Official UFC on Fox 17 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[ods]

I have to say thanks to all you degenerates in here. Cashed big on these last two weeks of MMA and this Miss Universe (lol). First couple events betting MMA and I already doubled my bankroll. Feeling pretty good about 2016.

Thanks to PR for the amazing Miss Universe writeup. I took your advice for my top 5 and also hit a nice payday on Philippines as winner.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Lol! Thanks guys. Had a good time this morning reading your LB conversation about Miss Universe

 

[ClosetVitorFan]

Ask me if I'm mad? Damn Donald. Would have made me 1100 on a 5 dollar hail Mary parlay. Had Lentz, Olivera, Reem, Diaz and Cowboy. Damn it. I wanted my red panty night.

 

[iGnP]

Ask me if I'm mad? Damn Donald. Would have made me 1100 on a 5 dollar hail Mary parlay. Had Lentz, Olivera, Reem, Diaz and Cowboy. Damn it. I wanted my red panty night.

why wouldnt you hedge?!

 

[ClosetVitorFan]

why wouldnt you hedge?!

Because I'm an idiot. I went small on all of them. Came up a whopping 80 bucks. .

 

[iGnP]

Because I'm an idiot. I went small on all of them. Came up a whopping 80 bucks. .

you gotta cash out in that scenario, man. especially w so many people in here on RDA.

 

[ClosetVitorFan]

you gotta cash out in that scenario, man. especially w so many people in here on RDA.

This was just a hail Mary. Cowboy had the best chance out of Reem and Diaz. But I knew Reem and Diaz had a good shot. So did Cowboy. It's because he got Blitzed early. He's a slow starter. He could have won. Oh well. No red panty night.

 

[iGnP]

This was just a hail Mary. Cowboy had the best chance out of Reem and Diaz. But I knew Reem and Diaz had a good shot. So did Cowboy. It's because he got Blitzed early. He's a slow starter. He could have won. Oh well. No red panty night.

i guess we can agree to disagree. my take on it is: you left 400 and whatever dollars on the table. if you were on a moderate favorite to close it out, ok sure let it roll. but i dont think any regular ITT was on Cowboy. Especially with speculation of a hand injury

 

[ClosetVitorFan]

i guess we can agree to disagree. my take on it is: you left 400 and whatever dollars on the table. if you were on a moderate favorite to close it out, ok sure let it roll. but i dont think any regular ITT was on Cowboy. Especially with speculation of a hand injury

I wanted to let it ride!!! Should have cashed out early.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I have a pretty decent scope on this next UFC event featuring Lawler and condit. My initial leans given the current lines are:

Dustin ML
Stipe dec / o1.5
Gastelum dec (I might even play Noke somewhere @ those odds)
Larken/Tumenov o1.5
Ortega/Brandao o1.5
Lawler ML

of the odds that aren't released yet

Westscott
Sims
Holtzman/Dober o2.5
Kish
McDonald
Soto/Tanaka o2.5

To digress from that topic my thoughts on the year ending,

Spoiler

Ended 2014 with a big bet on dos Anjos to beat Pettis, withdrew all my cash and left 30$ to begin January 2015 and now I ended December 2015 with a big bet on the same guy to beat cowboy to end my calendar year with 5 figures.

Though, I hope to stay more disciplined with better use of my units next year, if I could look to improve something. I tend to get on "Tilt" when things get rough to begin the card and I'll tend to go against my initial read by chasing. And during the September-November stretch there were too many cards with international fighters or new faces that I didn't recognize that I forced plays on (more than I wanted to).

My favorite moment of the year was the Rockhold/Machida card earlier in the spring where I was hitting parlays with +1000 3rd round finishes in them. I spent the weekend in the desert at the Coachella Music Festival and sadly I preemptively decided to skip that card from watching, but it turned out my campsite had a WiFi computer center exclusive for campers and realizing it was 4pm Pacific time, I sprinted to the tent still drugged out to watch the fights to my surprise, with a small group of other MMA fans who were trying to figure out a way to stream it (til I came heh). It was pretty nutz I came out of that night with a couple grand with some solid plays and some really ridiculous ass small parlays + live betting. Imagine how happy I was going back to where the music was.

Having a big bank at that point, I was able to play each card with different strategies and different principles of betting. I discussed the Rule of 4, or precapping events and hedging accordingly.

A fun year in review and I recommend folks remember to have fun with watching fights and try not to be such a degenerate. I know people often joke around with that word but it's easy to turn a hobby into a bad habit if you catch my drift. And learn to launder your money if you're rollin big bucks!

PS I'm not opposed to change, but I do not like this layout.

 

[Ukram]

Madness @ Miss Information epic fail, get a gal happy and then crush all her dreams by saying sorry we got the wrong lass.

 

[Ukram]

Any bet365 users about?

Wanted to ask, have you guys ever used the cash out feature after the fight has finished ?

I see the cash out is sometimes available, just wondered if its actually cashed out ie during those close fights where split decisions can occur.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

just to give you a head's up: all the highly bet sides covered today. arizona is another highly bet side. vegas might need the eagles to cover this spread

Spoiler

And it cashed pretty easily!! Always nice to add a little % to my BR by tailing you guys.

 

[johncola]

The RDA image is wrong for some reason. Rafael opened as -160 favorite vs Conor's +130. But Conor has now become favorite at -155 against Rafael's +125.

Conor opened as a decent favorite over Frankie Edgar at -250 against Edgar's +200, but that line has gotten closer.

Initial thoughts?

I definitely think RDA is Conor's toughest stylistic matchup yet so getting him at + odds is very good. He's the first fighter Conor's fought who will definitely try to take him down yet not be at a severe height/reach disadvantage (like Mendes was and like Edgar would be).

 

[vkram]

Predictions on the lines for Dober/Holtzman and Trujilo/Sims?

 

[rille31]

Spoiler

Still amazed Nate was such an underdog.

Wich one

 

[Joseph Budden]

With RL on pretty much everything. Already on AA by dec though. Also fading Holtzmann. Dude is so bad.

 

[Subli]

Any bet365 users about?

Wanted to ask, have you guys ever used the cash out feature after the fight has finished ?

I see the cash out is sometimes available, just wondered if its actually cashed out ie during those close fights where split decisions can occur.

Unfortunately nope... bet365 closes the lines when there's 1-2 minutes left on the fight. Most euro books do the same. The only book that keep lines available until the scorecards annoucement is Bookmaker/Betcris, but they don't have the cash out feature.

 

[EzFlyer]

2015 year in review

unit: $100.00

2015: +174.59u

ufc: +147.05u
bellator: +20.62u
invicta: +3.21u
wsof: +0.57u
titan: +3.57u
others: -0.43u (interesting)

-------------------------------------------

best events:

UFC 182: +2,133.64
UFC 183: +1,990.38
ufc 188: +1,643.80
ufc fox 17: +1,629.13
UFC 184: +1,490.35
ufn 73: +1,468.53
ufn 63: +1,109.15
tuf 22: +1,041.23
UFN 60: +1,003.56

worst events:

ufn 64: -1,252.15
ufc 189: -1,357.40
UFC Fox 14: -1,932.10

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the following categories are PREFIGHT odds. so if i bet a guy who was -150 prefight as a +150 dog, the win goes into the small favorite category, even tho it was a +150 bet

small favorites (up to -200): -8.87u (whoa)
medium favorites (-201 to -400): +7.50u
huge favorites (-401 and up): +17.73u

small dogs (up to +200): +138.33u
medium dogs (+201 to +400): +33.93u
large dogs (+401 and up): -14.04u (whoa)

interesting on small faves and huge dogs. huge dogs are the only lifetime losing category for me, too, for the record.

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bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +155.73u
bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +18.86u

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the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

huge losses (-4u or worse):

12/12/15: saenz vs faber: -400.00
6/20/15: hallmann vs mustafaev: -409.00
3/21/15: dober vs silva: -412.50 (the non-tap)
6/27/15: machida vs romero: -434.75
10/3/15: jouban vs tumenov: -500.00
12/19/15: JDS vs overeem: -502.84
7/11/15: thatch vs gunnar: -505.00
3/14/15: esparza vs jedrzejczyk: -700.00 (the fight that made me make wmma bets smaller)
1/24/15: gustafsson vs AJ: -717.50
1/24/15: aliev vs robertson: -772.50 (i don't remember how i lost so big. i do think it was flukey, tho)
4/11/15: westcott vs pawlak: -816.00 (overestimated westcott SO BADLY)

huge wins (+6u or better... too many wins of 4u and 5u to list)

1/18/15: pendred vs spencer +607.76 (hehe cathal special)
2/22/15: ponzinnibio vs strickland +617.04
4/18/15: villante vs anderson +631.00 (mostly live)
7/18/15: dunham vs pearson +650.00
12/19/15: oliveira vs jury: +671.83
12/12/15: rockhold vs weidman: +678.01
3/14/15: dariush vs cruickshank: +726.50
1/3/15: felder vs castillo: +733.19
4/25/15: davis vs kaufman: +814.78 (wow, more than i remembered)
3/14/15: RDA vs pettis: +820.42
1/31/15: tate vs mcmann: +824.58 (wow, more than i remembered)
2/13/15: bendo vs thatch: +978.85
1/31/15: lineker vs mccall: +1,074.93 (mostly live)
6/13/15: werdum vs cain: +1,108.00
6/13/15: alvarez vs melendez: +1,208.86 (mostly live)
2/28/15: carneiro vs munoz: +1,399.00 (mostly live)

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100u is my yearly goal, so i killed it this year, really happy about it!

 

[rille31]

Ez how do you keep track of all those bets, favs dogs etc?