Your Official UFC 214 Bets

4u Manuwa - 1.57
1u Evinger/Justino o0.5 + Maia/Woodley ITD - 1.96
1u Filli + Woodley KO - 2.57
1.5 Lamas - 2.07
1u Barao - 2.15
0.5u Jones SUB or DEC - 1.83
0.5u Lawler/Cerrone u2.5 - 1.90
0.5u Lawler/Cerrone KO - 2.15 (Dumb bet, the under has superior value...)
0.25u Manuwa/Oezdemir o1.5 - 2.50
0.25u Fili ITD - 2.20
0.1u Lamas R3 - 19.00
0.1u Manuwa R3 - 15.00
0.05u Jones R4 SUB - 41.00
0.05u Jones R5 SUB - 51.00

Live/late additions:

0.2u Lamas ITD - 4.85
1u Kattar - 1.57
1u Lawler - 1.61
0.5u Jones ITD - 3.00
0.5u Jones/Cormier ITD - 2.37
0.1u Cyborg R2 - 6.50
0.5u Manuwa KO - 1.90
0.05u Burkman Split/Maj DEC - 17.00

Total: -3,74u

Second disastrous event in a row for me. Seriously...I won ONE of my pre-fight bets. ONE.
 
Antagonist88 said:
Been so busy this week so I don't feel good about anything.

1u Ortega +130 +1.3
1u Barao +110 -1
2.2u Ortega/Moicano o2.5 -165 +1.33
1u Knight +100 -1
2u Curran/Albu o2.5 -160 +1.3
2.4u Manuwa -180 -2.4
2u AlJo/Barao o2.5 + Fili +100 -2

TOTAL RISK: 11.4u. Not nearly enough tape for this card, and fully expecting to add more during the card

ADDED LIVE
0.33u Shelton DEC +268 -.33
1u Kattar +140 +1.4
2u Ortega/Moicano o2.5 + Barao/AlJo o2.5 -115 +1.85
1.25u Lawler/Cerrone u2.5 -125
1u Lawler + Woodley/Maia Does NOT start R5 + Jones -5.5 +300
2u Woodley/Maia Does NOT Star R4 + DC NSC
0.66u Maia SUB +288
0.66u Cerrone +160 LIVE R1
Click to expand...

-5.13u. Lot of regrets; I bet like an idiot. Did everything wrong. Dumb chase plays, switched sides off AlJo, let Bias take over with Knight, bet Fili without watching Kattar. Busy week, so I replaced the hard work with stupidity, and it did not pay off.
 
Obsidian Fracture said:
1U Lamas over Knight @ $2.00 = $40 to profit $40
2U Manuwa over Oezdemir @ $1.55 = $80 to profit $44
0.75U Cormier over Jones @ $3.16 = $30 to p-3rofit $64.80
Click to expand...

Live bet Ortega 2U @ $1.67 = $80 profited $53.60
Hit Lamas: Profited $40

Missed Manuwa (-$80) and Cormier (-$30)

Net was -$16.40 = About -0.4U
 
Total Risk: $122

Total Actual Payout: -$39.50
Total Possible Payout: $688.50

Jones, Maia, Cyborg, Manuwa, Fili, Barao, Cerrone to win
$5 to win $200
Lose: $5

Eric Shelton to win
$5 to win $12
Lose: $5

Renan Barao to win
$15 to win $33
Lose: $5

Lamas to win
$10 to win $20
Win: $20

Oezdemir to win
$5 to win $12.50.
Win: $12.50

Manuwa/Oezdemir GTD
$4 to win $15
Lose: $4

Cerrone to win
$15 to win $36
Lose: $15

Maia to win
$15 to win $37.50
Lose: $15

Cyborg/Evinger U1.5
$15 to win $21
Lose: $15 (How did Evinger survive that long?!?!)

Cormier/Jones U4.5
$12 to win $29
Win: $29

Cormier to win
$6 to win $18
Lose: $6

Jones to win in Round 4
$5 to win $115
Lose: $5

Jones to win in Round 5
$5 to win $145
Lose: $5

Jones to KO/TKO/DQ in Round 4
$2.50 to win $85
Lose: $2.50

Jones to KO/TKO/DQ in Round 5
$2.50 to win $127.50
Lose: $2.50

Bad night for me. Too bad Jones couldn't wait one more round to get that knockout!
 
1.78u Jones NSC -178 +1u
1.25u Jones -5.5 -125 +1u

1u Maia SUB +320 -1u

0.25u Evinger-Cyborg o1.5 +285 +0.73u

0.5u Cerrone SUB +1415 -0.5u

4u Manuwa -160 -4u

2u Lamas +110 +2.2u
0.3u Lamas DEC +383 -0.3u

2u Barao +113 -2u
1u Barao NSC +146 +0u
0.1u Barao ITD +535 -0.1u
0.05u Barao SUB +1275 -0.05u
0.05u Barao RD1 +975 -0.05u

0.5u Ortega +150 +0.75u
0.05u Ortega RD3 +1800 +0.9u

0.1u Barao/Lamas/Manuwa/Maia/Jones +2216 -0.1u
1.05u RR (3s,6) Ortega/Lamas/Barao/Manuwa -3.5/Maia NSC/Jones -5.5 +1.29u
1u RR (2s,3s) Ortega ITD/Lamas ITD/Lawler DEC/Woodley DEC/Jones ITD +66.61u

NET: +66.38u

Wow. Best night ever for me by far. I can't believe everything in that round robin hit. Pretty much broke even on the rest of my plays but 66u on a 1u win risk parlay, man I don't know if I'll ever pull that off again. Had I played that by 4s and 5 too I can't even imagine what the payout must have been. Lucky more than good but I'll take it!
 
Last edited:
Up 3.5u tonight, but I don't feel like a winner. I'll break it down later.
 
Jamah said:
1.5u Fili+Manuwa @2.00
1u Lamas @2.00
1u Woodley + JJ SUB or DEC @2.75
1u Curran @2.40
0.5u Barao @2.10
0.4u o1.5 Evinger-Cyborg @3.00
Live: 0.5u Ortega @2.87 , 0.1u Ortega ITD @12.00
Click to expand...

-0.15u , I break even, I thought that JJ would submit DC or win a decision, didn't expect him to ko DC. That was sad.
 
UFC 214 Net: +1,792.65
JJ -5.5: 105 for 100 - 25 parlays / JJ ITD: 36 parlays / JJ SUB: 7 parlays / JJ RD1: 11 parlays / JJ NSC: 265.50 for 150 - 25 parlay / TIMEOUT: 20 for 42 / NOT DC ITD: 50 parlay
Twood DEC: 20 for 102 / Twood SPLIT: 12 for 135 / Twood SUB: 6 for 201 / Twood RD1: 15 parlays / Twood RD4: 5 parlays / ITD: 2.50 for 47.25 / maia +2200: 15 for 330 / maia ITD: 21 parlays / maia RD1: 13 parlays / maia RD2: 5 parlays / Maia SPLIT: 8 for 194 / maia NSC: 100 for 176 - 15 parlays
cyborg KO: 100 parlays / Cyborg RD2: 20 for 135 - 23 parlays / cyborg RD3: 5 parlays / O1.5: 15 parlays / evinger +1200: 15 for 180
cowboy: 0 for 95 / cowboy SUB: 125 for 1,570 - 7 parlays / cowboy RD3: 11 parlays / cowboy NSC: 15 parlays / DEC: 136.50 for 105 / U2.5: 99.80 for 90 - 25 parlays
manuwa -160: 160 for 100 - 25 parlay / manuwa RD2: 6 parlays / manuwa RD3: 10 parlays / O2.0: 15 parlays / O1.5: 15 parlays
lamas -101: 250 for 247 - 25 parlays / lamas DEC: 21 parlays / lamas KO: 20 for 254 - 5 parlays / knight SUB: 30 for 234.30 - 7 parlays
barao +127: 150 for 191.14 - 25 parlays / barao DEC: 36 parlays / O2.5: 25 parlay / sterling NSC: 50 for 130
ortega +163: 300 for 490 - 15 parlays / ortega ITD: 21 parlays / ortega SUB: 40 for 224 - 7 parlays / ortega RD3: 15 for 270 - 16 parlays / ortega NSC: 352.50 for 250 - 50 parlay / O2.5: 67.50 for 50 / NOT moicano DEC: 25 parlays
kattar +155: 50 for 77.50 / DEC: 54 for 30 / fili: 25 parlay / fili ITD: 15 parlays / fili RD2: 5 parlays / fili RD3: 11 for 99 - 16 parlays
curran DEC: 21 parlays / curran +3.5: 50 for 40
shelton +133: 200 for 265 - 40 parlays / shelton DEC: 36 parlays / shelton ITD: 7 parlays / shelton SUB: 20 for 178 - 5 parlays / shelton RD3: 5 parlays / shelton NSC: 115 for 100 / U2.5: 0 for 1.65
dober -165: 206.25 for 125 / dober ITD: 15 parlays / dober RD1: 7 parlays / dober RD3: 5 parlays
props
FOTN: knight-lamas: 10 for 70
parlays
50 for 59.71: NOTDCITD/ cyborgKO/ ortegaNSC
25 for 40.22 jonesNSC/ cyborgKO/ baraosterlingO2.5
25 for 37.08 cyborgKO/ manuwa/ fili
50 RR for (paid -32.44) 313.68: jones-5.5/ cowboyrobbieU2.5/ lamas/ barao/ NOTcarnDEC/ shelton
49 RR for 1,821.94: jonesITD/ maiaITD/ lamasDEC/ baraoDEC/ ortegaITD/ curranDEC/ sheltonDEC
35 RR for (paid +7.48) 1,593.13: jonesITD/ twoodRD1/ evingercyborgO1.5/ cowboyITD/ oezmanuwaO2.0/ sheltonDEC/ doberITD
35 RR for (paid -32.55) 475.75: maiaNSC/ cowboyNSC/ manuwaoezO1.5/ baraoDEC/ ortega/ filiTD/ shelton
28 RR for (paid +2.25) 1,171.45: jonesSUB/ maiaRD1/ cyborgRD2/ cowboySUB/ knightSUB/ ortegaSUB/ sheltonITD/ doberRD1
21 RR for 2,193.25: jonesRD1/ maiaRD1/ cyborgRD2/ cowboyRD3/ manuwaRD2/ ortegaRD3/ filiRD3
15 RR for 1,853.07: JJRD1/ maiaRD2/ cyborgRD3/ manuwaRD3/ filiRD3/ sheltonSUB
15 RR for 1,943.18: TwoodRD4/ cyborgRD2/ cowboyRD3/ manuwaRD3/ ortegaRD3/ filiRD2
15 RR for (paid +200.78) 2,438.80: cyborgRD2/ lamasKO/ ortegaRD3/ filiRD3/ sheltonRD3/ doberRD3
---

hits just keep on comin' :)

+60 units last 3 weeks.. about 20 per week, that's better than i hope for, generally!

if cyborg got the rd 2 finish it would've been another.. idk, 700?

if shelton didn't get robbed, it would've been another... idk, 1500? (yes, really.. including external shit besides standard betting and obviously the RR contributions)

i.
love.
ortega.
 
t6p said:
1.78u Jones NSC -178 +1u
1.25u Jones -5.5 -125 +1u

1u Maia SUB +320 -1u

0.25u Evinger-Cyborg o2.5 +285 +0.73u

0.5u Cerrone SUB +1415 -0.5u

4u Manuwa -160 -4u

2u Lamas +110 +2.2u
0.3u Lamas DEC +383 -0.3u

2u Barao +113 -2u
1u Barao NSC +146 +0u
0.1u Barao ITD +535 -0.1u
0.05u Barao SUB +1275 -0.05u
0.05u Barao RD1 +975 -0.05u

0.5u Ortega +150 +0.75u
0.05u Ortega RD3 +1800 +0.9u

0.1u Barao/Lamas/Manuwa/Maia/Jones +2216 -0.1u
1.05u RR (3s,6) Ortega/Lamas/Barao/Manuwa -3.5/Maia NSC/Jones -5.5 +1.29u
1u RR (2s,3s) Ortega ITD/Lamas ITD/Lawler DEC/Woodley DEC/Jones ITD +66.61u

NET: +66.38u

Wow. Best night ever for me by far. I can't believe everything in that round robin hit. Pretty much broke even on the rest of my plays but 66u on a 1u win risk parlay, man I don't know if I'll ever pull that off again. Had I played that by 4s and 5 too I can't even imagine what the payout must have been. Lucky more than good but I'll take it!
Click to expand...

OMFG, congrats, !!!!!!
 
EzFlyer said:
OMFG, congrats, !!!!!!
Click to expand...

Thank you sir. I actually didn't really consider Woodley decision until I saw you mention it in the discussion thread. After I thought about it more, with the way Wood fights I saw good value in that line and decided to add it to the RR. Big credit to you on that!
 
Yotsuya said:
Lawler R3 0.05u 15.0
Cerrone sub 0.05u 14.65
Lamas R3 + Jones ml 0.06u 25.6
Barao nsc 0.25u 2.46
Maia 0.2u 2.55 / sub 0.2u 4.2
Evinger 0.05u 10.0
Manuwa 1u for 0.76u
Knight 1.5u 2.6
Moicano 3u 2.39
Barao 0.5u 2.24
Click to expand...

This was silly. Moicano giving up all his advantages fighting toe-to-toe and Ortega showing up with really improved boxing, Barao giving up the first takedown in 15 fights and me getting rid of my Lamas nsc-hedge and betting Manuwa just because of an ok arbitrage opportunity.

Lesson: Never bet 3u on a Brazilian to fight smart after his machismo has been questioned in previous fight.

What worked: Never bet even a full unit on a fighter on decline.

To spoil my perfect losing record this event: I had Jones itd 0.2u 3.65, Jones + Moreno 0.3u 2.5 and Jones + Markos 0.2u 2.8 which I had forgot to post.
 
Ugh I got murdered last night. Coming off a good win last card, just can't keep the wins stringed together. Hope most of you made out okay, though, congrats to winners.
 
Wins:
$50 Lamas
$50 Lawler

Losses:
$20 Curran
$35 Barao
$50 Maia
$300 Cormier
$17 DraftKings

Net was -$317, it all rest on that Cormier fight which was going the way I thought it was going to go until D.C. got kicked in the head.
 
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