Your Official UFN 120 Bets

UFN 120 Risk $2621.25

Dustin Poirier (+100) vs Anthony Pettis $100.00 for $100.00
Dustin Poirier/Anthony Pettis Over 2½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00

Diego Sanchez +3½ points (+165) vs Matt Brown $100.00 for $165.00
Diego Sanchez/Matt Brown Over 2½ (+135) $100.00 for $135.00

Andrei Arlovski (+280) vs Junior Albini $100.00 for $280.00
Andrei Arlovski wins by TKO/KO (+486) $25.00 for $121.50

Cezar Ferreira/Nate Marquardt Under 1½ (+170) $100.00 for $170.00

Raphael Assuncao/Matthew Lopez Over 2½ (-250) $187.50 for $75.00

Clay Guida (-125) vs Joe Lauzon $375.00 for $300.00

Marlon Moraes (-115) vs John Dodson $345.00 for $300.00

Viviane Pereira/Tatiana Suarez Under 2½ (+185) $100.00 for $185.00

Sage Northcutt (-160) vs Michel Quinones $480.00 for $300.00
Sage Northcutt wins by submission (+650) $25.00 for $162.50

Nina Ansaroff (+167) vs Angela Hill $100.00 for $167.00

Court McGee/Sean Strickland Over 2½ (-235) $176.25 for $75.00

Jake Collier/Marcel Fortuna Over 1½ (-190) $95.00 for $50.00

Darren Stewart/Karl Roberson Under 2½ (-145) $72.50 for $50.00

Clay Guida/Joe Lauzon FOTN award winner (+600) $20.00 for $120.00
 
1.466u Brown/Diego u2.5 -110
3.2u Marquardt/Mutante o1.5 -160 (May hedge)
7u Guida +110
0.66u Guida DEC +180
0.15u Guida R3
3u Lauzon NSC -160
1u Lauzon SUB +541
5.4u Dodson -120
0.75u Dodson DEC +235
0.25u Dodson TKO/KO +515
1.66u Moraes DEC +180 (effectively 2.5u Dodson)
3.6u Suarez/Viv o2.5 -135
0.66u Suarez SUB +296
0.66u Quinones +165
2.8u Hill/Nina o2.5 -210
0.33u Nina DEC +300
0.133u Nina SUB +850

Plus some parlays. TOTAL RISK: Around 35u. More than I realized, but a lot of it is in hedges
 
Pettis ML -105 2u

Brown-Sanchez GTD +162 0.5u
Sanchez (SC=NA) +489 0.3u
Sanchez R3 +2525 0.1u

Not Albini ITD +164 1u
Arlovski ML +275 0.4u
Albini-Arlovski GTD +350 0.2u
Arlovski R1 +800 0.1u

Marquardt ITD +510 0.2u
Marquardt R3 +2500 0.1u

Assunçao -3.5 0.5u
Assunçao ITD +329 0.3u
Assunçao R3 +1600 0.1u

Guida ML -108 2u
Guida (SC=NA) +270 1u
Guida-Lauzon ends ITD +165 1u
Guida -3.5 +185 0.5u
Lauzon R1 +700 0.5u
Guida Sub +1480 0.2u
Guida R3 +2300 0.1u

Moraes ML +100 1u

Suarez ITD +197 0.3u
Suarez Sub +335 0.2u
Pereira (SC=NA) +375 0.15u

Northcutt ITD +191 0.5u
Northcutt -3.5 +110 0.5u
Northcutt (SC=NA) -128 0.5u

Ansaroff ML +165 1u
Ansaroff (SC=NA) +162 1u
Ansaroff Sub +950 0.1u

Added:

Ansaroff Dec. +350 0.4u
 
1u - Pettis @2.00
0.5u - Arlovski ITD @5.00
0.5u - Pettis/Moraes/Guida/Sage @12.00
1.2u - Assuncao/Lopez GTD @1.83
 
-7u last event.
---------

2.25u Roberson (1.44)
1u Quinones (2.40)
0.5u Ansaroff (2.62)
2u Pettis (2.00)

2.5u Ansaroff-Hill DEC (1.57)
0.5u Ferreira DEC (2.75)
0.75u Fortuna ITD (2.30)

parlays:
0.5u Roberson/Ansaroff-Hill DEC (2.26)
0.5u Roberson/Mcgee-Strickland o2.5 (2.10)
1u Ansaroff-Hill DEC/ Mcgee-Strickland o2.5 (2.28)
 
2u Pettis NSC -129 -2u

0.4u Arlovski +285 +1.14u
0.2u Arlovski NSC +322 0u
0.1u Arvolski KO +495 -0.1u

0.2u Marquardt KO +605 -0.2u

1u Assuncao-Lopez GTD -180 -1u
0.5u Lopez +315 -0.5u

1u Guida +110 +1.1u
1u Guida-Lauzon o2.5 -150 -1u
0.2u Lauzon SUB +541 -0.2u
0.05u Guida RD3 +1800 -0.05u

1u Moraes-Dodson GTD -185 +0.54u
1u Dodson NSC -112 0u
0.5u Moraes DEC +190 +0.95u

3u Northcutt -160 +1.875u
0.1u Northcutt SUB +875 -0.1u

1u Ansaroff NSC +150 0u
0.1u Ansaroff SUB +1010 -0.1u

0.5u Fortuna ITD +148 -0.5u
0.2 Fortuna KO +430 -0.2u
0.1u Collier DEC +655 +0.655u

0.2u Fortuna/Northcutt/Moraes/Guida/Pettis -0.2u

0.8u RR (3s,4s,5) Fortuna ITD/Northcutt ITD/Moraes DEC/Guida DEC/Pettis ITD -0.8u
1.3u RR (2s,3s,4s,5) Ansaroff DEC/Suarez SUB/Lopez/Ferriera DEC/Brown DEC -0.72u

Live:
0.3u Quinones +1000 -0.3u
0.1u Lopez +850 -0.1u
0.5u Pettis +350 -0.5u

NET: -2.31u

Meh, whatever. I can't catch a break. Beyond frustrated at this point.
 
Last edited:
got a bit reckless, should have just stuck to my main plays. whatever, a small win is better than a loss.

WINS

Roberson, northcutt, suarez £75 returns £229

Moraes £75 returns £165

Cezar, guida £102 returns £303

LOSSES

Lopez £50 returns £200

Hill dec, moraes dec, guida dec £15 returns £210

Hill dec, northcutt r1, moraes dec, arlovski r1, pettis ko £5 returns £5346

Lauzon r1 £10 returns £80

Marquardt £50 returns £118

Roberson, northcutt, suarez, moraes, guida, cezar, albini, brown, pettis £10 returns £454

Brown, pettis £100 returns £250

PROFIT: £205
 
1.466u Brown/Diego u2.5 -110
3.2u Marquardt/Mutante o1.5 -160 (May hedge)
7u Guida +110
0.66u Guida DEC +180
0.15u Guida R3
3u Lauzon NSC -160
1u Lauzon SUB +541
5.4u Dodson -120
0.75u Dodson DEC +235
0.25u Dodson TKO/KO +515

1.66u Moraes DEC +180 (effectively 2.5u Dodson)
3.6u Suarez/Viv o2.5 -135

0.66u Suarez SUB +296
0.66u Quinones +165

2.8u Hill/Nina o2.5 -210
0.33u Nina DEC +300

0.133u Nina SUB +850


Plus some parlays. TOTAL RISK: Around 35u. More than I realized, but a lot of it is in hedges

Degen adds + LB:
1u Court/Strick o2.5 + Nina/Hill o2.5 + Assuncao +150
0.75u Nina -105 LIVE
Sage/Quinones GTD LIVE to win 0.66u
1u Moraes +180

Up abut 4u in total. Not out of last week's hole, but I'll take it and move on to the next week
 
Guida 1u @ -120
Moraes 1u @ -110
Strickland/McGee over 2.5 1u @-210

Gotta right the ship after last week's craziness.

3 out of 3. Up 3 units on the night.
 
1U Guida over Lauzon @ $1.97 = $40 to profit $38.80
1U Ferreira over Marquart @ 1.43 = $40 to profit $17.20
1U Poirer over Pettis @ $2.05 = $40 to profit $42.

Smallish action for some fun on this card. Good luck hombre's.

Hit all 3 of these, but had other bets that didn't go my way. Ended up down ~$20 = 0.5U
 
Pettis ML -105 2u

Brown-Sanchez GTD +162 0.5u
Sanchez (SC=NA) +489 0.3u
Sanchez R3 +2525 0.1u

Not Albini ITD +164 1u
Arlovski ML +275 0.4u
Albini-Arlovski GTD +350 0.2u
Arlovski R1 +800 0.1u

Marquardt ITD +510 0.2u
Marquardt R3 +2500 0.1u

Assunçao -3.5 0.5u
Assunçao ITD +329 0.3u
Assunçao R3 +1600 0.1u

Guida ML -108 2u
Guida (SC=NA) +270 1u
Guida-Lauzon ends ITD +165 1u
Guida -3.5 +185 0.5u
Lauzon R1 +700 0.5u
Guida Sub +1480 0.2u
Guida R3 +2300 0.1u

Moraes ML +100 1u

Suarez ITD +197 0.3u
Suarez Sub +335 0.2u
Pereira (SC=NA) +375 0.15u

Northcutt ITD +191 0.5u
Northcutt -3.5 +110 0.5u
Northcutt (SC=NA) -128 0.5u

Ansaroff ML +165 1u
Ansaroff (SC=NA) +162 1u
Ansaroff Dec. +350 0.4u
Ansaroff Sub +950 0.1u

Pettis ML -105 2u -2u

Brown-Sanchez GTD +162 0.5u -0.5u
Sanchez (SC=NA) +489 0.3u -0.3u

Sanchez R3 +2525 0.1u -0.1u

Not Albini ITD +164 1u +1.64u
Arlovski ML +275 0.4u +1.1u
Albini-Arlovski GTD +350 0.2u +0.7u

Arlovski R1 +800 0.1u -0.1u

Marquardt ITD +510 0.2u -0.2u
Marquardt R3 +2500 0.1u -0.1u


Assunçao -3.5 -125 0.5u +0.4u
Assunçao ITD +329 0.3u +0.987u
Assunçao R3 +1600 0.1u +1.6u


Guida ML -108 2u +1.852u
Guida (SC=NA) +270 1u +2.7u
Guida-Lauzon ends ITD +165 1u +1.65u
Guida -3.5 +185 0.5u +0.925u

Lauzon R1 +700 0.5u -0.5u
Guida Sub +1480 0.2u -0.2u
Guida R3 +2300 0.1u -0.1u


Moraes ML +100 1u +1u

Suarez ITD +197 0.3u -0.3u
Suarez Sub +335 0.2u -0.2u

Pereira (SC=NA) +375 0.15u

Northcutt ITD +191 0.5u -0.5u
Northcutt -3.5 +110 0.5u +0.55u
Northcutt (SC=NA) -128 0.5u

Ansaroff ML +165 1u +1.65u
Ansaroff (SC=NA) +162 1u
Ansaroff Dec. +350 0.4u +1.4u
Ansaroff Sub +950 0.1u -0.1u

Total: +12.304u
 

UFN 120 +265
win - McGee/Strickland O2.5 $50 to win $25
win - Northcutt $165 to win $96
loss - Lopez/Assuncao O2.5 & Guida/Lauzon O2.5 Parlay $150 to win $201
loss - Suarez wins by submission $30 to win $90
win - Moraes / Dodson goes 3 round distance $50 to win $22
win - Moraes wins by 3 round decision $25 to win $42
loss - Guida wins by 3 round decision $50 to win $67
win - Assuncao wins inside distance $50 to win $157
win - Raphael Assuncao $25 to win $8
loss - Matthew Lopez $5 to win $42
win - Poirier / Pettis ITD $185 to win $100
win - Sanchez / Brown ITD $185 to win $100
loss - Junior Albini $50 to win $23

not bad. fun night of fights. I will take it
 
Poirier +109 1u

Brown KO -115 .6u

Arlovski KO +445 .3u

Mutante DEC +182 1u
Marquardt NSC +204 1u
Mutante/Marquardt O1.5 -160 2u

Assuncao -196 4u

Guida +110 2u
Guida DEC +175 1u
Lauzon NSC -160 1u
Lauzon RD1 +700 .3u
Guida/Lauzon DRAW +7500 .05u

Dodson -120 1.2u

Suarez/Pereira O2.5 -146 2u

Northcutt -160 1u

Ansaroff +170 1u
Ansaroff/Hill O2.5 -210 2u
Ansaroff NSC +161 2u
Ansaroff DEC +300 .5u

Strickland NSC -162 4u
McGee/Strickland O2.5 -180 1u

Fortuna -187 1u


Wishing I went bigger on Fortuna, hadn't started tape when the line dropped. I'm pretty much set, may hit a couple point handicaps. Plan to LB Guida big.

Up about 12u, needed that after last week.

Live-bets:
Screenshot_20171112-020654.jpg
 
3u Guida ML @ 2.14 - W
1u Arlovski ML @ 3.5 - W
2u Moraes ML @ 2.0 - W

2u Albini/AA u1.5 + Guida/Lauzon o2.5 + Assuncao ML @ 4.3 - L

0.5u Arlovski KO1 @ 12

5.14u profit on Sherdog picks, 15u on my tipping site picks and 23u including some live action and a few long shots.
 
2u Pettis NSC -129 -2u

0.4u Arlovski +285 +1.14u
0.2u Arlovski NSC +322 0u
0.1u Arvolski KO +495 -0.1u

0.2u Marquardt KO +605 -0.2u

1u Assuncao-Lopez GTD -180 -1u
0.5u Lopez +315 -0.5u

1u Guida +110 +1.1u
1u Guida-Lauzon o2.5 -150 -1u
0.2u Lauzon SUB +541 -0.2u
0.05u Guida RD3 +1800 -0.5u

1u Moraes-Dodson GTD -185 +0.54u
1u Dodson NSC -112 0u
0.5u Moraes DEC +190 +0.95u

3u Northcutt -160 +1.875u
0.1u Northcutt SUB +875 -0.1u

1u Ansaroff NSC +150 0u
0.1u Ansaroff SUB +1010 -0.1u

0.5u Fortuna ITD +148 -0.5u
0.2 Fortuna KO +430 -0.2u
0.1u Collier DEC +655 +0.655u

0.2u Fortuna/Northcutt/Moraes/Guida/Pettis -0.2u

0.8u RR (3s,4s,5) Fortuna ITD/Northcutt ITD/Moraes DEC/Guida DEC/Pettis ITD -0.8u
1.3u RR (2s,3s,4s,5) Ansaroff DEC/Suarez SUB/Lopez/Ferriera DEC/Brown DEC -0.72u

Live:
0.3u Quinones +1000 -0.3u
0.1u Lopez +850 -0.1u
0.5u Pettis +350 -0.5u

NET: -2.76u

Meh, whatever. I can't catch a break. Beyond frustrated at this point.

Man, I liked your plays yesterday, too

I genuinely don't see a bad bet there. I really don't. Chin up.. you put yourself in some good spots. Your only mistake was passing on some other opportunities, I think, and that's somewhat fixable
 
3u Lauzon/Guida Winner by decision - 1.83
2u Pettis - 1.80

0.5u Brown/Sanchez u1.5 - 2.10
0.5u Brown KO/TKO - 1.76
0.5u Moraes DEC - 2.50
0.5u Ansaroff - 2.70

0.5u Assuncao/Lopez FGTD - 1.83
0.3u Lauzon R1 - 8.00
0.25u Pettis ITD - 2.40

0.2u Collier DEC - 6.50
0.2u Lotto Parlays
0.2u Fortuna SUB - 3.75

0.1u Ansaroff DEC - 4.50
0.1u Arlovski DEC - 9.50
0.5u Arlovski - 3.83
0.5u Ferreira DEC - 2.75
0.05u Assuncao R3 - 17.00
0.05u Pettis R3 - 12.00
0.05u Pettis R4 - 19.00


Live bets:
1u Pettis - 4.33
1u Pettis/Poirier ends ITD - 1.40
1u Arlovski - 1.90
1u Ferreira - 1.80
0.5u Ansaroff DEC - 2.10

0.2u Suarez ITD - 1.90

Total: +2.12u

Weird night for me...I made a lot of small plays that paid off but lost the big ones. I actually had 3u on Guida ML but bought out of it because I thought a decision could go either way (and Guida won't finish Lauzon anyway, RIGHT GUYS?!!) and the Ohmbet line for "Winner by decision" was way better than the over or FGTD and blablabla. Lost quite a bit on Pettis too, but I still feel like livebetting him was the right move given how many risks Poirier was taking. But a win is a win! Moving on to the next one.
 
Man, I liked your plays yesterday, too

I genuinely don't see a bad bet there. I really don't. Chin up.. you put yourself in some good spots. Your only mistake was passing on some other opportunities, I think, and that's somewhat fixable

Thanks man. I'm gonna take a hard look at some of my numbers this week and see if I can make some small tweaks. That's four straight losing events, worst run since I started tracking. One thing I know for sure is that my live betting SUCKS. I liked the prices on Ansaroff, Mutante and AA between rounds, but didn't pull the trigger on any of them.
 
UFN 120 Net: +455.75
poirier +129: 210 for 270 / poirier DEC: 21 parlays / O4.0: 21 parlays / pettis SUB: 9 parlays / pettis NSC: 145 for 100
sanchez: 21 parlays / sanchez DEC: 9 parlays / sanchez ITD: 7 parlays / sanchez SUB: 15 for 210 / sanchez RD3: 10 for 262.50 / sanchez +3.5: 39 parlays

AA +285: 50 for 142.50 - 21 parlays / AA DEC: 25 for 237.50 - 7 parlays / DEC: 9 parlays / O1.5: 50 for 70 - 21 parlays
mutante -130: 207.50 for 160
/ mutante SUB: 9 parlays / marquardt KO: 30 for 195 - 7 parlays / marquardt NSC: 9 parlays
lopez +443: 150 for 665 - 21 parlays / lopez DEC: 33 for 151.14 - 16 parlays / lopez +3.5: 39 parlays / DEC: 90 for 50 / O2.5: 90 for 50
lauzon -120: 120 for 100 / lauzon ITD: 9 parlays / lauzon RD1: 7 parlays / lauzon NSC: 431.25 for 250 / O2.5: 77.50 for 50
/ RD1: 25 for 103 / guida DEC: 85 for 146 - 18 parlays / guida RD3: 15 for 240
moraes +110: 353.75 for 390 / moraes DEC: 50 for 95 - 18 parlays / dodson KO: 9 parlays / dodson NSC: 182.50 for 125 - 21 parlays
suarez DEC: 18 parlays / suarez SUB: 75 for 267.50 - 21 parlays / pereira DEC: 25 for 100 - 18 parlays
northcutt -165: 165 for 100 / northcutt DEC: 35 for 86.80 - 21 parlays / northcutt SUB: 40 for 303.80 - 7 parlays / northcutt RD1: 9 parlays / ITD: 50 for 52.50
ansaroff DEC: 21 parlays / ansaroff SUB: 7 parlays / ansaroff NSC: 21 parlays / hill DEC: 18 parlays
strickland ITD: 18 parlays
/ strickland NSC: 383.75 for 250 / O2.5: 97.50 for 50
collier +220: 50 for 110 - 21 parlays / collier DEC: 20 for 131 - 7 parlays / DEC: 18 parlays / O1.5: 82.50 for 50

stewart: 21 parlays / stewart DEC: 9 parlays / NOT roberson ITD: 70 for 50
props
FOTN: lauzon-guida: 25 for 200

parlays
56 RR for (paid +124.44) 3,135.98: poirierDEC/ sanchez/ AA/ lopez/ suarezSUB/ northcuttDEC/ ansaroffDEC/ collier
49 RR for (paid -45.50) 605.56: poirierpettisO4.0/ sanchez+3.5/ AAalbiniO1.5/ lopez+3.5/ dodsonNSC/ ansaroffNSC/ stewart
31.50 RR for 767.06: pettisSUB/ AAalbiniDEC/ mutanteSUB/ lopezDEC/ dodsonKO/ pereiraDEC/ stricklandITD

28 RR for (paid +35.11) 1,531.69: 28 RR for sanchezITD/ AADEC/ marqKO/ lopezDEC/ jlauRD1/ northcuttSUB/ ninaSUB/ collierDEC
21 RR for 2,114.22: sanchezDEC/ marqNSC/ jlauITD/ pereiraDEC/ northcuttRD1/ stricklandITD/ stewartDEC
42 RR for (paid -24.85) 509.89: sanchez+3.5/ lopez+3.5/ guidaDEC/ moraesDEC/ suarezDEC/ hillDEC/[ collierfortunaDEC

---

J-lau result really hurts, man. just making a point to stay even keel emotionally and what-not these days.

onto next week.
 
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