Official UFC on Fox 17 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

Paddy Power have paid out on Philippines and Colombia...hoping this is one of their publicity stunts...

(Paid out on Colombia, withdrew the winnings, then paid out again.)
 
That's just bizarre, I haven't been following or betting on this whole thing but I had to check out that winner announcement fail. Found the complete thing on youtube if anyone else was curious here it is:
 
People were laughing at PuertoRican's decision to avoid spoilers and watch this as live but, boy, did he make the right call. What drama and excitement awaits him!
 
bruthead said:
People were laughing at PuertoRican's decision to avoid spoilers and watch this as live but, boy, did he make the right call. What drama and excitement awaits him!
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He still might turn it off like right after they announce the winner, then come in here and find out the split decision results!! :)
 
I think Luca had Miss Colombia parlayed with Michael Johnson as a premium bet.
 
1bet_zps4bpppzpk.png
2bet_zpsyxvbfkkb.png
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Still amazed Nate was such an underdog.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Holy shit, a car mowed down over a dozen people right by the place where the Miss Universe was held at. Wouldn't be surprised if it was Miss Colombia or her family

Seriously though, I hope the people are okay
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Hopefully Steve Harvey is the one fatality being reported.
 
iGnP said:
NFL

for what its worth, the Eagles basically have to win next week in order to make the playoffs. they might be looking ahead tonight. The cardinals dont really have much to play for either as they have pretty much clinched the 2nd seed in the NFC but their coach always expects the most out of them. im taking the cardinals and the points for 1u
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boom. but can i get some likes for this easy winner tho

#thirsty
 
Just caught up in here

Looks like I missed out on lock of the night.. France to finish top 5 +200

I'd have thrown 25 on it! Lol
 
YoungScholar said:
Nice to see guys sharing graphs of their results. I'm kind of a stat nerd myself and very meticulous when it comes to tracking my MMA bets, so figured I might as well share results from my excel spreadsheets in form of a pretty graph and some numbers.

js9WY7U.jpg


I apologize for the European decimal marks and thousands separators.

The orange text is the amount of individual bets made in the year and the horisontal lines on the graph marks the end of each year. The avg. odds stat is inflated by small stabs at silly +10000 lines. I should probably do weighted avg. or median instead. The median betting odds for the entire three year period was 2.5 or +150.

Tracking bets like this also gives you the possibility of sorting your results by bet type. For example I can see that I have profited on parlays, livebets, money lines and props but lost on over/unders (could be classified as props I know). You can obviously also filter it to see how you're doing on non-UFC events, WMMA or even just favorites and underdogs and then perhaps reevaluate your approach or be more cautious in certain spots.

As the graph shows I had an insane year, especially the last three months has been ridiculous. In this time I have been lucky on split decisions, hitting some "off" or long shot lines as well as capitalizing a bit on line movement. So this ROI is certainly not attainable for me long term. I would honestly be happy with a more modest 7-10% ROI going forward, which I definitely think I can attain as long as I livebet most events. With that said ROI alone shouldn't be the goal as a 5% ROI over 100 bets obviously is better than a 10% ROI with 30 bets (over the same amount of events and with the same bet sizing).

I increased my unit size after 2013 and will definitely have to do that again now. I still ain't betting as big money as the high rollers in the thread but I sure am going in the right direction.

Thanks a lot to everyone contributing to this thread over the last 5-6 years (followed it for a while before I made an account). I would have never gotten this much into MMA betting or had these results without it. It remains the single most important place for me to follow and participate in MMA betting discussion. Even with the more trolly side of sherdog/the internet spilling over badly at times, the serious and knowledgable posters just keep coming back.

I doubt I'll be betting the Rizin card so this year is in the books. Merry Christmas boys and congrats to everyone who had success this year! ;)
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Been tailing you secretly (didnt have sherdog account) for awhile now. My gf laughs because I call you the God. Had a damn good past few months thanks to you. cheers mate!
 
twone21 said:
Been tailing you secretly (didnt have sherdog account) for awhile now. My gf laughs because I call you the God. Had a damn good past few months thanks to you. cheers mate!
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Woah, that's awesome to hear man - although that "god" part makes me a bit anxious ;) Welcome aboard!
 
Shoutout to PR for giving us this entertainment and popping in the thread to let us know live betting was up.
 
NFL Monday

this game just seems like dog or pass. the lions defense has been playing better of late and i think the saints might be mailing it in. the saints had revenge on their minds last week against the Bucs (for a loss earlier in the year) but they essentially have no motive to win this game.

Lions +3 for 1u
Lions ML for 0.5u
 
PuertoRican said:
My Picks & Bets for the top-12 women in the Miss Universe 2015 pageant:

Quick Notes:

- Brunettes have won the Miss Universe pageant the last 10 years in a row.

- Miss Philippines has made it into the top-5 in the last 4 out of 5 years.

- Manny Pacquiao, a Philippines native, is one of the many judges; however, the people on the judge’s panel aren’t actually picking the winners, they get the results told to them via microphone in their ear.

- T5 = Top-5 in alphabetical order.



#T5 = Australia: She’s the best looking dirty-blonde, imo.

#T5 = France: She’s half black, so she has the unique factor. Also, another guy’s read is that France will get extra love because of the political stuff that’s going on in France, so she might get a sympathy win.

#T5 = Philippines: Her naturally large breasts might hold her back from winning. That being said, there must be a ton of Filipinos at this event, because during the preliminary event, she got a loud cheer from the crowd. Considering Miss Philippines has been in the top-5 four out of the last five years, Filipinos will probably be in full-force for this event with the hope to sway the judges.

#T5 = Thailand: I think the shape of her face, her wide smile, her long black hair, and sharp jaw line (similar to the human faces in Pokémon) will get her into the top 3.

#T5 = USA: She looked AMAZING in her red gown and swimsuit that she wore during the preliminaries, and she could be top-3 just by that. Also, she’s the hottest Barbie-blonde out of the entire crop of ladies. At first, I didn’t think she was much of a threat, but after watching tape on her, she’s legit.

Haiti:

India: Top-10 material, possibly even top-5, but not top-3. Her smile, and the fact that she doesn’t look Indian at all, will get her really far.

Jamaica:

Japan: She's full-figured, and half black + half Japanese (legit unique factor). Born and raised in Japan, and spent 3 years in USA. She’s the first biracial woman to ever represent Japan in the Miss Universe pageant. She faced backlash for being half black and representing Japan, so this could get her sympathy from the judges and fans. If she can stay focused and keep her smile going the entire time, she has a good shot at making the top 5.

Mexico:

Venezuela: Miss Venezuela has won 3 out of the last 7 years; however, I don’t think she’ll win this year.

Vietnam:

----------

Japan +3300 $10
France +796 $10
Thailand +1602 $5
Venezuela +2500 $5
Austria +4000 $2
Finland +5000 $2
Angola +6600 $2
Netherlands +3300 $2
Singapore +8000 $2
China +6600 $2
Aruba +10000 $2
Click to expand...
My results for the Miss Universe 2015 pageant:

First off, I'm glad you guys were able to live bet and make some additional money. I had prior engagements with some people, so I wasn't able to watch it live with you guys, but I just finished watching the tape delay on the West Coast.

Second, all my money bets lost; however, if you followed all my picks, you would see how good I ran during the entire event, and you would've made yourself money if you bet my top-5 picks.

Third, Miss France f'ed herself when she wore that white nightgown instead of the all-red nightgown, which would've got her to the top-5 for sure. And Miss France... She gave a terrible answer when it came time to use her brain... Miss Japan was so worried about when to smile, that she basically screwed herself over by looking nervous during the nightgown round (people said she was great, but that she smiles too much, hence the lack of smiling that cost her). Oh well.

Fourth, I feel bad for Miss Colombia, but I'm glad her wannabe Sofia Vergara lookin' azz didn't win. I'm legit surprised she was even in the top-15...

Fifth, even though Miss Philippines was in my top-5, I thought her large breasts would hold her back in this competition, but I didn't take into account the large Filipino fanbase that would be there in attendance and I didn't know that people would be voting online until after I posted my picks. Prior to 2015, Philippines made it to the top-5 in 4 out of the 5 previous years, so this was their lucky-number-five, I guess...

My results, round-by-round:

#T5 = Australia: She’s the best looking dirty-blonde, imo.

#T5 = France: She’s half black, so she has the unique factor. Also, another guy’s read is that France will get extra love because of the political stuff that’s going on in France, so she might get a sympathy win.

#T5 = Philippines: Her naturally large breasts might hold her back from winning. That being said, there must be a ton of Filipinos at this event, because during the preliminary event, she got a loud cheer from the crowd. Considering Miss Philippines has been in the top-5 four out of the last five years, Filipinos will probably be in full-force for this event with the hope to sway the judges.

#T5 = Thailand: I think the shape of her face, her wide smile, her long black hair, and sharp jaw line (similar to the human faces in Pokémon) will get her into the top 3.

#T5 = USA: She looked AMAZING in her red gown and swimsuit that she wore during the preliminaries, and she could be top-3 just by that. Also, she’s the hottest Barbie-blonde out of the entire crop of ladies. At first, I didn’t think she was much of a threat, but after watching tape on her, she’s legit.

Haiti:

India: Top-10 material, possibly even top-5, but not top-3. Her smile, and the fact that she doesn’t look Indian at all, will get her really far.

Jamaica:

Japan: She's full-figured, and half black + half Japanese (legit unique factor). Born and raised in Japan, and spent 3 years in USA. She’s the first biracial woman to ever represent Japan in the Miss Universe pageant. She faced backlash for being half black and representing Japan, so this could get her sympathy from the judges and fans. If she can stay focused and keep her smile going the entire time, she has a good shot at making the top 5.

Mexico:

Venezuela: Miss Venezuela has won 3 out of the last 7 years; however, I don’t think she’ll win this year.

Vietnam:
----------

Top-15 finishers

Australia

France

Japan
Mexico
Philippines

Thailand

USA

Venezuela
----------

Top-10 finishers

Australia

France
Japan
Philippines
Thailand
USA
Venezuela
----------

Top-5 finishers

Australia

France
Philippines

USA
----------

Top-3 finishers

Philippines
USA
----------

Winner

Philippines
 
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