Your Official UFC 211 Bets

Bets so far..


Alvarez+JJ
5U = 15U

Skelly DEC 3.2u = 8.9u

Gordon/Quinones O2.5
Christensen
Reyes/Vick O1.5
Alvarez ITD
0.5u = 18.6u


Jotko
Aguilar
Masvidal
Edgar
Skelly
2u = 33.1u


Vick r2
Skelly r3
JDS ITD
Jotko DEC
Sherman
0.5u = 537u


Couple of lottos :-

Sherman/Coulter O1.5
Christensen
Alvarez ITD
Masvidal ITD
JJ ITD
Cejudo ITD
Edgar ITD
0.1u = 814u


Alvarez DEC
Masvidal DEC
Skelly DEC
Edgar DEC
Aguilar
Vick ITD
Sherman

0.2u = 103u


Last week I predicted a Leites win after analysis and I should've backed that a bit more strongly...
This week my pick is Chas Skelly...
I really like Jason Knight as a fighter, in fact he is probably my favourite and I have backed him every time he's gone into the octagon. Chas Skelly however is a fighter I am also familiar with and with his skill-set and rugged determination I think that he will cause Jason Knight more problems than he can handle. Jason Knight and Chas Skelly are typically rugged fighters, both with a medium-high paced aggressive press who are both comfortable with the fight being brought to the ground. I don't see Knight having the firepower to put away the tenacious Skelly in the first couple of rounds, nor the superior submission game to lock Skelly up. Skelly has had questions raised with his cardio.. however his fight against Elkins proved a few doubters that he could fight for the distance. Knights flaw lately has been his third round, he tends to hang in there and do a Mike Perry.. blocking punches with his face.

I see Skelly surviving a Knight ground scramble at the end of the first round, ultimately turning it into a striking matchup in the 2nd and 3rd with several failed mutual takedowns. Skelly to out volume Knight in the 3rd to take a unanimous win.

Good luck with the event fellas
 
UFC 211 Risk: 2,292
Miocic -115: 115 for 100 / O2.0: 69 for 50 / JDS
Andrade +150: 150 for 225 / O3.5: 140 for 100 / JJ
maia +100: 300 for 300 / maia DEC: 50 for 218 / maia SUB: 50 for 217.50 / masvidal
edgar -140: 140 for 100 / rodriguez
pettis NSC: 50 for 121.50 / O2.5: 190 for 100 / cejudo
alvarez +100: 100 for 100 / alvarez DEC: 34 for 99.96 / poirier
skelly +100: 150 for 150 / knight RD3: 10 for 155
branch +140: 100 for 140 / O2.5: 295 for 150 / jotko
polo +355: 50 for 177.50 / vick
casey +100: 100 for 100 / jag
barzola +140: 100 for 140 / O2.5: 99 for 55 / benitez
quinones-gordon: idk
sherman-coulter: idk
antigulov-christensen: idk
props
parlays
---

might not do many props this event.. idk. we'll see
 
Yair £200 returns £500

Masvidal £100 returns £210

Benitez, vick £120 returns £250

Andrade £100 returns £250

Masvidal ko, andrade itd, yair, Poirier £10 returns £495

Jotko, vick, casey, Poirier, yair, pettis, benitez, masvidal, knight £10 returns £715

Vick, jotko, yair, knight, Poirier, casey, sherman, benitez, Andrade, masvidal ko £7 returns £4475
 
1u JDS @ + 160
1u Maia @ + 110
1u Knight @ Evs
1u Branch @ +120
1u Alvarez @ EVS
 
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So that I'm not violating the rules...

1 unit = $100

I have not calculated what percentage of my bankroll that is because I had a good Derby weekend. I also have no cap as I'm on an independent book. I also have no livebetting though.

3 units 2 team parlay
Maia (+115)
Frankie Edgar (-130)

2 units 2 team parlay
Edgar (-130)
Sherman (-155)

2 units 2 team parlay
Casey (-120)
Sherman (-155)

2 units 2 team parlay
JJ -160
Sherman -155

2 units 2 team parlay
Knight +110
Benitez -200

3 units 2 team parlay
Edgar -135
Benitez -200

3 units two team parlay
Knight +110
Vick -400

2 units two team parlay
Miocic -110
Maia +115

3 units Maia +115
 
1 unit Andrade @ +149
2 units Maia @ +111
0.5 unit Jotko / Branch o2.5 @ -210
2 units Casey @ -110
1 unit Sherman @-144
0.5 units Barzola +162

May stab Christensen and Polo Reyes small because of their odds, but haven't yet.
 
JDS +175 1u

Andrade +163 4u
Andrade NSC -135 4u

Maia -120 2u
Maia/Mas Draw +5500 .1u

Poirier +100 2u
Poirier NSC -130 4u

Edgar -130 1u

Knight +110 1u
Knight NSC -114 2u

Jotko -151 2u
Jotko DEC +165 1u

Casey -114 1u

Benitez SUB +695 1u


Swanson -3.5 -350 (won) + Andrade NSC -135 2u for 2.5u

Andrade +5.5 -225 + Yair +3.5 -225 2u for 2.2u

Andrade +5.5 -225 + Poirier +3.5 -205 2u for 2.3u

Knight +3.5 -225 + Casey NSC -225 + Benitez NSC -300 1u for 1.8u

Vick -333 + Benitez -188 3u for 2.8u


If Edgar gets to evens I'm adding another unit or 2. Real tempted to play Benitez now that he's -140, but think I'm good with the 3u parlay with him and Vick.

Between these, a unit spread out on a few lotto parlays and event props, I'm set. Been a long 3 weeks, good luck all!
 
8u Maia @ +110 (got carried away, not even sorry)
1u Sherman/Benitez @ +190
2u Stipe/JJ @ +180
1u Branch/Alvarez/Skelly @ +400
1u Frankie/Benitez @ +160
 
$100 parlay Almagro (won)/Stipe @2.3
$30 parlay Mas/Poirier/Miocic @5.59
Will add more later, waiting for line movements...
 
Andrade 1u +130, Andrade NSC 2.5u -115
Maia 1.75u +115, Maia +3.5 1u -150
Yair dec 1.15u +415, Yair NSC 1u -150
Branch dec .4u +243
Eddie dec .6u +270, Fight goes the distance 1.2u +105
Knight 4u +100
Vick sub 1.33u +190
Quinones .66u +135
Casey .55u -120, Casey NSC 1.66u -160
Sherman .33u -145, Sherman NSC .66u -138, Sherman -3.5 .5u -105
Benitez 2.2u -165

Parlay in 3s. Total of like 2.3u @ risk to win something like 18u -- Casey, Benitez, Sherman, Quinones, Branch/Jotko o2.5, Maia, Andrade, JDS

Eyeing JDS. Trying to figure out something to do with the o2.5 for Branch/Jotko but no good parlay lines. Really wanna buy out some of Knight action but not looking good. Smh @ myself, too much risk and the NSC line is better imo. Will prob throw a small flyer on Joachim as well.
 
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1U Dos Santos @ $2.45
0.625U Dos Santos @ $2.55
1.25U Dos Santos/Miocic O1.5 @ $1.50
1.5U Joanna Champion @ $1.55
1.25U Maia @ $1.80
0.75U Maia @ 2.05
1U Edgar @ $1.48
1.25U Edgar @ $1.80
1.25U Jotko @ $1.67
1.25U Poirer @ $2.00
Still deciding on Skelly vs. Knight.

11.38U deep at $40/unit!
 
some props, some middles, and some big bets near the bottom.

Reduced on 5 times so what I can fire sorta limited.


115 100 5D Miotic -115 (\
35 464 5D Masvidol wins in 3rd rd
10 195 5D Jedrzejczyk wins in round 4 +1950
10 255 5D Jedrzejczyk wins in round 5 +2550
20 38 5D johanna score cards no action
10 46.5 5D Rodriguez wins by TKO/KO +465* vs Any other result
25 31.25 5D T.J. Dillashaw +125*
68 40 5D T.J. Dillashaw/Cody Garbrandt Over 3½
41.25 25 5D Junior dos Santos/Stipe Miocic Over 1½
54 20 5D Karolina Kowalkiewicz/Claudia Gadelha Over 2½ -270*
50 72.5 5D Dave Branch +145
20 32.6 5D Edgar (scorecards = no action) +163
100 365 Marco Polo Reyes ML UFC 211
30 46 WestGate David Branch +155
25 47.5 WestGate Barzola ml ufc 211
25 21.75 WestGate Casey ML ufc 211
20 116 5D Pettis wins by 3 round decision
20 116 5D Pettis wins by 3 round decision
10 58 5D Pettis wins by 3 round decision
50 57.5 5D Eddie Alverez ML ufc 211
15 50.25 5D Polo Reyes +335
25 33.75 5D Jedrzejczyk wins by 5 round decision +135
5/10 125 89.25 Westgate Benitez Ml vs Barzola
5/10 10 64.8 5D Miocic wins by 5 round decision +648
5/10 23 20 5D Poirier / Alvarez goes 3 round distance
1.47 80.85 5D Mavidal/Maia draw
5 250 5D Barzola / Benitez draw +5000
15 26.4 5D Casey wins by 3 round decision +176
364 260 Westgate Benitez Ml vs Barzola
240 200 5D Miotic ml
1999 2799 JDS +140
250 238 MasVidol wins
125 100 boyd mitoic wins
423 150 pinni Claudia Gadhela ML vs Corlina Kerozlwski
160.5 150pinni courtney casey ml
799 1278 Barzola ml vs benitez
625 500 Round 3 starts pk (-125 miotic vs dos santos
999 1548 JUNIOR DOS SANTOS +155
$75.00 $273.75 Marco Polo Reyes +365 for GAME
$40.00 $62.00 David Branch +155 for GAME
$25.00 $38.75 Jessica Andrade +155 for Game
 
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We need a "dislike" button for poor formatting, lol.
 
Alright my elite bets are placed. Here they are. 4 leg parlays FTW! :) Feel free to tail and win easy money.

Benitez $210 to win $325
Sherman $210 to win $350
Casey $150 to win $270
Jotko $150 to win $270
Knight $300 to win $600
Alvarez $210 to win $400
Maia $300 to win $555
Andrade $150 to win $450
Miocic $180 to win $325

Knight+Sherman+Benitez $300 to win $1500
Jotko+Casey+Antigulov+Sherman $300 to win $2000
Andrade+Maia+Knight+Antigulov $150 to win $1600
Alvarez+Stipe/JDS O1,5+Antigulov/Christensen U1.5+Benitez $150 to win $1300
(MM+Gunnar+Swanson+Maia+Alvarez+Gus) $300 to win $2800

#RedemptionTime, #PaybackTime, #FuckBookies, #EliteBetting, #ExpertBettor, #RIPRobbie, #HighLeve
 
$$ Antigulov/Vick/Alvarez parlay $$

$$ Yair Rodriguez via KO/TKO $$

$$ Jorge Masvidal via KO/TKO $$
 
Miocic 1u @1.86
Miocic dec 0.2u @6.0
Miocic - JDS O2 0.3u @1.9
Miocic - JDS O3 0.25u @2.5
Andrande 1u @2.49
Maia ML 2.2u @1.95
Maia dec 0.5u @5.36
Maia sub 0.5u @2.8
Maia win R2 0.25u @6.5
Maia - Mas U2 0.3u @1.88
Maia - Mas U1.5 0.3u @2.55
Maia - Mas draw 0.1u @55.0
Rodriquez ML 1.5u @2.4
Rodriquez dec .5u @3.7
Poirier ML 3.8u @2.05
Branch ML 0.25u @2.37
Reyes ML 1.5u @4.3
Casey 0.5u @1.93
Benitez 0.5u @1.71
Christensen 0.25u @4.5
ML Benitez / Jotko - Breach O2.5 parlay 0.25u @2.03

I fell into a little bit of mania after opening an account at 5dimes and got all those props to fool around with. Acting on vaguely rationalized premonition that Maia will get a sub in round 2 seems quite odd in retrospect especially as Maia by sub was 2.8 back then. I should have used slightly smaller bets, because I'm only trying to learn how to find value on props. I'm mostly happy with Ml-lineup. Reyes feels like best line and Poirier and Maia at 2+ have value for sure. I only regret getting involved with Stipe line. JDS at 2.5+ seem like a great deal at hindsight. Most of the undercards bets are copy-paste.

Edit. Last additions:

JDS R4/R5 á5 e @19.0/26.0
Sherman ML 0.5u @1.98
Knight - Skelly draw 0.01u @55.0

Parlays:
Skelly / Reyes 0.1u @7.3
Reyes / Maya dec 0.05u @18.75
Reyes-Jotko/Branch O2.5/Texeira parlay 0.1u @14.0
Skelly / JDS / Edgar 0.1u @7.6
 
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Masvidal 1.5u @2.10 / Masvidal r3 0.1u @15.00 / Draw 0.1u @67.00
Andrade 1u @2.50
Eddie Alvarez 1u @2.10
Yair Rodriguez 1u @2.40
Jotko DEC 0.5u @2.40
Sherman 1u @1.90 / Sherman dec 0.1 @10.00
Polo Reyes 0.4u @4.00
Jotko - Branch o2.5 + Polo Reyes - Vick ends ITD 1u @2.20
 
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