Ouch. Lmao. That's all you can do. Time for Plan B.
Ouch. Lmao. That's all you can do. Time for Plan B.
Ouch. Lmao. That's all you can do. Time for Plan B.
Masvidal 1.5u @2.10 / Masvidal r3 0.1u @15.00 / Draw 0.1u @67.00
Andrade 1u @2.50
Eddie Alvarez 1u @2.10 Voided
Yair Rodriguez 1u @2.40
Jotko DEC 0.5u @2.40
Sherman 1u @1.90 / Sherman dec 0.1 @10.00
Polo Reyes 0.4u @4.00
Jotko - Branch o2.5 + Polo Reyes - Vick ends ITD 1u @2.20
Think I'm finally set for now unless lines shift or I add more of the later props. Definitely think this will be the card that finally forces me to sit down at look at my betting structures, since the way I bet JJ and Maia is just downright stupid for this card. Gonna put some of the blame on boredom/degen instincts and putting down a stupid 2u RR weeks ago during the withdrawal period of no cards, but I definitely cost myself money with poor betting structure. Regardless, here are my plays.
3.1u Maia +110 + 3.41u
0.66u Maia SUB/ITD +380 (So much line movement) -.66u
2u Edgar -130 +1.54u
2u JJ -155 +1.3u
1u Poirier EVs
0.33u Poirier ITD +240
1.33u Stipe -120 +1.1u
1u Christensen +240 -1u
1.8u Christensen ITD +542 (movement) -1.8u
2u Jotko -145 -2u
0.6u Jotko DEC +165 -0.6u
1.33u Knight +110 +1.463u
0.4u Knight DEC +265 -0.4u
1u Sherman ITD +143 +1.43u
0.33u Pettis DEC +580
0.66u Polo Reyes +305 (Think the line is still moving up so haven't booked yet) -0.66u
1.25u Sherman/Coulter u1.5 -125 -1.25u
0.07u Maia/Masvidal DRAW -.07u
0.33u Benitez ML + Jotko/Branch o2.5 + Sherman/Coulter u1.5 + Knight ml +600 (Another boredom play I actually don't remember making) -0.33u
And now the stupid RR and subsequent stupid hedges that I made because of it. Just outright bad.
RR'd in 2-4 legs: Maia SUB + JJ DEC + Edgar DEC + Cejudo/Pettis GTD. Total risk 2.2u to win~17.5u.11u. -2.2u
Dumb Hedges
1u Maia DEC +354 (More line movement) +3.54u
1u Yair DEC +271 -1u
1.25u Andrade NSC -125
0.33u Andrade TKO/KO +515 -.33u
0.33u Andrade DEC +380 -.33u
0.33u JJ ITD +349 -.33u
0.66u Christensen DEC +650 (Kind of forced this on myself with the movement, should just be ML, I'm dumb) -.66u
Aaaand a lotto RR in 2-5 team parlays. Christensen TKO/KO + Stipe DEC +Pettis DEC+ Polo KO/TKO + Maia ITD. Total risk: 1u to win867.8u253u. Planned on it being Christensen DEC but the TKO line was just way too good, so that could be tilting. -1u
TLDR: Total risk is about 30 Units. Way too many. I'm also effectively 7u deep on Maia without a hedge, so will likely look to change that. 2nd biggest play is Joachim Christensen. Oh boy.
Gonna be a wild one
EDIT: Damn Cejudo's hand. Lot of weird plays now.
Added a second lotto out of tilt from the cancellation; makes no sense.
RR in 3s and 5: Christensen TKO/KO + Stipe DEC + Polo KO/TKO + Maia ITD + Knight R3. -.33u Risk: 0.33u to win around 833u
1U Dos Santos @ $2.45
0.625U Dos Santos @ $2.55
1.25U Dos Santos/Miocic O1.5 @ $1.50
1.5U Joanna Champion @ $1.55
1.25U Maia @ $1.80
0.75U Maia @ 2.05
1U Edgar @ $1.48
1.25U Edgar @ $1.80
1.25U Jotko @ $1.67
1.25U Poirer @ $2.00
Still deciding on Skelly vs. Knight.
11.38U deep at $40/unit!
Added 1.13U Skelly @ $1.90
Now at an even $500 for the event.
Miocic 1u @1.86
Miocic dec 0.2u @6.0
Miocic - JDS O2 0.3u @1.9
Miocic - JDS O3 0.25u @2.5
Andrande 1u @2.49
Maia ML 2.2u @1.95
Maia dec 0.5u @5.36
Maia sub 0.5u @2.8
Maia win R2 0.25u @6.5
Maia - Mas U2 0.3u @1.88
Maia - Mas U1.5 0.3u @2.55
Maia - Mas draw 0.1u @55.0
Rodriquez ML 1.5u @2.4
Rodriquez dec .5u @3.7
Poirier ML 3.8u @2.05
Branch ML 0.25u @2.37
Reyes ML 1.5u @4.3
Casey 0.5u @1.93
Benitez 0.5u @1.71
Christensen 0.25u @4.5
ML Benitez / Jotko - Breach O2.5 parlay 0.25u @2.03
I fell into a little bit of mania after opening an account at 5dimes and got all those props to fool around with. Acting on vaguely rationalized premonition that Maia will get a sub in round 2 seems quite odd in retrospect especially as Maia by sub was 2.8 back then. I should have used slightly smaller bets, because I'm only trying to learn how to find value on props. I'm mostly happy with Ml-lineup. Reyes feels like best line and Poirier and Maia at 2+ have value for sure. I only regret getting involved with Stipe line. JDS at 2.5+ seem like a great deal at hindsight. Most of the undercards bets are copy-paste.
Edit. Last additions:
JDS R4/R5 á5 e @19.0/26.0
Sherman ML 0.5u @1.98
Knight - Skelly draw 0.01u @55.0
Parlays:
Skelly / Reyes 0.1u @7.3
Reyes / Maya dec 0.05u @18.75
Reyes-Jotko/Branch O2.5/Texeira parlay 0.1u @14.0
Skelly / JDS / Edgar 0.1u @7.6
.02u Aguilar/Casey draw @81.00L
.02u Alvarez/Poirier draw @81.00 L
.02u Maia/Masvidal draw @81.00 L
.02u JJ/Andrande draw @81.00 L
.02u Edgar/Rodriguez draw @81.00 L
1u Benitez/Sherman/Skelly/Jotko @10.47 L
1u Miocic/Edgar/JJ/Alvarez/Maia @15.9 W (Adjusted profit +8.43u)