Your Official UFN 104 Bets

[Orion]

Threw just 1 in the hat..don't like this card for betting:

parlay:

$5 to win $750

Grasso -340
Morono -105
Trujillo ITD +145
Andrade by TKO/KO +476
Torres ITD +323 (I'm sure this will screw me if the rest hit)

 

[Dooze]

2U Submission attempted in Abel/Vick + Bermudez/KZ fights @ +120
0.4U Grasso points/Abel points/ Ramos points @ +6650 (free bet)
0.4U Ramos points @ +650 (free bet)
0.4U Hamilton ITD + Blaydes KO @ +340 (free bet)
0.2U Tecia Torres r3 @ +1600
0.2U Rountree dec @ +1000

 

[Cord]

Andrade ITD 1u at 1.83
Skelly ITD 2u at 1.90
Bermudez/Zombie under 4.5 2u at 1.90

Impressive KZ.
2.70u profit for me.

 

[piglord]

WINS

Torres, skelly £365 returns £766

Ramos £37 returns £87

LOSSES

Bermudez, gdr £100 returns £333

Grasso, Bermudez £100 returns £214

Grasso, Bermudez, £55 returns £107

Trujillo, grasso, bermudez £87 returns £297

Osp, Trujillo £21 returns £55

Osp, Trujillo, £75 returns £175

Morono £50 returns £100

Milstead £50 returns £200

Morono, torres, skelly, Hamilton, grasso, Trujillo, Bermudez £25 returns £571

Torres r3, grasso sub, Hamilton itd £10 returns £4095

Hill £10 returns £55

Hamilton, grasso £100 returns £220

Torres, Hamilton £85 returns £187

Hamilton, grasso £89 returns £190

TOTAL INVESTMENT: £1259

LOSS: £406

what can i say? i got every single bet wrong on the main card. i had a feeling it was going to be a completely ridiculous night and i was proved right. oh well, not a huge loss and i have much stronger leans on the next two cards.

 

[iGnP]

KZ TKO (+646) risk: 0.1u to win 0.65u +0.65u

Grasso by DEC (+105) risk: 2u to win 2.1u -2u

Hamilton (-195) risk: 1.95u to win 1u -1.95u

Vick (-115) risk: 1.15u to win 1u +1u
[Trujillo TKO (+290) risk: 0.5u to win 1.45u
(Freeroll) NOT Trujillo TKO (-273) 1.37u to win 0.5u]
>updated stake: Trujillo TKO 0u to win 0.08u +0u

Hill/Andrade Goes to Decision (+125) risk: 1u to win 1.25u +1.25u
Hill by DEC (+550) risk: 0.2u to win 1.1u -0.2u

Blaydes wins in rd 2, 3 (+475, +1000, respectively) risk: 0.1u each
Blaydes wins in rd 2, 3 (+450, +950, respectively) risk: 0.15u each +0.9u

Morono (+105) risk: 0.4u to win 0.42u -0.4u
Morono by DEC (+316) risk: 0.6u to win 1.9u -0.6u

Torres by DEC (-170) risk: 0.85u to win 0.5u +0.5u
Rawlings by DEC (+362) risk: 0.1u to win 0.36u -0.1u

Added plays during event:

Ramos (+110) risk: 0.5u to win 0.55u +0.55u

Bermudez by DEC (+198) risk: 1u to win 1.98u -1u

-------------------------------------

-1.4u on the day if my count is right. Could have been a negligible amount but I bet on Bermudez dec right before the main event. Oh well, could have been worse. Damn you Hamilton and Grasso (still <3 you though, Grasso)

 

[t6p]

0.5u Korean Zombie ITD +315 +1.58u
0.2u Korean Zombie SUB +450 -0.2u
0.1u Korean Zombie RD4 +1900 -0.1u
0.1u Korean Zombie RD5 +2700 -0.1u

0.15u Grasso SUB +1000 -0.15

1.15u Vick -115 +1u
0.25u Vick SUB +385 +0.96u
0.1u Vick RD3 +1275 +1.28u

0.5u Hamilton ITD +112 -0.5u

0.5u Hill +400 -0.5u
0.1u Hill DEC +730 -0.1u

0.5u Blaydes ITD +100 +0.5u
0.2u Blaydes RD2 +475 +0.95u
0.1u Blaydes RD3 +1000 -0.1u

0.5u Rawlings +350 -0.5u

1u Morono +100 -1u
0.1u Morono RD3 +1225 -0.1u

0.15u Rountree DEC +900 -0.15u

0.5u Ramos-Tankaka o1.5/Hamilton +116 -0.5u
0.1u Morono/Blaydes ITD/Hill-Andrade o2.5/Hamilton/Vick +1716 -0.1u
0.1u Skelly SUB/Hamilton KO/Grass DEC +1101 -0.1u

Added :
0.4u Hill +600 -0.4u
0.1u Hill +2000 -0.1u

NET: +1.57u

Started off horribly but Vick and KZ saved me. Small profit but I'll definitely take it.

 

[NorthernLights]

- 0,1u

Saved from complete disaster by livebetting on Herrig and adding some last minute bets on KZ fight...but I was dead wrong about most of the fights tonight that I felt fairly confident in.

 

[EzFlyer]

UFN 104 Net: -601.98
bermudez -127: 200 for 157.35 / ITD: 30 parlays / KZ split: 10 for 144
herrig +319: 119 for 380 / herrig SUB: 16 for 148
trujillo +108: 150 for 162.14 / trujillo DEC: 25 for 167 - 12 parlays / DEC: 50 for 50 / O1.5: 0 for 18.85
OSP SUB: 22 for 99 - 12 parlays / OSP DEC: 20 parlays
fortuna SUB: 12.50 for 50 - 12 parlays / O1.5: 34.50 for 30 / hamilton DEC: 20 parlays
hill +779: 205 for 1,596 / hill SUB: 5 for 107.50 / hill +5.5: 50 for 200 / O2.5: 100 for 92 / NOT andrade ITD: 30 parlays / andrade DEC: 20 parlays
blaydes ITD: 59.94 for 54 / blaydes RD2: 30 for 142.50 - 12 parlays / blaydes RD3: 10 for 100 / blaydes DEC: 20 parlays / DEC: 20 for 74
skelly DEC: 55 for 176.30 - 32 parlays / NOT skelly ITD: 30 parlays / O1.5: 67.50 for 50 / gruetzemacher +700: 40 for 280 / gruetzemacher RD3: 9 for 148.50
tanaka: 1 for 3 / tanaka DEC: 12 parlays
torres -3.5: 50 for 104.17 / torres RD3: 11 for 198 / ITD: 25 for 125
morono +108: 200 for 215 / morono ITD: 12 parlays / morono SUB: 30 for 244.20 / morono RD3: 20 for 255 / morono NSC: 30 parlays
rountree DEC: 21 for 197.40
props
FOTN: hill-andrade: 5 for 45
FOTN: morono-price: 6 for 42
draws: 25 for 1,695
parlays
28 RR for 2,328.12: TrujilloDEC/ blaydesRD2/ fortunaSUB/ OSPSUB/ skellyDEC/ tanakaDEC/ moronoITD
50 RR for 758.42: OSPDEC/ hamiltonDEC/ andradeDEC/ blaydesDEC/ skellyDEC
40 RR for 199.43: bermudezjungITD/ NOTandradeITD/ NOTskellyITD/ moronoNSC
---

not much to say, i'm in a funk.

 

[weedreference]

Unlike most people, I'm loving this card for betting. Fading most of the market with these over spots on Hill and Fortuna.

Morono +100 - 2u
Ramos +175 - 2u
Gruetzemacher +210 - 1u
Milstead/Blaydes o1.5 -110 to win 1u
Hill +400 - 1u ... o2.5 +115 - 2u
Fortuna +170 - 1u ... o1.5 -110 - 2u
OSP -300 to win 1u
Vick -105 to win 4u (will hedge to 2u if given a decent opportunity)
Grasso -280 to win 1u

GL to all

-3u or so

Added a dumb bet on Milstead, though I was pretty unlucky with the knee injury. The o1.5 probably would have hit.

Horrific bets on OSP and Grasso... especially Grasso, who had no chance of finishing and looked ridiculously bad. I was right that her grappling was up to par, but I forgot how bad her striking actually is. The OSP fight was another case where the guy looks terrible in his regional fights and somehow performs well in the UFC (Niko Price has been another).

Losing 3u isn't that bad considering I went 4-8 and both my juiced favorites lost.

 

[2bet]

2.5u Ramos/Tanaka O1.5 + Hamilton ITD + Torres 4.43
2.5u Blaydes + Trujillo 2.60
2.5u Torres + Skelly + Milstead/Blaydes ITD 2.42

These are my main bets this time.
I do trust Torres way more than Grasso or Andrade, good thing that her line is also the best out of those three.

I am so pissed at myself.
After winning 10units with the first UFC event this year, I am down 3 units now.
Right before doing the picks for next weeks UFC I will remind myself how much I hate the feeling of losing money due to degen gambling shit.

I had very strong leans this card, and except for Hamilton every strong lean worked out exactly as I thought it would.
I just have to stop doing unnecessary bets... or at least just put 0,1units on them, and not parlay them with nonsense.

f.e. I was superconfident that Grasso/Herrig went to a decision (1,61), everything seemed to point to it - but why did I parlay this OSP/Oezdemir ITD (1,28)? There was zero value in this, I should have known better and I really deserve to get burned for shit like that.

Good thing that the next event is around the corner already, I will act disciplined this time.

 

[Shoulder]

2U@Hamilton 1.58
1U@Hill 4.50
1U@Zombie ITD @3.75
0.2U@Herring Sub @11.00

Down about 0.6U which is fine considering my biggest bets where Hamilton and Hill, but I should hade lb Herring more when I got her at 2.50 in the second. And I was so confident in Zombie, should have put more on him.

 

[cCrown]

2u hamilton -160

1.5u morono +130

1.5u skelly -200

0.5u Tanaka/ramos O1.5 -155

0.5u Torres NSC -140 after seeing how rawlings looked at the weigh ins

Thinking of going bigger on hamilton but not sure yet. Will probably add one or more parlays later. The women on this card are waaaaay to juiced so I might play hill simply because the line is out of control but I think i prefer livebetting that one.

Okee this card was such a disaster. I even put an extra unit on hamilton just before the event. and to top it all off i put a unit on herrig at -200 after the fight was already over. I was too much of a p*ssy to put down 6 or more units which would've made it a winning night. That was free money

With judging being in such a funky place I just don't fucking trust judges especially when it comes to wmma and I would've hated to be in the hole for more than 5 units on this.

In the end i'm down around -3 units. Luckily i won 4 units last week so that leaves me with a very small profit over the last 2 events but ill take it given the cards we have to deal with.

Congrats to the people that killed it. Hopefully i'll turn it around next week.

 

[pytycrys]

2u Morono +120
2u Hamilton -164
1u Grasso + OSP -120
2u Skelly + Blades +217
1u o1.5 Tanaka-Ramos + o2.5 Torres - Rawlings +104
0.5u Parlay : Torres, OSP, Morono, Hamilton, Skelly, Blades, Grasso +1593
1u Abel -116
0.5u Hill +335
2u Blaydes ITD -105
1u Blaydes KO + Hamilton KO +400
2u Hamilton + Torres +110
1u Parlay : Skelly + Morono+ Hamilton + Blaydes + Grasso +400

-5.6 units overall.
Hamilton and Morono screwed me.

 

[Basek]

Added :
Jolly 2.50 for 50
Hamilton ko/tko/sub 2.20 for 100
Ramos ko/tko/sub 3.25 for 50
Hamilton 1.53 +Torres (1.36) for 240
Morono (2. 0) + Hamilton (1.53) for 100
Skelly (1.40) + Blaydes (1.45) for 100

Overall -400 PLN (- 100$) . Hamilton & Morono killed me, Zombie and Ramos at small parlays save it from total disaster.
That card supoused to be easy payday went awful . Gratz all winners !

 

[Sham5916910]

1.3 units Blaydes + Grasso

1.3 units Hamilton + Torres

3.3 units Skelly + Grasso (buying out of this bet worst case i lose 0.66 units unless theres a fuckin draw)

Made a complete hash of this card jumped the gun before watching tape fully. Hoping lb is going to be good.

Hated this card knew one or more of the juiced favs would shit the bed. Cannot believe how shit Grasso looked tho. I changed who i was on all week my gut sat right with no one. Luckily lb saved me. Ramos dec +750 Andrade dec +600 and hammering herrig ml meant including boxing winnings 2 units profit. I thought to myself id be happy to break even betting on b/c level fighters so ill take it.

 

[timmyclax22]

Ramos (+125) +$40
Hill (+600) -$6.67

+$33.33 Overall.

 

[Oblivian]

Got brutalized. I'm pretty sure this was my worst event ever.

 

[null]

Anthony Hamilton getting knocked out by a late notice light heavyweight was abysmal. Huge swing on OSP from pre-fight and live betting, especially since nearly all media outlets on MMA Decisions gave it to him. Thankfully, I took advantage of the late steam on Grasso to put more down at a ridiculous +340 on Felice Herrig and then Korean Zombie also came through with the first round knockout to net me about 3.68 units for the card.

UFN 104 Results

Chan Sung Jung (+169) vs Dennis Bermudez $100.00 for $169.00= $169.00
Chan Sung Jung wins by TKO/KO (+731) $25.00 for $182.75= $182.75
Chan Sung Jung/Dennis Bermudez Under 2½ (+169) $100.00 for $169.00= $169.00

Felice Herrig (+280) vs Alexa Grasso $100.00 for $280.00= $280.00
Felice Herrig (+340) vs Alexa Grasso $150.00 for $510.00= $510.00
Felice Herrig wins by submission (+800) $25.00 for $200.00= -$25.00

Abel Trujillo/James Vick Over 1½ (-132) $52.80 for $40.00= $40.00
Abel Trujillo wins by 3 round decision $20.00 for $122.00= -$20.00

Ovince Saint Preux (-310) vs Volkan Oezdemir $620.00 for $200.00= -$620.00
Ovince Saint Preux wins by submission (+400) $25.00 for $100.00= -$25.00
Ovince Saint Preux wins in round 2 (+400) $25.00 for $100.00= -$25.00
Live In-Play Volkan Oezdemir (+100) vs Ovince Saint Preux $300.00 for $300.00= $300.00
Live In-Play Ovince Saint Preux (-103) vs Volkan Oezdemir ~$332.48 for ~$322.80= -~$332.48

Anthony Hamilton (-235) vs Marcel Fortuna $235.00 for $100.00= -$235.00
Anthony Hamilton wins by TKO/KO (+165) $30.00 for $49.50= -$30.00

Angela Hill (+600) vs Jessica Andrade $75.00 for $450.00= -$75.00
Jessica Andrade/Angela Hill Under 2½ (-117) $87.75 for $75.00= -$87.75

Curtis Blaydes wins inside distance (-137) vs Adam Milstead $41.10 for $30.00= $30.00
Curtis Blaydes wins by submission (+850) $20.00 for $170.00= -$20.00

Chas Skelly/Chris Gruetzemacher Over 1½ (-140) $140.00 for $100.00= -$140.00
Chas Skelly wins by 3 round decision (+325) $35.00 for $113.75= -$35.00

Ricardo Ramos/Michinori Tanaka Over 1½ (-210) $210.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Tecia Torres (-280) vs Bec Rawlings $280.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Tecia Torres (-290) vs Bec Rawlings $290.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Tecia Torres wins inside distance (+457) $25.00 for $114.25= -$25.00
Tecia Torres wins in round 3 (+1800) $10.00 for $180.00= -$10.00

Alex Morono/Niko Price starts round 2 (-187) ~$102.86 for ~$55.01= ~$55.01
Alex Morono/Niko Price Over 1½ (-171) $171.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Khalil Rountree vs Daniel Jolly (-168) $168.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Khalil Rountree wins by TKO/KO (+119) $40.00 for $47.60= $47.60

Abel Trujillo/James Vick FOTN award winner (+750) $10.00 for $75.00= -$10.00

Parlay:
Tecia Torres (-400) vs Bec Rawlings + Chas Skelly (-300) vs Chris Gruetzemacher + Curtis Blaydes (-320) vs Adam Milstead + Jessica Andrade (-550) vs Angela Hill + Anthony Hamilton (-210) vs Marcel Fortuna + Ovince Saint Preux (-335) vs Volkan Oezdemir $200.00 for $791.10= -$200.00
-----
Sub-Total= $645.60
Sub-Total= -~277.47 (-0.26694000 BTC)

Total Profit= $368.13

 

[Sadistics]

Haven't had a chance to catch up on the thread yet, hopefully there's no info that makes me regret any of these plays.

Jung NSC -130 1.3u

Grasso -285 3u

Hamilton -160 13u (Planning to buy out some when Fortuna inevitably gets to +200)
Hamilton KO +150 .5u
Hamilton SUB +1260 .1u
Hamilton RD1 +250 .5u

Andrade -144 3u

Blaydes -185 2.5u
Blaydes RD2 +400 .25u

Skelly -215 5u
Skelly RD1 +225 .25u
Skelly KO +517 .25u

Ramos +170 1u

Morono +110 1u
Morono NSC -115 .6u

Jolly +150 1u


Parlays:

Skelly NSC -294 + Blaydes -250 2.5u for 2.2u

Grasso -290 + Skelly -260 2u for 1.7u

Hamilton -160 + Andrade -185 + Grasso -290 + Skelly -260 + Torres/Rawlings O2.5 -280 1u for 5.3u

Shevchenko -170 + Grasso -400 + OSP -280 + Blaydes -230 + Torres -260 .5u for 2.2u

Hamilton RD1 +235 + Andrade ITD -102 + Blaydes RD2 +400 + Skelly RD1 +225 .25u for 26.7u

Hamilton KO +130 + Andrade -102 + Blaydes ITD -120 + Skelly ITD +107 + Torres NSC -117 .25u for 7.8u

Skelly -250 + Torres -240 + Not Nurmagomedov ITD -265 1u for 1.7u

-4u with 1 parlay still alive. Bought out some of the Hamilton bet, 5u on Fortuna at +195, would've been even more of a disaster if I let that ride. I was considering putting 20u on Skelly based on the matchup but regretfully pussed out.