Your Official UFN 109 Bets

[2bet]

2u Akhmedov - 3.00 +4u

2u Musoke/Velickovic >2.5 + Smith/Camozzi >2.5 + Gustaffson >2.5 - 3.76 +5.52u

2u Held + Taleb + Till - 1.95 -2u

2u Held + Munhoz + Hermansson/Nicholson <2.5 - 3.37 -2u

2u Musoke + Gus - 2.47 -2u


1u Oezdemir/Cirkunov >1.5 - 1.90 -1u

1u Sobotta - 1.90 +0.9u

1u Musoke + Sobotta/Saunders >2.5 - 2.74 -1u

TOTAL: +2,42u
if Held didn't brainfart I would have made +6,64u more
I made an additional 4,62u live betting Akhmedov though, so it's +7u overall.
Gotta be happy with that, satisfying result <cheer>

 

[pytycrys]

2u Razak + Till @ 2.55

2u Cirkunov + Munhoz @ 1.96

2u over 2.5 Camozzi + Taleb @ 2.02

2u over 2.5 Musoke-Velickovic @ 1.66

2u over 2.5 Held-Hadzovic @ 2.00

0.4u Taleb submission @ 17

1u Gus UD @ 4.50

1u Gus Dec @ 3.60

0.2u Hadzovic R3 @ 34

1u Musoke DEC @ 2.40

0.3u - o2.5 Gus, Misha, Sobotta, Al Hassan, Taleb, Munhoz, o2.5 Madadi, o2.5 Musoke, o2.5 Held, o2.5 Camozzi, Till @ 89

0.2u Gus decision + Cox decision + under 9.5 Allen + Brook + Okolie R1 @ 81.5 (last few from boxing)

Long term parlay : 1u Silva,Sobotta,Hermansson,Jones,Overeem,Gastelum,Shevchenko,Holly Holm, Kevin Lee,Tybura @ 118.5

Total +0.23u and one great parlay still going on.

However...
Made some sick freerolls during the event, wrote them specifically during the PBP topic, that got me up to a total of +35.8u .

Great event, could have been better if Gus waited a bit more and Cirkunov would not have been nuked.
Due to exams I won't be as active for UFC 212, but coming back strong for Hunt vs Lewis Fight Night

 

[Deleted member 448575]

up $800 this UFC event, still down $3100 this week (had a rough week in tennis betting)

Hit Sobota and Oezdemir, missed the over in Oezdemir/Cirkunov and missed the under in Gustafsson/Texeira

 

[EzFlyer]

UFN 109 Net: +1,376.41
GT +591: 152 for 898.75 - 21 parlays / GT DEC: 10 parlays / GT RD1: 4 parlays / GT +5.5: 100 for 142.50 / GT NSC: 50 for 126.50 / DEC: 50 for 97.50 / RD4: 13 for 123.50 / RD5: 12 for 144
cirkunov -229: 457.50 for 200 / cirkunov KO: 30 for 154.50 / cirkunov RD2: 10 parlays
saunders -135: 270 for 200 / saunders DEC: 21 parlays
akhmedov +329: 217.50 for 714.50 - 21 parlays / akhmedov DEC: 30 for 195 - 10 parlays / akhmedov RD3: 4 parlays
enkamp +350: 30 for 105 / taleb RD2: 10 parlays
hermansson +102: 100 for 101.67 / hermansson NSC: 80 for 99.20 / ITD: 90 for 123
stasiak +725: 40 for 290 / munhoz SUB: 50 for 145 / munhoz RD2: 10 parlays
camozzi +250: 50 for 125 / camozzi RD3: 10 for 122.50 - 4 parlays / camozzi NSC: 92.50 for 50 / O2.5; 135 for 100
madadi +160: 150 for 240 / madadi DEC: 21 parlays / madadi RD3: 4 parlays / O2.5: 210 for 150
velickovic +175: 200 for 349 / velickovic DEC: 21 parlays / velickovic SUB: 10 for 94 / velickovic RD3: 10 for 200 - 4 parlays / velickovic NSC: 2 for 41.60 / O2.5: 75 for 50
till -275: 275 for 100 / till DEC: 21 parlays / ayari +3.5: 50 for 82.50
hadzovic +265: 50 for 132.50 / hadzovic DEC: 10 parlays / hadzovic RD3: 4 parlays / hadzovic +3.5: 50 for 80 - 21 parlays
props
FOTN: hermansson-nicholson: 10 for 70
parlays
30 RR for 1,123.46: GTDEC/ CirkRD2/ AkhmedovDEC/ talebRD2/ munhozRD2/ hadzovicDEC
49 RR for (paid -19.56) 1,435.80: GT/ saundersDEC/ akhmedov/ madadiDEC/ bojanDEC/ tillDEC/ hadzovic+3.5
12 RR for (paid +368) 4,323.20: GTRD1/ akhmedovRD3/ camozziRD3/ madadiRD3/ velickovicRD3/ hadzovicRD3
---

yea, it's another very good result. i get that. but i lost over a grand in the last 3 fights, so i'm not loving the situation too much. but yea, big picture. etc

saunders was a mistake all week, and i knew it.

cirkunov i still say was a fluke, but just screw laying big juice. even if it's a "good price."

 

[NinjaCat456]

2.4u Till + Munhoz + Cirkunov to win 2u

RR 0.468u Musoke/Vel O2.5, Silva/Madadi O2.5, Gus/Glover O2.5, Camozzi/Smith FGTD, Herm/Nicholson ITD to win just under 2u

Lotto 0.032u Till ITD + Musoke points + Hermansson + Munhoz ITD + Silva + Taleb + Alhassan/Omari O1.5 to win 2.35u

Prob have a crack at some live bets as we go too.

Down around half a unit. Perfect RR saved me from a bigger loss. Would have been 4.4u richer had Misha not shat the bed like that. So pissed off I didn't hege with Volkan when all my instincts were telling me to do so.

 

[BigNick100]

.5u Till ITD @ +101- $50
$15 Till in round 1 @ +250 - -$15
$10 Till in round 2 @ +450 - -$10
$10 Till in round 3 @ +900 = -$10

5u Gus Unanimous DEC @345 - $50
(Decided to hedge with Gus in round 3,4,5 in case)
$10 Gus in round 3 @ +725 - $10
$10 Gus in round 4 @ +1225 - $10
$10 Gus in round 5 @ +1600 - +$160
.5u Sobotta - DEC@ +230 - -$50
1u Sobotta - ML@ +100 - +$100
.2u Omair - DEC@ +550 - +$110
.5u Omair/Alhassan starts 2 @+100 - +$50
.25u Omair/Alhassan starts 3 @ +210 - $52.50
1u Smith/Camozzi over 2.5@-165 - +$60.6
.25u Enkamp DEC @+604 - -$25
.25 Enkamp ML @ +310 --$25
.25u Munhoz SUB - @+180 -$25
.25u Nicholson ML - @+145 -$25


Misha/Till/Munhoz - $125 for $108 - -$125
Misha/Till/Brunson/Tybura/Hendricks - $75 for $261 - -$75
Sobotta/Till/Tybura/Chiesa - $50 for $316 (PENDING)
Sobotta/Till/Cheisa/Gus Unanimous DEC - $20 for $445 - -$20
Sobotta/Till/Gus Unanimous DEC - $25 for $265 - -$25


Hail mary parlays -
Misha/Sobotta/Munhoz/Till/Smith-Camozzi over 2.5/Madadi/Silva over 2.5 = $20 for $109 - $20
Held/Till/Silva/Munhoz/Nicholas/Sobotta/Misha/Gus - $20 to win $355 - $20

Added late - Oezdemir ITD - $35 to win $207.90 @+594
Oezdemir win be DEC - $35 to win $245.00 @+700

Live Bet -

$10 Silva @+300 = $30
$25 Omair ML @+180 = $45


Total = +$191 - with $316 pending on the outcome of Tybura and Cheisa.

If Misha won and Gus got the dec I would have walked with a extra $652 or even more depending on future fights in the parlays. Misha's and Gus not getting the Dec hurt but still in the profit

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

+15u great card

 

[ChoKuRei]

Hit 1k bet on hermansson @-125 for $800

Lost $300 parlay including Till/Munhoz/Saunders/cirkunov/Gus

Wanted to hedge with sobotta if this parlay didnt hit but honestly thought it was solid

Also lost four 12 team parlays for $5 each ($-20)

So +$480 for tonight. Honestly thought ide do better but ill take it... Should have just stuck to singles like i told myself i would. Hitting hermansson is what got me profit tonight and i felt that omar would win that shit and was going to hit it @-200 but some shmuck on here talked me out of it lol (just playin luv y'all)

Looking at this brazil card like a dog, like a bully, get ready to bang again...

 

[chemmy]

Gustafsson 1.91 units to win 1
Akhmedov 0.45 units to win 1
Smith 0.48 units to win 1
Till/Ayari 0.5 units to win 0.71
Parlay Till + 02.5 Musoke/Velickovic 1 unit to win 0.93

Close to a perfect event for me, just needed Till to finish him off after he wobbled him one of those times.

 

[Sadistics]

Teixera +230 1.5u
Teixera/Gus O2.5 -125 1u
Teixera NSC +253 .5u
Teixera +5.5 points +155 .5u
Teixera Split DEC +1460 .1u

Cirkunov -260 6.5u
Cirkunov RD3 +800 .3u

Sobotta +100 1u
Sobotta DEC +230 .3u

Alhassan KO -140 1u
Alhassan/Akhmedov ends within 1st minute +455 .2u
Alhassan/Akhmedov U0.5rds .2u

Taleb DEC -125 .5u

Munhoz RD1 +250 .5u
Munhoz ITD -120 .5u
Munhoz SUB +180 .5u
Munhoz/Stasiak U2.5 +120 .5u

Smith +185 1u
Smith/Cammozi O2.5 -140 3.5u
Smith DEC +375 .5u

Madadi RD3 +2525 .1u
Madadi DEC +210 .5u

Musoke -130 1u
Musoke/Velickovic O2.5 -158 5u
Musoke NSC -121 2u
Musoke DEC +175 .5u

Till RD1 +300 .5u
Till KO +180 .5u

Hadzovic +260 .5u
Hadzovic RD3 +2400 .1u
Hadzovic +3.5 +145 .5u

Munhoz -476 + Taleb -434 + Cirkunov -370 2u for 1.8u

Munhoz -450 + Till -300 + Taleb -300 2u for 2.2u

Munhoz -450 + Musoke -120 1u for 1.2u

Nicholson NSC -138 + Cammozi NSC -227 1u for 1.5u

Munhoz -3.5 -425 + Nicholson +3.5 -205 + Alhassan NSC -370 1u for 1.3u

Cirkunov -300 + Torres -270 (won) + Munhoz -490 + Till -350 .75u for 2u

Cirkunov + Till + Munhoz + Smith/Cammozi O2.5 + Taleb + Musoke/Velickovic O2.5 .5u for 3u

About 50u wagered, yet I feel good about every bet

-6u
Like most of you, had Cirk won it would've closed every parlay.


Some thoughts on the event

Glover is a tough mofo, and extremely susceptible to uppercuts.

If only that weak ass hook of Volkan's landed a millimetre elsewhere.

Both Saunders and Camozzi may be getting cut for the 3rd time.

Wtf was up with Taleb, he was slipping all over the place.

 

[Yotsuya]

No strong picks. Mainly just practicing u/o and prop hedges, line movement predictions, choosing the opening side to lb, parlay insurances etc. My first rr got out of hand. It was supposed to be 0.1u total, not per parlay.

Gus - Tex un dec 0.5u 3.75
Gustafson not ITD 1u 1.76
Teixeira 1u 3.4
Teixeira 0u for 1.5u
Teixeira sub 0.1u 11.75
Cirk - Volk o1.5 0.5u 1.9 P
Akhmedov 0.75u 3.0
Akhmedov dec 0.25u 6.5
Saunders 1u 1.95 5d
Saunders - Sabotta 0.5u o2.5
Taleb 1u 1.43
Taleb sub 0.1u 17.0
Nicholson 0.25u 2.55
Velickovic 0.25u 2.55
Velickovic R3 0.05u 21.0
Musoke - Velickovic o2.5 0.5u
Madadi 0.5 2.4
Madadi - Silva u2.5 0.1u 2.8
Ayari 0.25u 4.1
Ayari itd 0.1u 16.00
Hadzovic 0.25u 3.75

Ayari - Till u2.5 + Tex +5.5 0.1u
Gus (1.5) + Cirk (1.3) 1u 1,98
Sabotta (2.0) + Cirk (1.25) 0.1u 2.53
Smith - Camozzi o2.5 + Till 0.4u 2.1
Smith (2.75) - Enkamp (3.6) 0.05u 9.9
Velickovic (2.55) + Nicholson (2.55) 0.2u
Gus ITD (2.03) + Sabotta (3.1) dec 0.05u
Hometown undercard sweep RR: Enkamp (3.6) + Hermansson (1.77) + Madadi (2.4) + Musoke (1.74) 0.6 u to win 9.5 u

-1.5u and another -1u live betting (Musoke mostly). Could have been worse considering, that I still can't hit my own props, none of the insurance parlays hit and I had an oversized fan bet. Fourth card I tried to bet from top to bottom. Still +10u since semipro debut at UFC 210.

 

[Shoulder]

View attachment 232707

Got greedy with the Sobotta and Hermansson props instead of MLs, so 3U down and about a 1U up LB.

Don't know why I didn't fade Camozzi more, there was such an amazing line.

 

[King_Brown]

Got greedy with the Sobotta and Hermansson props instead of MLs, so 3U down and about a 1U up LB.

Don't know why I didn't fade Camozzi more, there was such an amazing line.

Trevor was big fade material too. Don't blame yourself. On paperCamozzi had better striking and has shown some ability to defend takedowns. He looked very shit tonight. Wonder what happened.

 

[King_Brown]

Camozzi by decision
Held/Till/Munhoz parlay
Nicholson
Taleb/Alhassan parlay
Saunders/Silva parlay
Misha/Gus parlay

Bad luck bro next time!

 

[King_Brown]

If my current bankroll was 2850 and i won 1500 how many units I won?

 

[Shoulder]

Trevor was big fade material too. Don't blame yourself. On paperCamozzi had better striking and has shown some ability to defend takedowns. He looked very shit tonight. Wonder what happened.

Yeah, maybe your right. Still got a win so it's better than most of my other plays...

 

[Sham5916910]

Had cirk to close a 3 teamer and 5 teamer giant 12 unit swing. Got greedy should have covered my loss when all other legs hit with volk sitting @ +400. 4.5 unit loss luckily sob hit but only had 0.7 units on him and omari +300 after r1 and omari dec +700 after r1 stopped it being a 6 unit loss. After an amazing start lost two events in a row. Thank fuck no more 3 week breaks so i dont have to dwell on this for long

 

[Jamah]

If my current bankroll was 2850 and i won 1500 how many units I won?

1u = 1% bankroll

52.6 units

 

[King_Brown]

1u = 1% bankroll

52.6 units

I havent spend my last year winning so i could easily add 10k to my bankroll that being said units won doesn't mean anything.

 

[Mcgregorian]

Lost $1350.....

Had Cirk of won i would have been even stevens. Had a cry and now getting back on the horse for 212