Your Official UFC 212 Bets

[Antagonist88]

1u Assuncao +160 +1.6
1.05u Yancy -105 +1u
1.66u Oluwale Bamgbose +255 -1.66u
2u Holloway/Aldo o4.5 -155 -2u
0.66u Marquardt ITD +166 -.66u
0.4u Marquardt KO +280 -0.4u
0.33u Marquardt R1 +300 (Hate this bet. Got antsy when props came out and didn't check the KO line which is significantly better) -0.33u
0.33u Bamgbose TKO/KO +450 -0.33u
0.2u Bamgbose Fastest KO +1000 0.2u
0.2u Marquardt KO +1050 -0.2u
0.33u Lopez DEC +365 -0.33u

RR'd in 3s: Gadelha/KK o2.5 + Moyle/Pereira o2.5 + Assuncao/Moraes o2.5 + Beltran/Fig o1.5. Risk: 4u to win 7u -1.33u

And the usual dumb lotto, RR'd 2-5
Oluwale KO + Marquardt R2 + Yancy R3 + Wallhead R3 + Gadelha SUB. $13 to win about 75k.

ADDED LIVE:
0.66u Assuncao +155 after R1 +1.02u

TOTAL RISK: Around 12u



Smaller card than normal for me. To avoid being super small I broke away from staying disciplined and went back to my usual degen ways with Round Robins, lots of dogs, and forced plays. Expecting a rough night but hoping for the best. Let's go Bamgbose and Marquardt

Down 3.82u. Took the beating I expected, but definitely not the way I expected to take it. Started out hot with 3 of the 4 overs, Assuncao, and Yancy. But very downhill with some outright weird things like Oluwale becoming a wrestler, Vitor going to decision, and Gadelha shocking the world with a finish. And I'm building up an impressive streak of only hitting 1 leg of these lottos; would rather get 0 I think. Feels brutal.

Oh well, lot of leans for New Zealand and I'll be back to disciplined betting.

Also should have hedged the under for Gadelha/KK and I'd have saved myself 3u. Got greedy and overconfident. 3u learning experience

 

[t6p]

1.52u Aldo-Holloway o4.5 -122 -1.52u
1u Holloway NSC +110 +1.1u
0.05u Holloway RD4 +2050 -0.05u
0.05u Holloway RD5 +2350 -0.05u

0.5u Kowalkiewicz DEC +468 -0.5u
0.05u Kowalkiewicz RD3 +2800 -0.05u

0.5u Bamgbose +275 -0.5u
0.1u Borrachinha SUB +900 -0.1u

0.5u Silva +130 -0.5u

1.79u Moraes NSC -179 +0u
0.5u Assuncao DEC +349 +1.75u

0.5u Kelleher +295 +1.48u
0.2u Kelleher NSC +504 +1.01u

0.5u Moyle +145 -0.5u
0.5u Moyle NSC +180 +0u

0.1u Shoeface/Moraes-Assuncao o2.5/Silva/Bamgbose-Costa u1.5/Marquardt-Belfort u1.5/KK-Gadelha o2.5/Holloway +2283 -0.1u
0.1u Shoeface SUB/Holloway KO +2620 +2.62u
0.1u Moyle NSC/Moraes NSC/KK NSC/Holloway NSC +1740 -0.1u

Added:

0.5u Marquardt +110 -0.5u

NET: +3.49u

Well, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Seriously lucked out with the Assuncao decision and my last minute Shoeface sub/Max KO parlay. But I'll definitely take it. Finally back in the positive after a brutal start to the year. On another note, I'm super impressed with Holloway. The dude is a monster. I'd love to see a rematch with Conor, but we'll probably get an Edgar fight which is cool too.

 

[ChoKuRei]

Took a big hit tonight. I am permanently retiring from MMA betting. I did not become elite, the prophecy was not fulfilled.

Peace

 

[piglord]

Took a big hit tonight. I am permanently retiring from MMA betting. I did not become elite, the prophecy was not fulfilled.

Peace

stick at it man, we all have bad nights, and stretches. mma gambling is the one thing in the world that's pure and beautiful.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

10u Gadelha/Aldo @2.67
1.1u Medieros @1.91
1u Chagas/Iuri/Shoeface/Vitor R1 @6.5

Does anyone ever hit their biggest lifetime bets?
-10 units.

 

[2bet]

1.5u Beltran/Figueiredo O1.5 + Belfort 2,74
2.0u Chagas/Wallhead U2.5 2,20
2.0u Pereira 1,80
2.0u Shoeface + Gadelha 1,96
2.5u Shoeface + Gadelha + Holm + Hendricks 3,37
2.0u Shoeface + Aldo/Holloway O2.5 + Hunt + Holm 4,56
1.0u Medeiros + Hendricks 2,52

2.0u Pereira/Moyle O2.5 + Gadelha/KK O2.5 + Assunc./Moraes O2.5 2,79
2.0u Eduardo 2,70
2.0u Eduardo/Lopez O2.5 1,90
1.5u Assunc./Moraes O2.5 + Real/Juve U3.5 + Aldo/Holloway O1.5 + Holm 2,11
1.0u Silva/Medeiros O1.5 + Gadelha/KK O2.5 2,06
1.0u Silva/Medeiros O1.5 + Hendricks 2,22
1.0u Borrachinha/Bangbus O1.5 3,00
1.0u Gadelha + Aldo/Holloway O4.5 2,21
1.0u Gadelha Dec. + Hunt + Tybura + Holm 5,58
1.5u Holloway Dec. 3,75

I got 27u on the line, 6.5u of those are on Shoeface ML, and 5.5u are on Gadelha ML (+1u Gadelha DEC)

I am really not proud of the unit sizes of my picks this time, tbh I should have rather dropped 1.5u on every bet.


Get Rich or Die Tryin!

Well, Shoeface and Gadelha both won convingly (Gadelha actually too convingly, since I was on the over as well).

I regret betting the over in the bangbus fight, that was too much of a longshot.
I regret betting the O4.5 in the Aldo fight.
I regret making too many bets.
And I regret my live bets, after I got screwed on Moraes I should have just left it at that, instead of chasing.

I will do just a frew straight bets next time, Luca Fury Style!

 

[EzFlyer]

Does anyone ever hit their biggest lifetime bets?
-10 units.

just don't do 'em maybe >< slow and steady wins the race

 

[EzFlyer]

Took a big hit tonight. I am permanently retiring from MMA betting. I did not become elite, the prophecy was not fulfilled.

Peace

we've all been there, man. chin up, get 'em next time

 

[EzFlyer]

UFC 212 Net: -672.76
holloway +130: 350 for 492.50 - 65 parlays / holloway DEC: 33 for 99 / holloway ITD: 22 parlays / holloway RD4: 15 for 322.50 / holloway RD5: 15 for 410 - 5 parlays / holloway +5.5: 60 parlays / holloway NSC: 150 for 163 - 24 parlays / O4.5: 75 for 50 / ITD: 20 for 48 - 15 parlays
KK DEC: 50 for 236 - 12 parlays / gadelha DEC: 40 parlays / gadelha NSC: 145 for 100
marquardt +134: 150 for 200.25 - 25 parlays / marq ITD: 12 parlays / marq RD2: 15 for 131.25 / marq RD3: 10 for 170 / marq NSC: 50 parlays
bamgbose +275: 50 for 137.50 / U1.5: 60 parlays / RD1: 180 for 100 - 24 parlays / costa KO: 135 for 100 / costa SUB: 10 for 97.30 / costa RD1: 40 parlays
silva +115: 100 for 115 - 89 parlays / silva DEC: 25 for 120 - 12 parlays / silva RD1: 22 for 99 / DEC: 40 for 102 - 30 parlays / NOT medeiros ITD: 149 for 100 - 60 parlays
moraes -168: 470 for 280 / moraes DEC: 25 parlays / DEC: 87.50 for 50 / assuncao DEC: 40 parlays / assuncao +3.5: 67.50 for 50 - 84 parlays
spicely +350: 50 for 175 / spicely SUB: 25 for 121.25 / spicely RD3: 15 for 345 / spicely NSC: 50 for 136.40 - 25 parlays / ITD: 15 parlays / RD1: 12 parlays / junior KO: 25 for 164.50
lopez -124: 186 for 150 - 24 parlays / lopez DEC: 30 for 109.50 - 15 parlays / lopez SUB: 10 parlays / lopez RD3: 5 parlays
alcantara RD3: 5 parlays / ITD: 30 parlays / RD1: 12 parlays
moyle +139: 200 for 277 - 25 parlays / moyle DEC: 15 parlays / moyle sub: 10 for 95 / moyle RD3: 5 parlays / moyle NSC: 150 for 322.50
wallhead RD3: 10 for 217.50 - 5 parlays / wallhead NSC: 40 for 110 - 22 parlays
figueiredo -145: 101.50 for 70 / figueiredo ITD: 30 parlays / beltran: 25 parlays / beltran RD3: 5 parlays
props
FOTN: silva-medeiros: 10 for 57.50
parlays
20 for 50.39 bamgbose-costaU1.5/ holloway+5.5/ NOTmedeirosITD
20 for 49.30 bamgbose-costaU1.5/ holloway+5.5/ assuncao+3.5
20 for 56.55 bamgbose-costaU1.5/ NOTmedeirosITD/ assuncao+3.5
20 for 63.18 holloway+5.5/ NOTmedeirosITD/ assuncao+3.5
50 RR for 590.78: holloway/ marq/ silva/ moraesDEC/ moyle/ beltran
28 RR for 1,824.78: hollowayITD/ KKDEC/ marqITD/ silvaDEC/ JRspicelyRD1/ iurikelleherRD1/ wallheadNSC
20 RR for (paid -2.37) 930.16: hollowayITD/ marqNSC/ assuncaoDEC/ spicelyNSC/ lopezSUB/ wallheadNSC
30 RR for (paid +192.67) 520.36: hollowayaldoITD/ medeirossilvaDEC/ assuncaoDEC/ spicelyjuniorITD/ kelleheralcantaraITD/ figueiredoITD
35 RR for (paid -15.89) 1,180.50: medeirossilvaDEC/ assuncaoDEC/ spicelyNSC/ lopezDEC/ kelleheralcantaraITD/ moyleDEC/ figueiredoITD
15 RR for 3,889.97: hollowayRD5/ lopezRD3/ alcantaraRD3/ moyleRD3/ wallheadRD3/ beltranRD3
40 RR for (paid -15.47) 212.75: hollowayNSC/ bamgbosecostaRD1/ silva/ assuncao+3.5/ lopez
100 RR for (paid -77.50) 335.33: holloway/ gadelhadec/ marqNSC/ costaRD1/ silva
---

R.I.P. winning streak. i knew all week i was gonna lose.

but the moraes split decision f'ing hurt..

and if silva just made it to the final bell i'd have been even...

whatever. i gambled more than i should have. at least i pulled a nice score on holloway, i was increasingly confident all week long, felt good to get it right.

 

[Shoulder]

Aldo [email protected]
Holloway 0.1U@29
KK dec [email protected]
Nate [email protected]
Moraes [email protected]
Spicely [email protected]

Well FML. I've lost like five events in a row or so, and I really don't know what I should be doing different. This one was the worst with about 4U, but I'll make fewer plays and hope the tide is turning.

Lot of events and lot of time to make this year a good one.

 

[Mcgregorian]

Some upsets tonight. A good night for me. My two main picks hit Yancy and Max. Ended up $1,320 up. If Moraes would have won like he should have it would have been amazing.

WP to everyone who won.

I feel Auckland is a much easier card to predict. Plus i can't wait as I'm going. I have three main picks once lines are out....

 

[Jamah]

1u Yancy Medeiros @1.90
1u Medeiros + Lopez @3.10
1u Gadelha + O2.5 Moraes-Assunçao @2.10
0.5u Kelleher @3.50
0.5u Wallhead @3.25

Great event! +4.85u.

 

[Sham5916910]

5 units carlos jr + gadelha

Easy hit but i lost 1.5 units on lb due to moraes and nate decisions first time ive ever been down from lb. So overall up 3 units.

 

[Obsidian Fracture]

$80 Aldo @ $1.80
$25 Assuncao @ $3.15
$25 free bet Assuncao @ $2.45

$80 Aldo @ $1.80 = -$80
$25 Assuncao @ $3.15 = +$53.75
$25 free bet Assuncao @ $2.45 = +$36.25

Total = +$10...Meh

 

[BigNick100]

1.2U Yancy @-110 - $115
.30U Yancy ITD @ +244 - $73
.25U Yancy ITD @ +160 - $52
.20U Yancy Round 2 - $107
.20U Yancy Round 3 - $177
.20U Medeiros wins by 3 round decision +325 - $65
(Reliazed I went too much on Yancy ITD and round bets,and if that doesn't cash but he wins I don't get much profit off the ML, so did a little Yancy DEC in case, a mistake on my part. But if Yancy wins ITD and in round 2 or 3, then ching ching!! $) If he loses, sour grapes.

.20U Kelleher wins by 3 round decision +470 - $94

.20u Marquardt / Belfort goes 3 rd distance +450 - $90



10.U Holloway wins in round 3 +1550 - $155
.10U Holloway wins in round 4 +2050 - $205
.10U Holloway wins in round 5 +2350 - $235
.50u Holloway wins by 5 round decision* +255 - $127.50

.15 U -Bamgbose / Costa starts round 3 +308 - $46
.15U Bamgbose / Costa starts round 2 +158* - $23
.10U Bamgbose wins by 3 round decision +1115 - $111

.10 Wallhead wins in round 3 +1800* - $180
.10 Wallhead wins by 3 round decision +385 - $39

.25U Spicely / Junior goes 3 round distance +100 - $25

.10U Pereira wins by submission +735 - $73.50
.10U Moyle wins by submission +800* - $80
(did this as a hedge in my parlays in case this fight doesn't go the dec, it will mostly be by sub)
Parlays

- $50 to win $384 - 5 Teamer
Max Holloway/Jose Aldo Over 4½ -165*
Antonio Carlos Junior -225* vs Eric Spicely
Derek Brunson -300* vs Daniel Kelly
Marcin Tybura -250* vs Andrei Arlovski
Mike Chiesa +100* vs Kevin Lee

4 Teamer $50 to win $261
Max Holloway/Jose Aldo Over 4½ -145*
Claudia Gadelha -300* vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Yancy Medeiros -105* vs Erick Silva
Antonio Carlos Junior -240* vs Eric Spicely


$30 to win $192
Max Holloway/Jose Aldo Over 4½ -165*
Claudia Gadelha -300* vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Yancy Medeiros -140* vs Erick Silva
Antonio Carlos Junior -225* vs Eric Spicely
Pereira / Moyle goes 3 round distance -260*

$16 to win $253
Yancy Medeiros -145* vs Erick Silva
Holloway / Aldo goes 5 round distance -170*
Kowalkiewicz / Gadelha goes 3 rd dist -360*
Moraes / Assuncao goes 3 round distance
Lopez / Eduardo starts round 2 -317*
Kelleher / Alcantara starts round 2 -305*
Pereira / Moyle goes 3 round distance -275*
Beltran / Alcantara starts round 2 -286*

$35- $149

Antonio Carlos Junior -245* vs Eric Spicely
Moraes / Assuncao goes 3 round distance -215*
Lopez / Eduardo starts round 2 -325*
Pereira / Moyle goes 3 round distance -275*
Wallhead / Chagas starts round 2 -257*

ADDED LATE:
.10u Marquardt wins in round 2 +625 - $62
.5U Marquardt wins in round 3 +1200 - $60
.10U Marquardt wins by 3 round decision
.10 Marquardt wins by submission +900 - $90

.10 U Yancy Medeiros wins fastest KO +1400 - $140
.10U Medeiros wins by submission +446 - $44

11U Beltran wins by 3 round decision +275 - $31


.30U Raphael Assuncao +215 - $64

.10U Holloway wins in round 1 +1400 - $140
.10U Holloway wins in round 2 +1600 - $160
.10U Holloway wins in round 3 +1800 - $180
.10U Holloway wins in round 4 +2200 - $220
.10U Holloway wins in round 5 +2800 - $280

.33U Costa wins by TKO/KO -135* - $27
.
10U Bamgbose wins in round 1 +475

4 TEAMER - $15 TO WIN $188

Yancy Medeiros -140* vs Erick Silva
Marlon Moraes -190* vs Raphael Assuncao
Antonio Carlos Junior -275* vs Eric Spicely
Brian Kelleher +280


$30 TO WIN $148
Claudia Gadelha -300* vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Antonio Carlos Junior -225* vs Eric Spicely
Luan Chagas -255* vs Jim Wallhead
Holloway / Aldo goes 5 round distance -165*
Pereira / Moyle goes 3 round distance -260*

END RESULT : PROFIT OF $284
My confidence in Yancy really payed off! But so many parlays busted by one leg or else I would have had a great night. Time to do some 3 team parlays now next event.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Looks like they didnt grade the FOTN win til today. -3.66u for me. 2nd losing UFC of the year. Time to dust it off, make it a chance to grow and get another streak going.

 

[Polarize]

+1.3u after some good livebets (Carlos Jr ITD +170/180, Belfort DEC +500, Holloway +162, Medeiros -150) but I feel stupid not betting Belfort ML instead of ITD.

I lost a few units on Moraes livebetting. 2 of the judges were new in UFC, for one of them it was his first fight as a UFC judge, and he scores 30-27 for Assuncao lol.

 

[onC]

I feel Auckland is a much easier card to predict. Plus i can't wait as I'm going. I have three main picks once lines are out....

You think that's a good thing? I dont. If it's "easy to predict", the odds reflect that. I'd much rather have a card full of pick'ems (by popular opinion), that's where the money is made if you know what you're doing.

 

[onC]

Well, Shoeface and Gadelha both won convingly (Gadelha actually too convingly, since I was on the over as well).

I regret betting the over in the bangbus fight, that was too much of a longshot.
I regret betting the O4.5 in the Aldo fight.
I regret making too many bets.
And I regret my live bets, after I got screwed on Moraes I should have just left it at that, instead of chasing.

I will do just a frew straight bets next time, Luca Fury Style!

Singles are the way to go. Parlays are just worse in every way If you're looking to make money longterm.

This illustrates it pretty well and is easy to understand

https://www.reddit.com/r/SoccerBetting/comments/6d2hnd/a_deeper_look_into_accumulators/

 

[timmyclax22]

All to win 1U

Aldo/Holloway goes distance (-150)
Kowalkiewicz (+260)
Spicely (+265)
Marquardt (+140)

Added Aldo Unan (+265) during event.

-3.35U. I more than likely should have only bet Aldo and Nate as I hated this event for betting, watching, you name it. Got my dick handed to me with the 0fer.