Your official UFC on Fox 30 bets

0.5u Alvarez NSC +174 -0.5u
0.05u Poirier SUB +950 -0.05u

1u Aldo +100 +1u
1u Aldo DEC +148 -1u
0.1u Aldo SUB +1390 -0.1u

0.5u Jedrzejczyk DEC -125 +0.4u
0.05u Jedrzejczyk RD3 +1975 -0.05u

0.05u Aubin-Mercier KO +1280 -0.05u

1u Mein NSC +170 0u
0.2u Mein ITD +565 -0.2u
0.1u Mein RD3 +1850 -0.1u

0.1u Antigulov KO +1053 -0.1u

0.3u Pearson DEC +315 -0.3u

1u Ansaroff NSC +110 0u

0.15u Ansaroff/Mein/Jedrzejczyk/Aldo +733 +1.1u

0.4u RR (3s,4s,5) Ansaroff DEC/Pearson DEC/Antigulov ITD/Aubin-Mercier DEC/Aldo DEC -0.4u

NET: -0.35u

Got a little too cute with my Aldo bets. Probably wouldn't have played his decision line if I knew I'd get him at + money later. Ah well, small loss.
 
Ansaroff ML +100 1.5u
Aldo ML -125 2u
+3u. Whoo hoo. Oh and also lost all that live betting on oam and MORONo. Thought I didn't track Aldo -125 but it was a 1u bet on Aldo +110 I didn't track lol. Eh fook it. Onto next week!
 
Poirier -156 .5u
Poirier by KO or DEC +120 1u
Poirier KO +190 .13u

Aldo +110 1u
Aldo DEC +151 .33u
Stephens NSC -178 .6u

Jedrzejczyk -3.5 +140 .45u
Torres NSC +233 .33u
Torres KO +1530 .1u

Hernandez +135 1u

Mein +105 1u
Mein ITD +670 .2u
Mein RD3 +2025 .05u

Dawodu/Arnett DNGTD -165 1u
Dawodu -3.5 -160 1u

Antigulov -112 1.5u
Antigulov SUB +245 .3u
Antigulov/Cutelaba U1.5 +118 .33u
Antigulov/Cutelaba U1minute +1600 .05u

Ansaroff/Markos O2.5 -250 2u
Ansaroff DEC +128 .33u
Ansaroff NSC -133 .43u

Chookagian -145 1u

Nicolau -145 1u
Nicolau NSC -186 .6u

Powell/Herrera DNGTD -142 1u
Powell SUB +410 .3u


Should be set unless the Poirier and Nicolau lines comes in a bunch.

+5u. Topped up to 2.33u Chook -147, 2u Poirier ML -152, and bet Powell -105 for .7u.
 
1400$ might be less than 1% of his BR, even if it sounds like alot to you. Also, rule number one: dont think of your BR/stakes as "money".
Yeah, $1400 is more than 1% but still a very low single digit percentage of my bankroll. Luckily all three of my big bets won tonight. I'm trying to go bigger selectively while still having my more typical one of two unit plays for action on every fight.
 
I like Poirier in the ME, yet the only bet I've made on this fight is Eddie KO because the odds were so great. Will probably end up on Poirier ML/ITD and I can use the Eddie KO as a hedge. Still thinking how to hedge on my Antigulov bet, probably with Cutelaba RD1 or something.View attachment 413259
and some trebles:
View attachment 413261
My pre-bets were not good to begin with and went way to big on Antigulov without hedging and even lost a little on Hernandez because I had almost everything on his ITD/KO props, made some really questionable decisions in between fights and live to. I'm on strong antibiotics again and they make me really tired and could hardly stay awake during the fights yesterday, if the effects don't wear off before next weekend, I think I'll pass on staying awake for that one and watch the fights on Sunday morning and go without livebetting for once.
Schermafbeelding 2018-07-29 om 12.54.15.png Schermafbeelding 2018-07-29 om 12.54.32.png
-9,36u
 
My big bets on Ansaroff, Chookagian & Makdessi paid off so even though I was wrong about the co-main & main events I ended up with 7.69 units of profit for a good bounce back card.

UFC on Fox 30 Results


Eddie Alvarez (+150) vs Dustin Poirier $200.00 for $300.00= -$200.00
Eddie Alvarez wins by TKO/KO (+313) $35.00 for $109.55= -$35.00
Eddie Alvarez wins in round 2 (+1000) ~$24.47 for ~$244.65= -~$24.47
Eddie Alvarez wins in round 3 (+1300) ~$24.47 for ~$318.05= -~$24.47
Eddie Alvarez/Dustin Poirier Under 2½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Eddie Alvarez/Dustin Poirier fights ends in KO/TKO/DQ (-205) $205.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Eddie Alvarez/Dustin Poirier time out in fight (+210) ~$16.31 for ~$34.25= ~$34.25
Live In-Play Eddie Alvarez (+145) vs Dustin Poirier $100.00 for $145.00= -$100.00

Jeremy Stephens (+100) vs Jose Aldo $200.00 for $200.00= -$200.00
Jeremy Stephens to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+225) $40.00 for $90.00= -$40.00
Jeremy Stephens wins in round 3 (+1200) ~$16.31 for ~$195.72= -~$16.31
Jeremy Stephens wins in round 3 (+1024) $10.00 for $102.40= -$10.00

Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins by 3 round decision (-140) vs Tecia Torres $140.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Alexander Hernandez (+103) vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier $100.00 for $103.00= $103.00
Alexander Hernandez wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+400) $40.00 for $160.00= -$40.00
Alexander Hernandez wins in round 1 (+850) ~$24.47 for ~$207.95= -~$24.47
Alexander Hernandez/Olivier Aubin-Mercier Under 2½ (+130) $100.00 for $130.00= -$100.00
Live In-Play Olivier Aubin-Mercier (+170) vs Alexander Hernandez $100.00 for $170.00= -$100.00

Jordan Mein (-115) vs Alex Morono $115.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Islam Makhachev -3½ points (-265) vs Kajan Johnson $198.75 for $75.00= $75.00

Hakeem Dawodu/Austin Arnett Under 1½ (+122) $100.00 for $122.00= -$100.00
Hakeem Dawodu wins in round 1 (+200) $45.00 for $90.00= -$45.00

Gadzhimurad Antigulov (+100) vs Ion Cutelaba $200.00 for $200.00= -$200.00
Gadzhimurad Antigulov wins by submission (+165) ~$32.62 for ~$53.82= -~$32.62
Ion Cutelaba wins in round 1 (+400) ~$16.31 for ~$65.24= ~$65.24
Ion Cutelaba wins in round 1 (+375) $15.00 for $56.25= $56.25
Gadzhimurad Antigulov wins in round 2 (+575) $20.00 for $115.00= -$20.00
Gadzhimurad Antigulov wins in round 3 (+1125) $15.00 for $168.75= -$15.00
Gadzhimurad Antigulov wins in round 3 (+1200) ~$16.31 for ~$195.72= -~$16.31

John Makdessi (-170) vs Ross Pearson $340.00 for $200.00= $200.00
John Makdessi (-171) vs Ross Pearson ~$897.05 for ~$524.59= ~$524.59
John Makdessi wins by 3 round decision (+128) $100.00 for $128.00= $128.00
John Makdessi wins by split decision (+304) ~$24.47 for ~$74.37= -~$24.47

Katlyn Chookagian (-150) vs Alexis Davis $300.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Katlyn Chookagian (-159) vs Alexis Davis ~$897.05 for ~$564.18= ~$564.18
Katlyn Chookagian wins by TKO/KO (+698) $15.00 for $104.70= -$15.00
Katlyn Chookagian wins in round 3 (+2200) ~$16.31 for ~$358.82= -~$16.31
Alexis Davis wins by submission (+1150) $35.00 for $402.50= -$35.00

Matheus Nicolau (-178) vs Dustin Ortiz $178.00 for $100.00= -$178.00
Matheus Nicolau (-179) vs Dustin Ortiz $179.00 for $100.00= -$179.00

Nina Ansaroff (-130) vs Randa Markos $260.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Nina Ansaroff (-130) vs Randa Markos $260.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Nina Ansaroff wins by split decision (+260) ~$24.47 for ~$63.61= -~$24.47

Devin Powell (-105) vs Alvaro Herrera $105.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Devin Powell wins by submission (+300) $35.00 for $105.00= -$35.00
Devin Powell/Alvaro Herrera Over 1½ (-172) $86.00 for $50.00= -$86.00

Fights to go distance over 6½ (-224) $67.20 for $30.00= $30.00
Fights to go distance over 7½ (+119) $30.00 for $35.70= -$30.00
Fights to go distance over 8½ (+271) $15.00 for $40.65= -$15.00
Fights to go distance over 9½ (+895) $7.00 for $62.65= -$7.00
Fights to go distance over 10½ (+2950) $5.00 for $147.50= -$5.00
Fights to go distance over 11½ (+16900) $3.00 for $507.00 = -$3.00

Eddie Alvarez wins POTN bonus (+284) ~$16.31 for ~$46.32= -~$16.31
Jeremy Stephens wins POTN bonus (+220) ~$16.31 for ~$35.88= -~$16.31
Hakeem Dawodu wins POTN bonus (+234) ~$16.31 for ~$38.17= -~$16.31
Gadzhimurad Antigulov wins POTN bonus (+272) ~$16.31 for ~$44.36= -~$16.31

Eddie Alvarez/Dustin Poirier wins FOTN bonus (+183) ~$24.47 for ~$44.77= -~$24.47
Alexander Hernandez/Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins FOTN bonus (+600) ~$24.47 for ~$146.79= -~$24.47
-----
Sub-Total= -$100.75
Sub-Total= ~$870.18

Total Profit= $769.43
 
-0.8u I was too greedy betting on Aldo by decision and not on his money line, It would have been a great night if it wasn't for that mistake.
It wasn't greed. Aldo has not scored a KO in half a decade. Stephens has always had a good chin. Very few saw the Aldo KO ahead of time.
 
It wasn't greed. Aldo has not scored a KO in half a decade. Stephens has always had a good chin. Very few saw the Aldo KO ahead of time.
I've preached this before but I always think it's a bad idea to only bet an underdog via a prop and have nothing on the moneyline for exactly this reason. You don't want to be sharp enough to predict the upset yet lose money because you thought it could only happen one way.
 

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