Your Official UFN 122 Bets

first plays:

1.1u bisping-gastelum O2.5 -110

1u guan +150

1.02u ottow-jingliang O2.5 -170
0.35u ottow DEC +285

0.75u garcia +160
0.25u garcia DEC +470
0.5u garcia-salikhov O1.5 +100
 
1.6u Bisping/Gastelum O2.5 @1.80
0.6u Guan @2.50
0.6u Garcia @2.50
 
Garcia to win
$5 to win $12.50

Curran to win
$5 to win $11.50

Guan to win
$10 to win $24

Jingliang+ Cyborg (UFC 219) to win
$20 to win $39.86

Gastelum to win in Rd 2
$5.90 to win $44.25

Gastelum to win by KO/TKO/DQ
$10 to win $20

Gastelum + Jingliang to win
$20 to win $41.81

Gastelum + Cyborg (UFC 219) to win
$28.90 to win $50.09
 
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Initial bets:

Song Yadong ML -129 1.2u
Khandare-Song U2.5 +110 0.5u

Chase Sherman ML +125 0.5u

Wang Guan ML +150 0.6u
Guan by decision +359 0.2u

Moraes ML +350 0.1u

Garcia-Salikhov GTD +260 0.2u
Garcia by decision +505 0.15u

Mazany ML -129 0.5u
 
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Gastelum wins inside distance -161* - $150 to win $93.17
2 Team Parlay Kelvin Gastelum -325*/ Zabit Magomedsharipov -425* - $425 to win $261.54

 
Yan @ 1.93 - 2u - W
Li @ 1.57 - 3u - W
Yanan @ 2.22 - 1.5u - L
Khandare @ 2.12 - 1.5u - L
Khandare/Song u2.5 @ 2.1 - 2u - W
Guan @ 2.5 - 1U - W
Gastelum Sub @ 6.5 -1u

Shamil + Nash @ 2.14 -2u - L Goddamnit Nash.

2.27u profit live
 
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Guan over Caceres 1U @ $2.30 = $40 to profit $52
Jingliang over Ottow 1U @ $1.53 = $40 to profit $21.20
Abdurakhimov over Sherman 1.75U @ $1.69 = $70 to profit $48.30
 
Gastelum +159 1u
Gastelum KO -105 .5u

Caceres -165 4.1u

Garcia/Salikhov O1.5 +130 .6u

Zabit -325 14.2u

Nash ITD -108 .5u

Curran +103 1u
Curran/Yan O2.5 -140 1u

Sherman/Shamil O1.5 -160 2u
Sherman/Shamil GTD -110 .5u
Shamil DEC +245 1u

Mazany -142 3.5u


Regret going that big on Caceres, line came out during a UFN 121 fight and I rushed it. I do favour him though. Probably went a bit too big on Mazany too, but she'll have a huge grappling advantage. Will be arbing Zabit down to 4-5u.
 
So far
Guan 3u +150
Bisping 2u +240
Garcia 1.5u +150 (should have waited)
Curran 1u +115
 
first plays:

1.1u bisping-gastelum O2.5 -110

1u guan +150

1.02u ottow-jingliang O2.5 -170
0.35u ottow DEC +285

0.75u garcia +160
0.25u garcia DEC +470
0.5u garcia-salikhov O1.5 +100

added:

0.33u bisping DEC +470

0.7u curran +115
0.3u curran DEC +325

0.25u more on garcia +180 (so 1u +165)

no way in hell am i gonna overexpose myself after last week's disaster (which, granted, $1300 of the loss was live bets on kelly, velickovic (5u alone), brown, etc.)

will add a bunch of fun prop RR's but fuuuuuck this card.
 
Jingliang ML 1u @-175.
Mazany ML 1u @ -135
Garcia/Salikhov 0.5u over 1.5 @+120.
 
Bisping +250 (1u)
Bisping/Gastelum under 2.5 -110 (5u)
Leech NSC -292 (2u)
Caceres -150 (3u)
Caceres/Wang u2.5 +150 (3u)
Not Nash itd -120 (4u)
Moraes +400 (3u)
Curran +130 (1u)
 
4 units Gastellum @ -210
2 units Jingliang @ -170
1.5 units Wang @ +150
1.5 units Curran @ +120
1 unit 02.5 Curran/Guan @ -158
2 units Mazany -129
2 units Dy -158
 
Gastelum +142 2u
Gastelum KO -105 .5u

Caceres -165 4.1u

Garcia/Salikhov O1.5 +130 .6u

Zabit -146 3u

Nash ITD -108 .5u
Nash KO +175 .3u

Curran +103 1u
Curran/Yan O2.5 -140 1u

Sherman/Shamil O1.5 -160 2u
Sherman/Shamil GTD -110 .5u
Shamil DEC +245 1u

Mazany -142 3.5u


Hoping I get a chance to go down to 1u Caceres on livebet. Wish I took Gastelum itd rather than KO as I could see a KD to sub. Should've passed on Curran. Other than that I'm happy with the plays, took advantage of some big arb opportunities with Gastelum and Zabit.
 
Initial bets:

Song Yadong ML -129 1.2u
Khandare-Song U2.5 +110 0.5u

Chase Sherman ML +125 0.5u

Wang Guan ML +150 0.6u
Guan by decision +359 0.2u

Moraes ML +350 0.1u

Garcia-Salikhov GTD +260 0.2u
Garcia by decision +505 0.15u

Mazany ML -129 0.5u

Added:

Jingliang Li -3.5 +115 0.5u
Jingliang Li KO/TKO +290 0.2u
Jingliang Li R3 +1200 0.1u
Ottow ITD +708 0.05u
Ottow Sub. +1310 0.05u

Caceres SC=NA +103 0.5u
Caceres ITD +357 0.2u
Caceres Sub. +601 0.1u

Garcia-Salikhov GTD +250 0.2u
Salikhov Dec. +550 0.2u
Garcia ML +190 0.3u
Garcia SC=NA +325 0.25u
Garcia Sub. +941 0.1u

Moraes ML +450 0.2u
Moraes Dec +1000 0.2u
Moraes SC=NA +387 0.2u

Curran ITD +303 0.1u
Curran Sub. +485 0.1u

Yadong Song R3 +1200 0.1u

Sherman SC=NA +104 0.5u

Mazany ML -115 0.7u
Mazany ITD +217 0.25u
Mazany Sub. +425 0.1u

Dy ITD +228 0.2u
Dy KO/TKO +410 0.2u
 
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UFN 21 Risk: 1,228.50
Bisping +245: 50 for 122.50 / Bisping DEC: 50 for 240.10 - 14 parlays / bisping RD1: 6 parlays / bisping +5.5: 36 parlays / O2.5: 110 for 100 - 30 parlays / gastelum DEC: 9 parlays / gastelum RD2: 9 parlays
ottow: 21 parlays / ottow DEC: 35 for 99.75 - 14 parlays / O2.5: 102 for 60 - 30 parlays / jingliang DEC: 15 parlays / jingliang RD3: 6 parlays
guan +150: 100 for 150 - 21 parlays / guan ITD: 23 parlays / caceres SUB: 20 for 160.30 - 15 parlays
garcia +165: 100 for 165 / garcia DEC: 25 for 117.50 - 14 parlays / garcia RD1: 6 parlays / O1.5: 50 for 50 - 30 parlays / salikhov RD1: 9 parlays
moraes +440: 150 for 660 - 23 parlays / moraes KO: 6 parlays / mago DEC: 15 parlays / mago RD2: 9 parlays
nash KO: 30 parlays / nash RD1: 23 parlays / U1.5: 15 parlays / kenan
curran +115: 70 for 80.50 - 21 parlays / curran DEC: 30 for 97.50 - 14 parlays / curran RD3: 6 parlays / xiaonan DEC: 15 parlays / xiaonan KO: 9 parlays
kandare DEC: 23 parlays / yadong
sherman RD2: 6 parlays / sherman NSC: 52.50 for 50 - 51 parlays / U1.5: 20 for 50.60 / abdurakhimov DEC: 24 parlays
mazany: 30 parlays / mazany KO: 9 parlays / yanan
dy: 30 parlays / dy KO: 9 parlays / buren
asker KO: 35 parlays / RD1: 30 parlays / yaozong
props
parlays
49 RR for 727.98: bisping+5.5/ ottow/ garcia/ nashKO/ curran/ shermanNSC/ askerKO
70 RR for 310.34: bispinggastelumO2.5/ ottowjingliangO2.5/ garciasalikhovO1.5/ shermanNSC/ mazany/ dy/ askerhuRD1
42 RR for 2,989.79: bispingDEC/ ottowDEC/ guanITD/ garciaDEC/ moraes/ nashRD1/ curranDEC/ kandareDEC/ askerKO
21 RR for 2,139.34: gastelumDEC/ caceresSUB/ moraes/ nashKO/ yanKO/ shamilDEC/ dyKO
21 RR for 2,325.72: bispingRD1/ jingliangRD3/ caceresSUB/ garciaRD1/ moraesKO/ curranRD3/ shermanRD2
21 RR for 1,581.90: gastleumRD2/ guanITD/ salikhovRD1/ magoRD2/ nashRD1/ khandareDEC/ mazanyKO
30 RR for 431.47: bisping+5.5/ jingliangDEC/ magoDEC/ nashsongU1.5/ yanDEC/ shamilDEC
---

did a couple extra longshot RR's etc in lieu of forcing any significant action.

officially my smallest ufc of the year hehe. and even w/that i probably forced some bets.

zero strong leans, short of moraes ML having solid value. that's my favorite bet of the card, and i still cap it to lose more often than not, heh.
 
Guan over Caceres 1U @ $2.30 = $40 to profit $52
Jingliang over Ottow 1U @ $1.53 = $40 to profit $21.20
Abdurakhimov over Sherman 1.75U @ $1.69 = $70 to profit $48.30

Added
$50 to the Abdurakhimov/Sherman O1.5 @ $1.40 = $50 to profit $20
 
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