Official UFC 195 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[Joseph Budden]

^Yeah man in no way do i think it was a robbery. It's just my subjective opinion and I dont blame anyone who scores it to Lawler. It's so subjective how you score volume vs power. It's just my opinion on scoring in general, no way was this a robbery I have seen much worse.

Yeah exactly. I don't get guys like barry who wanna drop the gavel on MMA cause they feel that fight was such a robbery. Granted hes the worst bettor i've seen post in here by far, but still lol

With all that said, if anyone out there was on Tanaka, Kish, Tumenov, and Lawler, what a night for you lol. If somehow you were on Morono AND those 4, well god fucking damn.

 

[mkess101]

Pretty sure Robbie was still throwing punches too. Even if we were to score the fight as a whole, that was the end of the fight, and you can't give credence to a hypothetical like "Carlos finishes if there is more time"

Honestly, you can make arguments for either guy winning easily imo. Stats favor Carlos, but round in question Robbie clearly landed the harder blows. When a fight comes down to one super close round, its a bit much screaming 'robbery'. Only fight that deserves that is the Noke fight.

If we weren't MMA loving degenerate gamblers, this was a card to avoid. I know I wasn't the only one who felt that way, and that ESPECIALLY holds true to the main event. Not a soul on earth didn't envision a back and forth war. So, in brutal honesty, gamblers who feel cheated should look at themselves not the judges. If you wanna win without a hint of luck involved, this wasn't the fight or card to play.

Pretty sure Robbie was still throwing punches too. Even if we were to score the fight as a whole, that was the end of the fight, and you can't give credence to a hypothetical like "Carlos finishes if there is more time"

Honestly, you can make arguments for either guy winning easily imo. Stats favor Carlos, but round in question Robbie clearly landed the harder blows. When a fight comes down to one super close round, its a bit much screaming 'robbery'. Only fight that deserves that is the Noke fight.

If we weren't MMA loving degenerate gamblers, this was a card to avoid. I know I wasn't the only one who felt that way, and that ESPECIALLY holds true to the main event. Not a soul on earth didn't envision a back and forth war. So, in brutal honesty, gamblers who feel cheated should look at themselves not the judges. If you wanna win without a hint of luck involved, this wasn't the fight or card to play.

It's more than "a bit much" to call that a robbery. It's insanity. I'm seeing all these threads calling it that and thinking "What the hell is wrong with people?" I think Condit won too, but a robbery? That's just idiotic. It could have gone either way, and it's fun to talk about why you think each guy won. Beyond that, we all were lucky to see such an amazing fight.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Gotta say, if I have one regret last night its not going much harder on +200 Lawler/Condit for FOTN. That and maybe fandom getting to me a bit with AA, even though he looked slower than ever and those reflexes seemed a bit shot. Think the amount of exciting match ups made me hesitant to add more to that FOTN play, but that was an amazing line in retrospect for sure.

 

[vkram]

Am I mad if I want to fade Robbie the next time he fights? I feel that he lost to both Hendricks and Condit and was behind on the scorecards vs Rory before the TKO, I just feel that its gonna catch up with him soon. What odds would you expect vs Woodley? About -200 vs +150?

 

[Joseph Budden]

Am I mad if I want to fade Robbie the next time he fights? I feel that he lost to both Hendricks and Condit and was behind on the scorecards vs Rory before the TKO, I just feel that its gonna catch up with him soon. What odds would you expect vs Woodley? About -200 vs +150?

Don't think Tyron is the guy to fade Lawler with. If that fight happens next, still expect Robbie to have enough left to get the W

 

[Almirante]

Up 0.93u for the card.

Meh, I'll take it.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Am I mad if I want to fade Robbie the next time he fights? I feel that he lost to both Hendricks and Condit and was behind on the scorecards vs Rory before the TKO, I just feel that its gonna catch up with him soon. What odds would you expect vs Woodley? About -200 vs +150?

I think Woodley is a good matchup for Lawler. He is a low volume striker that relies on his power. If he doesn't KO Lawler which i find unlikely I dont give him much chance of winning a decision. I think there will be portions of inactivity in this fight where both fighters are looking to counter but Lawler will probably be the one moving forward so he should win atleast 3 rounds.

 

[RyuDave]

Results. not a good start to 2016

Spoiler

My UFC 195 bets (I thiiiiink I'm done):

Straight up:
Condit $300 @ 1.952 // $250 @ 2.04 // $836 in offline bets -$1,386
Arlovski $100 @ 2.95 -$100
Larkin $150 @ 2.98 // $150 @ 2.96 // $100 @ 3.25 -$400
Ortega $400 @ 1.518 +$207
Sims $150 @ 1.80 -$150

Kanehara $200 @ 5.25 // $50 @ 5.50 -$250
Ansaroff $100 @ 3.30 -$100
Dober $200 @ 2.40 // $150 @ 2.60 +$520
Morono $50 @ 3.39 +$120

Duffy $400 @ 1.546 -$400
Soto $300 @ 1.952 // $150 @ 2.04 // $100 @ 2.13 -$550
Westscott $250 @ 1.671 +$168

Over/under:

Noke/Morono u2.5 $300 @ 2.60 -$300
Garcia/Westscott u1.5 $100 @ 2.30 +$130
Larkin/Tumenov o1.5 $400 @ 1.657 +$263
Arlovski/Miocic o1.5 $400 @ 1.546 -$400
Condit/Lawler o4.5 $150 @ 2.25 +$188

total stake: $5,800
result: -$2,440

meh

Pretty much the same as you oh well mate better luck next time

 

[EzFlyer]

Damn. I've never live bet before. But I hear good things from it from people in this thread. Like people that are heavy on one fighter switch and turn what would be a losing venture into a profitable one.

Yep. Live betting finally came up on bookmaker for main event. I Was 200 for 220 condit prefight (so medium bet), but did 59.50 for 50 robbie early, then he both sides at even $ basically 3x each cancelling eahother out.. Then 30 +350 5d after 4th, then two more bets of 30 and 25 at +3xx , +411 in 5th to double freeroll and have a lil more of a freeroll on Robbie

I try to share live plays.. Most o them are in the thread

 

[EzFlyer]

Live betting is great to use. Understand however, it can work against you too when you bet the other side of a pre-fight bet that you thought was going to lose based on the momentum of the fight and then your original bets wins after all and you gave all your profit away with your live hedge.

Bingo. If condit won, I would have effectively given away like 150+

 

[EzFlyer]

Terrible night for me down just under £1200. Lost over £800 lb by throwing over £700 on Noke at end of r2 like an idiot. I will not be lb in future ive never done that great lb whereas pre bets have always been my money winner so will stick to them.

The parlay i was going to make was KG + McDonald + Miocic @ evens. I bailed when KG pulled out as the return dropped to about -175 and i like as close to evens as poss. Another lesson learned should have just taken McDonald + Miocic @ aforementioned odds and taken a smaller payout than normal in a difficult event for betting.

I had £425 on Larkin and i think it showed all the value was on him. I thought he won with all the damage he inflicted but maybe i was biased. Do not regret that bet just glad i halved the amount i had on him!

Luckily Miocic won to close a parlay and win me around £50 odd and he kept a £300 parlay with Pettis alive.

Grats to all winners.

Sry, sham.. Get them back in 2 weeks

I agree Larkin definitely had value. Just cause a bet loses doesn't mean it was a bad play. Far from it (and vicr versa)

 

[Subli]

Cruz completely owned TJ there

Spoiler

 

[Joseph Budden]

Cruz completely owned TJ there

Spoiler

Was cracking tf up at this last night. "I'm done talking to you" "How are you done talking to me when we're still sitting here?" Part had me dyinggggg

 

[mkess101]

I think Woodley is a good matchup for Lawler. He is a low volume striker that relies on his power. If he doesn't KO Lawler which i find unlikely I dont give him much chance of winning a decision. I think there will be portions of inactivity in this fight where both fighters are looking to counter but Lawler will probably be the one moving forward so he should win atleast 3 rounds.

Agree. Does everyone think we'll see Woodley get the next shot and Condit vs Maia to fight the winner? I think Robbie beats Woodley, it's a great stylistic matchup for Robbie. Woodley just isn't busy enough. He has that Robbie type power, but I like Robbie in that one. Maia vs Condit is super interesting. To me it essentially comes down to one thing: Is it a headliner on a Fox card or is it a co-main on a ppv. If it's 3 rounds I heavily favor Maia to win the first two rounds via top control and hold on for the win. If it's 5 rounds I'd predict a late Condit stoppage.

If Maia wins and gets the shot, Maia vs Robbie is obviously really interesting. Is Robbie's counter wrestling good enough to keep it standing? Unlike someone like Condit who has a terrific guard, I don't think Robbie can survive Maia on the mat if Maia gets it there.

Great next year in the WW division coming up imo.

 

[ClosetVitorFan]

Yeah exactly. I don't get guys like barry who wanna drop the gavel on MMA cause they feel that fight was such a robbery. Granted hes the worst bettor i've seen post in here by far, but still lol

With all that said, if anyone out there was on Tanaka, Kish, Tumenov, and Lawler, what a night for you lol. If somehow you were on Morono AND those 4, well god fucking damn.

I like Barry. When he makes a pick. You choose the opposite. Lol. Honestly how is he still betting? Does he cook his books and claims a profitable 2015? I don't get it. Perhaps he should quit mma betting.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I like Barry. When he makes a pick. You choose the opposite. Lol. Honestly how is he still betting? Does he cook his books and claims a profitable 2015? I don't get it. Perhaps he should quit mma betting.

Even if that dude DIDN'T consistently get so many things wrong, he really said Ronda at like -1200 vs Holm was his play of the card back in November. Gotta imagine thats a tough one to recover from lol he gives us good laughs though

 

[Barkus]

I wasn't on last night because I was watching at my parent's house with family in town. My night started off great and ended up basically riding on Condit (by any method) or fight ending inside the distance. I used to always hedge in those situations to make sure I walked away with a profit, but a few posters talked me out of it in the long term. I checked Robbie via decision as it was the only way I'd lose and the odds had climbed drastically to +330 when last I checked it was under +200. I couldn't resist and put a hedge on it to where I'd still have a great night if Condit won ITD or a -5.5 decision. Any other result was a small profit for the night. I was pretty pissed going into the decision thinking, "I shouldn't have hedged", and then they read the scorecards. I was honestly shocked that got scored for Lawler. I thought it was a clear cut 48-47 Condit, and everyone I watched with agreed. I walked away with the same result due to the hedge, but how in the world does Lawler get 3 rounds there?

Lawler is 1-2 in title fights that he's won.

 

[bootsy]

I put a small wager down on a Poirier, Miocic and Lawler parlay. If you want to make some money, do the opposite of what I do, my picks for the last few cards have been terrible!

I take it back, I'm a genius.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Agree. Does everyone think we'll see Woodley get the next shot and Condit vs Maia to fight the winner? I think Robbie beats Woodley, it's a great stylistic matchup for Robbie. Woodley just isn't busy enough. He has that Robbie type power, but I like Robbie in that one. Maia vs Condit is super interesting. To me it essentially comes down to one thing: Is it a headliner on a Fox card or is it a co-main on a ppv. If it's 3 rounds I heavily favor Maia to win the first two rounds via top control and hold on for the win. If it's 5 rounds I'd predict a late Condit stoppage.

If Maia wins and gets the shot, Maia vs Robbie is obviously really interesting. Is Robbie's counter wrestling good enough to keep it standing? Unlike someone like Condit who has a terrific guard, I don't think Robbie can survive Maia on the mat if Maia gets it there.

Great next year in the WW division coming up imo.

Condit talking about retirement. Praying to the gods of war he doesn't do that.

Condit vs Maia would be fucking incredible, really interesting clash of styles. Gotta imagine Maia would be the dog and it would be hard not to favor a play on him winning that one by dec.

Woodley is supposed to get next title shot but wouldn't be surprised if they Miesha Tate him. Only problem is, who else is there? WW stacked but in a weird spot where there is no clear contender for the strap.

 

[rille31]

Up like 5 units but a bit dissapointed as I went 1-3 on the splits

2 weeks without degen betting, my body is already itching