck/ robertson
31.50 RR for (paid +161.05) 764.71: wareDEC/ murphyDEC/ meerKO/ sotoSUB/ janes/ ostovichSUB/ beckDEC
21 RR for (paid +9.27) 1,243.69: modaferriITD/ omalleyRD1/ murphyITD/ meerKO/ sotoRD3/ janesNSC/ ostoRD2
---
back on track. nice score.
and whining winner comment: fuck my life i fucking should've made 400-600 on janes. yea, he cashed thru the rr's and all but i should've bet him prefight and live. that was my lean all week and i fucked up. live and learn.
montano DEC: 27 parlays / montano RD4: 15 for 202.50 / montano RD5: 10 for 195 / ITD: 30 for 54 / ITD: 30 for 54 / modafferi ITD: 6 parlays
o'malley +130: 40 for 52 / o'malley ITD: 27 parlays / o'malley RD1: 6 parlays / ware DEC: 9 parlays
murphy +128: 160 for 205 - 27 parlays / murphy DEC: 9 parlays / murphy ITD: 25 for 241.25 - 6 parlays / murphy RD3: 15 for 450 / murphy NSC: 100 for 279
meerschaert -165: 165 for 100 / meershcaert KO: 20 for 101.80 - 15 parlays
bennett +132: 50 for 66 / bennett SUB: 27 parlays
soto: 27 parlays / soto SUB: 15 for 135 - 9 parlays / soto RD3: 6 parlays / soto NSC: 200 for 295
DeLaRosa SUB: 100 for 190 - 27 parlays / marks KO: 12 for 102
janes: 9 parlays / janes +3.5: 50 for 82.50 - 27 parlays / janes NSC: 6 parlays / O2.5: 82.50 for 50 / sanchez +540: 20 for 108
ostovich SUB: 50 for 222 - 36 parlays / ostovich RD2: 6 parlays
beck +185: 50 for 92.50 - 27 parlays / beck DEC: 9 parlays
robertson: 27 parlays
props
SUB O3.5: 20 for 81.20
SUB O4.5: 5 for 66.45
SUB O5.5: 2 for 102
SUB O6.5: 1 for 309
FOTN: o'malley-ware: 10 for 50
parlays
90 RR for (paid +297.52) 2,028.14: montanoDEC/ omalleyITD/ murphy/ bennetSUB/ soto/ DLRSUB/ janes+3.5/ ostovichSUB/ beck/ robertson
31.50 RR for (paid +161.05) 764.71: wareDEC/ murphyDEC/ meerKO/ sotoSUB/ janes/ ostovichSUB/ beckDEC
21 RR for (paid +9.27) 1,243.69: modaferriITD/ omalleyRD1/ murphyITD/ meerKO/ sotoRD3/ janesNSC/ ostoRD2
---
back on track. nice score.
and whining winner comment: fuck my life i fucking should've made 400-600 on janes. yea, he cashed thru the rr's and all but i should've bet him prefight and live. that was my lean all week and i fucked up. live and learn.
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Hit:
Meerschaert over Spicely = +$50
Meerschaert KO Spicely = +$80
O'Malley over Ware = +$30.80
Missed:
Soto over Johns = -$60
Total = $100.80 profit = ~2.5U.
Slow and steady wins the race. Didn't bet so much for action this card, tried to be a bit more disciplined. Still bet O'Malley at overly juiced odds for fun, but he got the job done in the end.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2016
- Messages
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- Reaction score
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Didn't post beforehand because I only had a few small plays, but added more during the card and ended up with:
0.825u Meerschaert -165 +0.5u
0.1u Janes ITD +1040 +1.04u
0.05u Janes RD3 +3200 +1.6u
0.75u Johns DEC +174 -0.75u
0.4u Soto SUB +900 -0.4u
Live:
0.5u Janes +240 +1.2u
0.3u Ware +310 -0.3u
0.3u O'Malley +130 +0.39u
NET: +3.28u
Unexpectedly good night with +5u on Bellator (Lovato) too. Super pumped for tonight.
0.825u Meerschaert -165 +0.5u
0.1u Janes ITD +1040 +1.04u
0.05u Janes RD3 +3200 +1.6u
0.75u Johns DEC +174 -0.75u
0.4u Soto SUB +900 -0.4u
Live:
0.5u Janes +240 +1.2u
0.3u Ware +310 -0.3u
0.3u O'Malley +130 +0.39u
NET: +3.28u
Unexpectedly good night with +5u on Bellator (Lovato) too. Super pumped for tonight.
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-1u but pumped for hitting the optimum result in Janes - Sanches. Fight went just as I had hoped it would. I knew Sanches is a single minded fighter prone to gas against someone like Janes and that Janes is so weak finisher, that he would need a really tired Sachez to get it done. Needles to say, I did not expect a tko from Meerschaert or calf slicer from Johns.
