Your Official UFN 104 Bets

KZ TKO (+646) risk: 0.1u to win 0.65u
Grasso by DEC (+105) risk: 2u to win 2.1u
Trujillo TKO (+290) risk: 0.5u to win 1.45u
Hill/Andrade Goes to Decision (+125) risk: 1u to win 1.25u
Hill by DEC (+550) risk: 0.2u to win 1.1u
Blaydes wins in rd 2, 3 (+475, +1000, respectively) risk: 0.1u each
Morono (+105) risk: 0.4u to win 0.42u
Rawlings by DEC (+362) risk: 0.1u to win 0.36u

Very happy that my total risk is only a little more than 4u and most of it is on Grasso
 
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added:

0.15u Grasso ITD +260

0.35u Blaydes ITD -110

0.33u Morono +110
1u Morono NSC +100

0.7u Hamilton -164
 
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Going to be pretty heavy this card, hoping to double my unit size going forward, so looking at this as a transition event and thought quite a few -2xx favs are pretty safe for the price..

2u Trujillo -115
1u Hamilton -180
1u Hamilton + Skelly +108
2u Hamilton + Grasso +115
2U Hamilton + OSP +117
2u Morono -103
4u Skelly + Blaydes -102

Will be on KZ in some capacity, thinking ITD if price is good, might stab Hill and will do a lotto parlay..

Lotto: Morono/Torres/Skelly/Blaydes/Hamilton/Grasso/Trujillo/OSP/Jung +6021 - $10 to win $602

Added props:
0.40u Abel Dec +650
0.25u Hill Dec +650
1u KZ ITD +230
0.25u Ham rd 2 +650
 
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Had a really good last card. Went too heavy on Shev for my liking but it all turned out well. Nonetheless, here are my picks. I am a unit netter and I'm rounding to the closest half unit.

2 Team - Parlay 2 units
Anthony Hamilton ML (-210)
Michigan St -½ (-120) 1st Half Win

2 Team - Parlay 2 units
New England Patriots/Atlanta Falcons o58½ (-110)

2 Team - Parlay 2 unts
Chas Skelly ML (-260)
Daniel Jolly ML (+150)

2 Team - Parlay 3 units
Tecia Torres (W) ML (-260)
Alex Morono ML (-105)

2 Team - Parlay 4 units
Alexa Grasso (W) ML (-300)
Chas Skelly ML (-260)

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2 Team - Parlay 3 units
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Ovince Saint Preux ML (-300)
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Jessica Andrade (W) ML (-400)

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2 Team - Parlay 3 units
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Alexa Grasso (W) ML (-300)
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Ovince Saint Preux ML (-300)


I am going to add more, including a letter ticket but this is what I have so far...
 
Btw, props to everyone who posts their bets in these threads. It shows where people really are and who consistently wins and loses money. Also, big props to EZ for overseeing all of this.
 
2u hamilton -160

1.5u morono +130

1.5u skelly -200

0.5u Tanaka/ramos O1.5 -155

0.5u Torres NSC -140 after seeing how rawlings looked at the weigh ins

Thinking of going bigger on hamilton but not sure yet. Will probably add one or more parlays later. The women on this card are waaaaay to juiced so I might play hill simply because the line is out of control but I think i prefer livebetting that one.
 
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Basek said:
Andrade vs Hill u 2.5 (2.0) for 50
Hamilton (1.58) for 100
Trujillo (1.90) for 150
Zombie (2.50) for 50
Morono (2.0) for 100
Torres ( 1.40) for 50
Skelly (1.40)+Torres(1.40)+Morono(2.0) for 100
Click to expand...
Added :
Jolly 2.50 for 50
Hamilton ko/tko/sub 2.20 for 100
Ramos ko/tko/sub 3.25 for 50
Hamilton 1.53 +Torres (1.36) for 240
Morono (2. 0) + Hamilton (1.53) for 100
Skelly (1.40) + Blaydes (1.45) for 100
 
UFN 104 Risk: 1,280.27
bermudez -127: 200 for 157.35 / KZ split: 10 for 144
herrig +400: 50 for 200 / herrig SUB: 16 for 148 / grasso
trujillo +107: 100 for 107.14 / trujillo DEC: 12 parlays / O1.5: 0 for 18.85 / Vick
OSP SUB: 22 for 99 - 12 parlays / oezdemir
fortuna SUB: 12.50 for 50 - 12 parlays / hamilton
hill +425: 100 for 425 / O2.5: 100 for 92 / andrade
blaydes ITD: 59.94 for 54 / blaydes RD2: 30 for 142.50 - 12 parlays / blaydes RD3: 10 for 100 / miltead
skelly DEC: 25 for 72.50 - 12 parlays / O1.5: 67.50 for 50 / gruetzemacher RD3: 9 for 148.50
tanaka DEC: 12 parlays / ramos
torres -3.5: 133.33 for 200 / torres RD3: 11 for 198 / rawlings
morono +108: 200 for 215 / morono ITD: 12 parlays / morono SUB: 30 for 244.20 / morono RD3: 20 for 255 / price
rountree DEC: 21 for 197.40 / jolly
props
draws: 25 for 1,695
parlays
28 RR for 2,328.12: TrujilloDEC/ blaydesRD2/ fortunaSUB/ OSPSUB/ skellyDEC/ tanakaDEC/ moronoITD
---

yea, this is gonna be a smaller UFC for me
 
Haven't had a chance to catch up on the thread yet, hopefully there's no info that makes me regret any of these plays.

Jung NSC -130 1.3u

Grasso -285 3u

Hamilton -160 13u (Planning to buy out some when Fortuna inevitably gets to +200)
Hamilton KO +150 .5u
Hamilton SUB +1260 .1u
Hamilton RD1 +250 .5u

Andrade -144 3u

Blaydes -185 2.5u
Blaydes RD2 +400 .25u

Skelly -215 5u
Skelly RD1 +225 .25u
Skelly KO +517 .25u

Ramos +170 1u

Morono +110 1u
Morono NSC -115 .6u

Jolly +150 1u


Parlays:

Skelly NSC -294 + Blaydes -250 2.5u for 2.2u

Grasso -290 + Skelly -260 2u for 1.7u

Hamilton -160 + Andrade -185 + Grasso -290 + Skelly -260 + Torres/Rawlings O2.5 -280 1u for 5.3u

Shevchenko -170 + Grasso -400 + OSP -280 + Blaydes -230 + Torres -260 .5u for 2.2u

Hamilton RD1 +235 + Andrade ITD -102 + Blaydes RD2 +400 + Skelly RD1 +225 .25u for 26.7u

Hamilton KO +130 + Andrade -102 + Blaydes ITD -120 + Skelly ITD +107 + Torres NSC -117 .25u for 7.8u

Skelly -250 + Torres -240 + Not Nurmagomedov ITD -265 1u for 1.7u
 
2u Morono +120
2u Hamilton -164
1u Grasso + OSP -120
2u Skelly + Blades +217
1u o1.5 Tanaka-Ramos + o2.5 Torres - Rawlings +104
0.5u Parlay : Torres, OSP, Morono, Hamilton, Skelly, Blades, Grasso +1593
1u Abel -116
0.5u Hill +335
2u Blaydes ITD -105
1u Blaydes KO + Hamilton KO +400
2u Hamilton + Torres +110
1u Parlay : Skelly + Morono+ Hamilton + Blaydes + Grasso +400

Biggest event this year for me. It's probably either very good or very bad.

Good luck to everybody ! Let's go green!
 
Singles
Trujillo: $15 to win $13.64
Skelly ITD: $15 to win $11.11
Morono: $12.50 to win $13.75
Bermudez: $12.50 to win $7.58
Hamilton: $11.25 to win $6.82
Hill: $5 to win $15
Jolly: $3.75 to win $5.25


Parlays
Grasso + OSP: $7.50 to win $6.19
Grasso + Blaydes: $7.50 to win $6.97
OSP + Skelly: $7.50 to win $6.59
Blaydes + Torres: $7.50 to win $7.40
Skelly + Tanaka: $7.50 to win $7.40
Tanaka + Torres: $7.50 to win $7.40
Field over Matsuyama (Phoenix) + KZ/Berm ITD + Vick/Truj ITD: $2.50 to win $6.09
Field over Matsuyama (Phoenix) + Not Andrade Rd 1 + Milstead/Blaydes ITD + Rawlings/Torres Dec: $2.50 to win $5.44

Total Risk $125
 
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0.8u KZ itd +275
0.1u KZ r4 +2500
0.1u KZ r5 +3300

1.3u Grasso dec +110
0.2u Grasso r2 +700
0.2u Grasso r3 +1100
0.2u Herrig sub +1000

1.5u Vick ml +100
0.2u Vick r2 +1400

2u Hamilton -188
1.33u Hamilton -172
0.67 Hamilton itd +120
0.2u Hamilton r3 +1200

0.67u Andrade/Hill u2.5 +100
0.67u Hill dec +900
0.33u Hill sub +1800

1.33u Blaydes ml -222
1u Blaydes itd -112
0.3u Blaydes r2 +475
0.1u Blaydes r3 +950

0.2u Skelly ko/tko +535

1u Torres dec -147
0.33u Torres itd +500

0.67 Morono ml +100
0.4u Morono dec +375
0.2u Morono r3 +1100

1u Jolly ml +140


0.8u Morono ml + Blaydes ml +191
0.3u Rountree r1 + Hill/Andrade gtd +630
1.3u Grasso ml + Torres ml -102
0.8u Hamilton ml + Torres dec +149
0.7u Skelly ml + Ramos/tanaka o1.2 +126
1u Hamilton ml + Skelly ml +116
1u Hill/Andrade u2.5 + OSP ml +171
0.7u Hamilton itd + OSP itd +267
0.5u Blaydes ml + Skelly ml + Torres ml + Grasso ml + Andrade ml + OSP ml + 635

Not so comfortable with the majority of my bets being on mid-tier heavyweights and wmma, but I've profited the past 7 events, about 70u in total so I wont feel too bad losing. (my units were only about 30$, raised it too 50 for this event, so no big money)
 
Oblivian said:
Singles
Trujillo: $15 to win $13.64
Morono: $12.50 to win $13.75
Bermudez: $12.50 to win $7.58
Hamilton: $11.25 to win $6.82
Hill: $5 to win $15
Jolly: $3.75 to win $5.25


Parlays
Grasso + OSP: $7.50 to win $6.19
Grasso + Blaydes: $7.50 to win $6.97
OSP + Skelly: $7.50 to win $6.59
Blaydes + Torres: $7.50 to win $7.40
Skelly + Tanaka: $7.50 to win $7.40
Tanaka + Torres: $7.50 to win $7.40
Field over Matsuyama (Phoenix) + KZ/Berm ITD + Vick/Truj ITD: $2.50 to win $6.09
Field over Matsuyama (Phoenix) + Not Andrade Rd 1 + Milstead/Blaydes ITD + Rawlings/Torres Dec: $2.50 to win $5.44

Total Risk $110
Click to expand...

Edited - forgot my Hill bet.
 
Andrade ITD 1u at 1.83
Skelly ITD 2u at 1.90
Bermudez/Zombie under 4.5 2u at 1.90
 
2 units on Morono @ +105
3 units on Hamilton @ -166
0.1 units on Andrade/Hill U2.5 @ +180
0.5 units OSP/Volkan U2.5 @ -106
2 units Skelly/Blaydes parlay @ +101
0.25 unit donation on Hill @ +435 out of principle

Plus a few small 0.05 unit prop plays and long-shot parlays
 
Berm dec 1.5u +157
Grasso KO .6u +350 Herrig sub .3u +950
Vick/Trujillo goes the distance .57u +175
Hamilton dec .66u +300 Hamilton -3.5 1u -130
Hill dec 1.38u +720 Hill/Andrade FOTN .15u +900
Blaydes sub .29u +850
Skelly itd .8u -103
Ramos/Tanaka goes the distance 2.9u +135
Torres dec 3.5u -145
Morono 2.5u +100
Jolly .3u +135

RR in 3s, 4s, 5s -- Hamilton, Grasso, Blaydes, OSP, Skelly, Torres. Think the risk was 5.9u in total

Might add to the round robin.
 
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2.5u Morono +105
1u Grasso/Blaydes/Skelly +149
2u Grasso/Skelly -117
.75u Jolly +135
 
Unlike most people, I'm loving this card for betting. Fading most of the market with these over spots on Hill and Fortuna.

Morono +100 - 2u
Ramos +175 - 2u
Gruetzemacher +210 - 1u
Milstead/Blaydes o1.5 -110 to win 1u
Hill +400 - 1u ... o2.5 +115 - 2u
Fortuna +170 - 1u ... o1.5 -110 - 2u
OSP -300 to win 1u
Vick -105 to win 4u (will hedge to 2u if given a decent opportunity)
Grasso -280 to win 1u

GL to all
 
2.5u Ramos/Tanaka O1.5 + Hamilton ITD + Torres 4.43
2.5u Blaydes + Trujillo 2.60
2.5u Torres + Skelly + Milstead/Blaydes ITD 2.42

These are my main bets this time.
I do trust Torres way more than Grasso or Andrade, good thing that her line is also the best out of those three.
 
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