Your Official UFN 112 Bets

0.5u Christensen +325
1u Guida +280
2.5u Penn +200/+175
0.5u Penn DEC +545
1u Quinones +130
0.5u Herrig +137

added:

0.33u Herrig NSC +200
0.23u Herrig SUB +1305

1u Boetsch KO/TKO OR DEC +199
 
1u Michael Chiesa @2.20
1u Justine Kish @2.00
1u Vettori+Means @1,95
0.5u Means ITD @1.83
0.5u Koch ITD @2.37
0.38u Hendricks + o1.5 Christensen-Reyes @3.10
 
1u Chiesa +100
1u Johnny Case +160
0.66u Guida +185
0.33u Guida DEC +375
0.5u Christensen +325
2.5u Stansbury -125
1u Esparza/Moroz o2.5 + Herrig/Kish o2.5 -110
1.33u Herrig +135

And a goofy lotto RR 2-5, $13 to win 90k
Case R3 + Esparza SUB + Means R3 + Christensen ITD + Chiesa R4

TOTAL RISK: 8.33u

Lot of dog money up for me tonight, so could be a rough one. May still make a play on Herrig during the card depending how the night is going

EDIT: Lost a baseball bet play so just tilt-added Herrig now. I do like the play though
 
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2.5u Lee -115
2u Esparza -200
1u Herrig -111
1u Penn/Siver O2.5 -129
0.66u Guida +285
0.62u Case +224
0.5u Christensen +275

1.5u Means ITD -120
 
1.75u Boetsch - 3.45 + 4.5u Hendricks - 1.62
2.25u Koch - 1.45

2u Means - 1.50
1.5u Penn - 2.60
1u Lee - 1.87
1u Kimball - 2.60
0.5u Hendricks/Boetsch o2.5 - 1.62
0.5u Means ITD - 1.83
0.5u Means ITD + Horcher - 2.30

0.5u Esparza DEC + Lee/Chiesa ends ITD - 2.59
0.25u Penn DEC - 5.00
0.25u Koch ITD - 2.37
0.25u Penn DEC + Hendricks/Boetsch o2.5 + Koch ITD - 22.62

0.25u Lee ITD - 2.70
0.25u Christensen - 3.83
0.1u Means R3 - 12.00


Total: -2,16u

carnac_the_magnificent-resized-600.jpg

Putting money on BJ Penn in 2017, buying out of your Boetsch bet, going way to big on Koch despite a shitty line



 
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Chiesa by SUB (+250) risk: 0.5u

Boetsch by DEC (+391) risk: 1u

Herrig (+140) risk: 0.75u

Penn (+150) risk: 0.75u
Penn ITD (+334) risk: 0.25u

Koch ITD (+137) risk: 1u
Guida by DEC (+374) risk: 0.25u

Parlay: [Esparza (-225) + Vettori (-335)] = (-114) risk: 3u
 
2,5u BJ Penn 2.75
2,5u Lee + Mayweather 2.10
1,5u Esparza + Vettori 1.79
1,5u Herrig 1.90
1,25u Boetsch/Hendricks U2.5 + Means/Garcia ITD 3.31
1,25u Means + Stansbury/Kimball ITD 2.20
1,0u Esparza + Stansbury 2.20
0,75u both ♀ fights O2.5 2.02
0,75u Gordon + Vettori 2.20
0,5u Case 2.25
0,5u Penn/Siver O2.5 + Christensen/Reyes ITD 2.41
0,5u Chiesa ITD 2.75 (small hedge on the 2,5u Lee ML)
0,25u Guida 3.75

After Hendricks kills Boetsch I will make another 5.4u (closes 3 parlays, initial risk 1,25u).
I had a fourth big parlay to be closed by a Hendricks win, but I cashed out on that one
- it would have broken my heart if Hendricks somehow hurts his angle and I get out no money at all from my precious parlays.
I am still very confident in Hendricks though!

Initially I had 2.5u on Boetsch/Hendricks U2.5, I cashed it out though and did the parlay with Means/Garcia ITD instead.

If Lee loses I hope he gets brutally finished at least (like the finish that Maia got on Story) - I really dislike that dude.

GL to everyone!
 
Not so much time to write due to holiday.

1u Penn decision @ 6.00

2u Means itd @ 1.80

2u Hendricks dec @ 2.70

3u Esparza @ 1.47

2u o2.5 Penn-Siver @ 1.80

1.5u over 1.5 on Penn, Hendricks, Herrig, Esparza, Powell @ 4.21

0.8u Penn dec, Hendricks Dec, Means itd, o2.5 Herrig, o2.5 Esparza @ 53

Bol to everybody
 
2.5u Lee -120

0.5u Herrig NSC +225

0.2u Means/Garcia GTD +385
0.1u Garcia DEC +1250

0.625u Penn/Siver GTD -125

0.25u Guida DEC +425

0.1u Case RD3 +1500

0.25u Means ITD/Esparza/Boetsch-Hendricks o2.5/Chiesa-Lee ITD +385
 
UFN 112 Risk: 1,617.25
Lee -120: 240 for 200 / Lee SUB: 30 for 174 / lee RD1: 10 parlays / chiesa DEC: 9 parlays / chiesa SUB: 30 for 87 - 10 parlays / chiesa RD3: 4.50 parlays
boetsch +155: 100 for 155 / boetsch ITD: 19 parlays / hendricks
herrig: 0 for 70 / herrig ITD: 21 for 199.29 - 6 parlays / herrig RD1: 4.50 parlays / herrig NSC: 100 for 143.62 - 21 parlays / kish
christensen +300: 33 for 99 - 21 parlays / christensen SUB: 6 parlays / reyes
means ITD: 90 for 75 / means RD2: 31 parlays / means RD3: 10 for 97.50 / DEC: 9 parlays / garcia DEC: 10 for 100 - 6 parlays
penn DEC: 22 for 99 - 19 parlays / penn RD1: 4.50 parlays / penn NSC: 40 for 46 / O2.5: 67.50 for 50 / siver: 0 for 5.50
koch -180: 99 for 55 / koch SUB: 25 for 98.75 - 31 parlays / guida DEC: 9 parlays
miranda +223: 100 for 222.50 - 21 parlays / miranda DEC: 22 for 148.50 / miranda ITD: 10.50 parlays / miranda NSC: 29 parlays / vettori
moroz +190: 50 for 95 - 10 parlays / moroz DEC: 20 for 111.60 / moroz SUB: 10.50 parlays / moroz NSC: 50 for 65 / esparza
powell: 21 parlays / powell SUB: 11 for 99 - 10.50 parlays / powell NSC: 25 for 57.50 / horcher
quinones +135: 50 for 67.50 / quinones DEC: 25 for 80.75 - 41 parlays / gordon
stansbury +108: 100 for 108.06 / stansbury DEC: 9 parlays / stansbury KO: 10 for 108.50 - 4.50 parlays / kimball
case +160: 50 for 80 / case RD3: 10 for 130 / martin ITD: 21 parlays / martin RD1: 18 for 99 - 6 parlays
props
FOTN: lee-chiesa: 0 for 76.50
parlays
56 RR for 3,539.63: herrigNSC/ christensen/ meansRD2/ kochSUB/ miranda/ powell/ quinonesDEC/ martinITD
21 RR for 1,751.36: herrigITD/ christSUB/ garciaDEC/ mirandaITD/ morozSUB/ powellSUB/ martinRD1
20 RR for 1,228.45: chiesaSUB/ pennDEC/ kochSUB/ mirandaNSC/ moroz/ quinonesDEC
21 RR for 2,788.32: chiesaDEC/ boetschITD/ garciameansDEC/ pennDEC/ guidaDEC/ mirandaNSC/ stansburyDEC
15.75 RR for 1,636.96: chiesaRD3/ herrigRD1/ pennRD3/ mirandaITD/ morozSUB/ powellSUB/ stansburyKO
25 RR for 528.87: leeRD1/ boetschITD/ meansRD2/ mirandaNSC/ quinonesDEC
---

really weird card to bet on.

no strong leans anywhere.

only fight with significant action for me is lee-chiesa, but even that one, i'm looking to live bet chiesa, potentially.

just having fun with the RR's as i don't see a ton of good spots on the card, frankly.
 
Lee
Hendricks
Herrig
Reyes by ko or tko
Koch/Means parlay
Carla by dec
BJ
Horcher/Vettori parlay
 
UFN 112 Risk $2387.77

Kevin Lee (-120) vs Mike Chiesa $360.00 for $300.00
Kevin Lee/ Michael Chiesa fight ends in submission (+113) $40.00 for $45.20

Tim Boetsch (+180) vs Johny Hendricks $200.00 for $360.00
Tim Boetsch wins by TKO/KO (+435) $25.00 for $108.75
Tim Boetsch wins in round 2 (+1200) ~$12.25 for ~$147.00
Tim Boetsch wins in round 3 (+1800) ~$26.95 for ~$485.10

Felice Herrig (-120) vs Justine Kish $240.00 for $200.00
Felice Herrig scorecards = no action (+225) $100.00 for $225.00
Felice Herrig wins by submission (+740) $25.00 for $185.00

Joachim Christensen (+315) vs Dominick Reyes $50.00 for $157.50

Tim Means (-313) vs Alex Garcia $313.00 for $100.00
Tim Means/Alex Garcia Over 1½ (-103) $77.25 for $75.00
Tim Means wins inside distance (-177) $88.50 for $50.00
Tim Means wins in round 3 (+800) $25.00 for $200.00
Tim Means wins in round 3 (+1100) ~$26.95 for ~$296.45

BJ Penn (+150) vs Dennis Siver $100.00 for $150.00
BJ Penn wins by decision (+450) $50.00 for $225.00

Clay Guida (+305) vs Erik Koch $50.00 for $152.50
Clay Guida wins by submission (+1850) $30.00 for $555.00
Clay Guida/Erik Koch Under 2½ (+130) $76.92 for $100.00

Vitor Miranda (+320) vs Marvin Vettori $50.00 for $160.00

Carla Esparza wins by decision (-135) vs Maryna Moroz $54.00 for $40.00

Devin Powell (+380) vs Darrell Horcher $40.00 for $152.00

Jared Gordon (-150) vs Michel Quinones $75.00 for $50.00

Tony Martin/Johnny Case Under 2½ (+162) $50.00 for $81.00

Josh Stansbury (-165) vs Jeremy Kimball $165.00 for $100.00

Tim Means/Alex Garcia FOTN award winner (+900) $10.00 for $90.00

Round Robin of two team parlays. Risk ~$26.95
Joachim Christensen/Dominick Reyes fight ends in round 3 (+800)
Tim Means/Alex Garcia fight ends in round 3 (+650)
BJ Penn/Dennis Siver fight ends in round 3 (+800)
Clay Guida/Erik Koch fight ends in round 3 (+750)
Vitor Miranda/Marvin Vettori fight ends in round 3 (+800)
Devin Powell/Darrell Horcher fight ends in round 3 (+900)
Jared Gordon/Michel Quinones fight ends in round 3 (+900)
Johhny Case/Tony Martin fight ends in round 3 (+890)
 
1u Michael Chiesa @2.20
1u Justine Kish @2.00
1u Vettori+Means @1,95
0.5u Means ITD @1.83
0.5u Koch ITD @2.37
0.38u Hendricks + o1.5 Christensen-Reyes @3.10

Shitty night , -2.4u
 
1u Chiesa +100
1u Johnny Case +160 -1u

0.66u Guida +185 +1.22u
0.33u Guida DEC +375 +1.24u

0.5u Christensen +325
2.5u Stansbury -125 -2.5u

1u Esparza/Moroz o2.5 + Herrig/Kish o2.5 -110 +0.9u
1.33u Herrig +135 +1.8u


And a goofy lotto RR 2-5, $13 to win 90k
Case R3 + Esparza SUB + Means R3 + Christensen ITD + Chiesa R4

TOTAL RISK: 8.33u

Lot of dog money up for me tonight, so could be a rough one. May still make a play on Herrig during the card depending how the night is going

EDIT: Lost a baseball bet play so just tilt-added Herrig now. I do like the play though

ADDED LIVE:

0.2u Case/Martin FOTN +900 +1.8u
0.33u Moroz LIVE -0.33u
0.33u Miranda Live -0.33u

1.33u Guida ml +300 +4u
0.33u Guida DEC +385 +1.27u

0.33u BJ DEC +340 -0.33u
0.4u (Total, lol) RR in 2s and 5: MirandaNSC + GuidaDEC + ChristensenITD + HerrigDEC + ChiesaSUB +0.33u
0.33u Herrig +135 +0.45u
0.33u Herrig DEC +225 +0.74u
0.66u Herrig LIVE +140 +0.92u

1u Chiesa +115
0.66u ChiesaSUB +243

+7.02u (assuming Case/Martin FOTN). But man, what a potential swing by that brutal Yamasaki stoppage. Chasing worked shockingly well though and I finished up so I can't complain

EDIT: Make that +5.22u. Can't believe they robbed Case/Martin of a bonus
 
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can't believe i managed to make it out tonight with a profit. i took huge losses on koch and bj - shame on me, both were horrible plays. the frustrating thing is i got koch at -175 thinking he was value, i would have never played -350.

i really feel bad about that one, like i need to question my decision making because koch was just a horrible parlay leg. perhaps i should have watched more tape, i just felt koch would be able to defend takedowns and was the superior striker.

it feels like every event there is one fighter (usually a fav) that costs me a huge payday. oh well, a profit is a profit.

i got the last 5 fights perfect which saved my ass.

WINS

Esparza, vettori £100 returns £189

Horcher, means £100 returns £205

Means, reyes £200 returns £334

Herrig £200 returns £440

Boetsch, lee £100 returns £558

LOSSES

Chael, stansbury, penn £50 returns £311

Case £10 returns £21

Quinones £50 returns £112

Means dec, vettori sub, herrig dec, reyes ko £15 returns £1126

Koch, reyes, £300 returns £642

Means, horcher, Koch, reyes, lee, vettori, overeem, whitakker, Shevchenko £100 returns £5362

Penn £115 returns £316

Penn £80 returns £190

PROFIT: £306
 
2.5u Lee -120 +2.08u

0.5u Herrig NSC +225 +0u

0.2u Means/Garcia GTD +385 +0.77u
0.1u Garcia DEC +1250 -0.1u

0.625u Penn/Siver GTD -125 +0.5u

0.25u Guida DEC +425 +1.06u

0.1u Case RD3 +1500 -0.1u

0.25u Means ITD/Esparza/Boetsch-Hendricks o2.5/Chiesa-Lee ITD +385 -0.25u

Added:
0.25u Herrig +140 +0.35u
0.1u Hendricks DEC/Lee ITD +634 -0.1u
0.1u Lee RD1 +450 +0.45u

NET: +4.66u

Really needed a solid night tonight and got it. I liked this matchup for Lee since the fight was announced, wishing I went bigger in hindsight. I felt like I was more selective than usual this card and it worked out for me. Super pumped for international fight week.
 
can't believe i managed to make it out tonight with a profit. i took huge losses on koch and bj - shame on me, both were horrible plays. the frustrating thing is i got koch at -175 thinking he was value, i would have never played -350.

i really feel bad about that one, like i need to question my decision making because koch was just a horrible parlay leg. perhaps i should have watched more tape, i just felt koch would be able to defend takedowns and was the superior striker.

it feels like every event there is one fighter (usually a fav) that costs me a huge payday. oh well, a profit is a profit.

i got the last 5 fights perfect which saved my ass.

WINS

Esparza, vettori £100 returns £189

Horcher, means £100 returns £205

Means, reyes £200 returns £334

Herrig £200 returns £440

Boetsch, lee £100 returns £558

LOSSES

Chael, stansbury, penn £50 returns £311

Case £10 returns £21

Quinones £50 returns £112

Means dec, vettori sub, herrig dec, reyes ko £15 returns £1126

Koch, reyes, £300 returns £642

Means, horcher, Koch, reyes, lee, vettori, overeem, whitakker, Shevchenko £100 returns £5362

Penn £115 returns £316

Penn £80 returns £190

PROFIT: £306

I thought id like koch but dropped him for 2 reasons. Guida wrestlefuckin kawajiri means he has caveman strength and kochs injuries just meant i didnt know where he was at.
 
A few more plays than intended, added a pseudo-hedge on Lee. Should've passed on the Quinones fight, the Kimball fight, and Guida, but I at least had the resolve to pass on the BJ fight! If line movement allows I'll be buying out of my Guida bet and will play Koch ITD, will also play Herrig/Kish FOTN and Lee/Chiesa FOTN

Lee -120 2.4u
Chiesa SUB +249 .5u

Boetsch +177 1u
Boetsch NSC +128 .5u

Means -200 2u
Means KO +110 .5u

Guida +280 .4u
Guida/Koch U2.5 +137 .5u

Vettori -155 2u

Esparza -168 3u
Esparza SUB +650 .3u
Esparza -3.5 +150 .5u

Horcher DEC +110 1u

Quinones NSC -118 .5u

Case +160 .5u
Case RD3 +1950 .2u

Kimball DEC +406 .25u


Vettori -210 + Reyes -275 3u for 3.05u

Vettori -210 + Esparza -210 2u for 2.35u

Chandler -565 (Bellator) + Means -240 2u for 1.35u

Bader +5.5 -245 (Bellator) + Kish +3.5 -215 1u for 1.1u

Edit: passed on Kish/Herrig FOTN at +500, took Lee/Chiesa FOTN +400 .25u. Also added Guida/Koch U2.5.

+14u including LB consisting of Esparza -200, Kish +200, Means -120, Boetsch +110/+140.

Upped the unit size by 50% after last event so I'm very happy I'm not only up but up significantly
 
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UFN 112 Net: -856.70
Lee -123: 490 for 400 / Lee SUB: 30 for 174 / lee RD1: 10 parlays / chiesa DEC: 9 parlays / chiesa SUB: 30 for 87 - 10 parlays / chiesa RD3: 4.50 parlays
boetsch +468: 55 for 257.50 / boetsch ITD: 19 parlays
herrig +188: 250 for 470
/ herrig ITD: 21 for 199.29 - 6 parlays / herrig RD1: 4.50 parlays / herrig NSC: 0 for 28.62 - 21 parlays
christensen +288: 150 for 432.45 - 21 parlays / christensen SUB: 6 parlays
means ITD: 90 for 75 / means SUB: 25 for 300 / means RD2: 25 for 87.75 - 31 parlays / means RD3: 10 for 97.50
/ DEC: 9 parlays / ITD: 195 for 150 / garcia DEC: 10 for 100 - 6 parlays
penn +111: 474.50 for 526 / penn DEC: 22 for 99 - 19 parlays / penn RD1: 4.50 parlays
/ penn NSC: 310 for 246 / DEC: 277.50 for 150 / O2.5: 67.50 for 50
koch -180: 99 for 55 / koch SUB: 25 for 98.75 - 31 parlays / ITD: 207.50 for 250 / guida DEC: 9 parlays
miranda +458: 200 for 915 - 21 parlays / miranda DEC: 22 for 148.50 / miranda ITD: 10.50 parlays / miranda KO: 20 for 150 / miranda NSC: 29 parlays / ITD: 150 for 172.50
moroz +388: 300 for 1,163.50 - 10 parlays / moroz DEC: 20 for 111.60 / moroz SUB: 10.50 parlays
/ moroz NSC: 50 for 65
powell +1200: 15 for 180 - 21 parlays / powell SUB: 11 for 99 - 10.50 parlays / powell NSC: 25 for 57.50 / ITD: 20 for 66
quinones +135: 50 for 67.50 / quinones DEC: 25 for 80.75 - 41 parlays
stansbury +108: 100 for 108.06 / stansbury DEC: 9 parlays / stansbury KO: 10 for 108.50 - 4.50 parlays
case +160: 50 for 80 / case RD3: 10 for 130 / martin ITD: 21 parlays / martin RD1: 18 for 99 - 6 parlays

props
FOTN: lee-chiesa: 0 for 76.50
parlays
56 RR for 3,539.63: herrigNSC/ christensen/ meansRD2/ kochSUB/ miranda/ powell/ quinonesDEC/ martinITD
21 RR for 1,751.36: herrigITD/ christSUB/ garciaDEC/ mirandaITD/ morozSUB/ powellSUB/ martinRD1
20 RR for 1,228.45: chiesaSUB/ pennDEC/ kochSUB/ mirandaNSC/ moroz/ quinonesDEC

21 RR for (paid +91.98) 2,788.32: chiesaDEC/ boetschITD/ garciameansDEC/ pennDEC/ guidaDEC/ mirandaNSC/ stansburyDEC
15.75 RR for 1,636.96: chiesaRD3/ herrigRD1/ pennRD3/ mirandaITD/ morozSUB/ powellSUB/ stansburyKO
25 RR for (paid +67.57) 528.87: leeRD1/ boetschITD/ meansRD2/ mirandaNSC/ quinonesDEC
---

i lost my mind mid event. i started greedily looking for dogs. christensen 1.5u bet? fucking stupid. penn bets? yea, that happened. i was SUPER vocal saying no one should bet bj here, all week, but i just doubted myself so much that i GENUINELY faded myself and paid for it, hard. i was on FULL TILT.

i was down over 2300 i think before the last 3 fights. so this is obviously a big comeback.

...but i need to get it together. gotta look myself in the mirror.
 
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