UFC 212 - Aldo vs Holloway - Rio de Janeiro

[TheOneTrueKing]

wait, is that a real stat?

sorry. 1/6 against southpaws in ufc
source http://mixedmartialanalyst.com/ufc-212-aldo-vs-holloway-breakdown/

 

[MMA Goodfella]

and he handles the kicks how? you wrote all that without even mentioning them? eventhough holloway have shown in the past that his ability to check kicks have been lackluster to say the least.

I didn't go into the leg kicks because everyone and their brother knows that Jose Aldo throws vicious leg kicks. I should have added a bit about them but I may do just a bit of a breakdown on how that I believe that they will not materialize. Jose Aldo has thrown less and less leg kicks over the years and has taken more of a boxing centric approach. He's that good that he only needs to work with his hands and brick wall takedown defense to win fights. As for the low leg kicks and why I believe that they will not be a factor. Max Holloway fights like a switch hitter. He is consistently alternating from lefty to righty and the leg kick simply isn't going to be there.

He is also excellent at evading them. When a LK is thrown the best technique is to thrust your ass back and let the kick pass you and then counter with a straight right. Alternatively you counter with a LK of your own. Max is excellent at this. I'll try to get a GIF of this.

If you look at the second fight with Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo didn't land very many leg kicks whatsoever. What's more, those that he threw didn't connect with the concussive force Aldo is known to generate. That's because of the way Chad was standing. His wide shoulder width stance and heavy back foot kept Aldo from battering him. Max Holloway is likely to take a similar route.

The leg kick for Aldo has generally been there against squared up wrestle-boxers with limited striking who are heavy on their front leg looking to shoot for the takedown. Max Holloway is not going to be heavy on either leg and is going to be floating around the octagon accentuating his 5'11" frame. I also think he will crowd Aldo to negate the setup. But mostly it's the pressure that will limit the LK's from Jose. To throw a leg kick you need space and time to set it up, if Max is consistently angling thing crowding Jose he's not going to be able to get off like he wants.

Jose Aldo is absolutely the greatest fighter the lower weight classes I've ever seen. Vintage Aldo is probably top three fighters to ever step inside the cage. If this was four years ago Aldo washes Max. However, at 26 years old Max is improving in every single appearance and I think he has the style to get it done. I wouldn't be surprised if I was wrong but I watched a lot of footage and he matches up very well stylistically against Jose.

The two fighters who gave album of the most trouble — save for Chad Mendes in their second fight – is Kenny Florian and Mark Hominick. Something about The frame and ability to strike somewhat competitively with Aldo made them have brief moments of success. Granted he won both matches convincingly, however Holloway is far better than either of those two at their point and Aldo has taken Ia lotof damage and sustained multiple injuries..

. Again I wouldn't be surprised if Aldo picked up the win in convincing Aldo fashion, but for value I'm definitely going to put something on Maximus

 

[Card]

 

[NinjaCat456]

This was uploaded a week ago but Spicely is sounding supremely confident.

 

[EzFlyer]

This was uploaded a week ago but Spicely is sounding supremely confident.

dude i might bet spicely NSC or something. spicely rd 3 +2450..

edit:

...i just hedged my shoeface KO +600 play and took some spicely NSC +279 and spicely rd 3 +2450... i am seriously going to lose this week, my hot streak is NOT gonna continue..

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Over the course of Jose's last five fights not including McGregor and Ricardo Lamas his leg kick game has been limited.


Frankie Edgar 4 in 15 minutes
Chad Mendes II 7 in 15 minutes
Frankie II 10 in 15 minutes
Kenny Florian 12. In 25 minutes
Korean zombie 2 in 15 minutes

Like I was typing earlier, Jose Aldo simply doesn't throw as many leg kicks as he used too. Go back to his UFC debut and WEC days feel the difference:

Manny G 5 in 6 minutes
Mike Brown 5 in 6 minutes
Uriah Faber 29 in 25 minutes
Mark Hominck 19 in 25 minutes
Jonathan Brookins 25 in 15 minutes


Lamas 22
Ricardo Lamas is an outlier I believe given that he is almost exclusively a wrestler depending upon grappling and slow as Grade A molasses.

 

[onC]

Pretty heavy on Moyle @+140. Pereira looked awful in her debut and got gifted the win. She landed 1.67 strikes per minute on Laterneou who was dead tired for most of the fight... Atleast Moyle has shown some heart. I think her knees in the clinch may be the difference here.

Slight edge to Moyle, but probably pretty close to 50-50 after you consider how Pereiras home crowd may affect the judging.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Had a dream that spicely kod Carlos jr... not good. Last weekend had the same shit with damir winning with held

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Who are we picking as the three fighters most likely to win lads?

Aldo, Claudia and Alcantara?

 

[Sham5916910]

This was uploaded a week ago but Spicely is sounding supremely confident.

Well i wouldnt expect him to talk like a defeated man. He has very limited striking hence why he panic shoots every fight and he doesnt react well at all to being hit all hyperbole for me. Hes even talking of making a run for the title lol

 

[Orion]

Over the course of Jose's last five fights not including McGregor and Ricardo Lamas his leg kick game has been limited.


Frankie Edgar 4 in 15 minutes
Chad Mendes II 7 in 15 minutes
Frankie II 10 in 15 minutes
Kenny Florian 12. In 25 minutes
Korean zombie 2 in 15 minutes

All wrestling threats with the exception of KZ. The style matchup with Holloway is perfect to bring them out. Max never checks kicks, isn't going to be shooting doubles, they will slow his pace down, and interrupt his rhythm.

Aside from leg kicks, I think the biggest factor in this fight will be the speed difference -- I think Aldo is going to be the quicker fighter.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

170 lbs.: Erick “Tiger” Silva (19-7, 1 NC) vs. Yancy “The Kid” Medeiros (13-4, 1 NC)

Prediction: Medeiros third round TKO

You don't think location factors into this at all? Medeiros has had one fight outside of the US, a bout in Brazil against Francisco Trinaldo where was on the receiving end of a one sided beatdown.

By contrast, Erick Silva is 6-2 in Brazil (no I'm not counting that bullshit Yamasaki fuck up against Prater).

In such a close affair, could where they're fighting make the difference?

 

[Sham5916910]

You don't think location factors into this at all? Medeiros has had one fight outside of the US, a bout in Brazil against Francisco Trinaldo where was on the receiving end of a one sided beatdown.

By contrast, Erick Silva is 6-2 in Brazil (no I'm not counting that bullshit Yamasaki fuck up against Prater).

In such a close affair, could where they're fighting make the difference?

Yancy had some success against trin had him out on his feet end of r2 it wasnt entirely one sided

 

[onC]

Who are we picking as the three fighters most likely to win lads?

Aldo, Claudia and Alcantara?

Definitely not Alcantara after his performance against Sanders. Im on Kelleher and feel good about it.

Gadelha, Shoeface and Borrachinha imo

 

[Orion]

Definitely not Alcantara after his performance against Sanders. Im on Kelleher and feel good about it.

Not a fan of Alcantara's chin against Kelleher's lack of power and willingness to go to the ground. What is your analysis of the fight that is leading you to pick Kelleher?

 

[Tirimasuperman]

nsc

Still relatively new to MMA betting, what does NSC mean?

 

[Tebowned]

Good Luck tomorrow guys.

On Max, Claudia, vitor, borracho, Erick, marlon, shoeface, maybe Eduardo, kelleher, moyle, chagas, and Beltran.


Everything pretty small except max and shoe face.

 

[onC]

Not a fan of Alcantara's chin against Kelleher's lack of power and willingness to go to the ground. What is your analysis of the fight that is leading you to pick Kelleher?

There's no analysis. You cant make an accurate analysis because there's barely any material available on Kelleher. From what I've seen, Kelleher has some pretty good wrestling and gnp and that may just be enough to beat a declining Alcantara.

It's mostly just a case of a well known fighters line getting out of control against an unknown newcomer. If Alcantara didnt pull off the miracle kneebar against Sanders, this line would be alot tighter. I've always liked Alcantara but I really struggle to give him over 70% here.

 

[plekz]

I didn't

come on man, you are smarter then this. he hasn't 'turned' into a boxer, he has been kicking less because he has fought grapplers it's as simple as that. he started kicking less after edgar managed to time a couple in the first dance they had, and he stopped throwing them against kz because he fractured his foot in the first round, and not because kz 'timed' and checked a kick but because he threw a technique at the same time aldo did.

and what you are saying about holloway being a switch hitter? then how come lamas, pettis and stephens were all landing on holloway just fine? the difference being here that none of them have anywhere near the power aldo has. we are talking about some one that throws with picture perfect technique, foot pointed outward and zero 'hip' tell meaning you get pure shin meets muscle on the poor guy being hit.

Frankie Edgar 4 in 15 minutes (GRAPPLER)
Chad Mendes II 7 in 15 minutes (GRAPPLER)
Frankie II 10 in 15 minutes (GRAPPLER)
Kenny Florian 12. In 25 minutes
Korean zombie 2 in 15 minutes (FOOT INJURY)

stop trying to sidestep facts.

also, max does stand heavy on his front leg. and when did kenny have ''success'' against aldo? aldo kicked kenny twice and after that kenny turned into a 'wrestler' and tried to desperatly hold onto aldo every chance he was given. two kicks is what it took and after that kenny was fighting aldo in a way where he was desperatly trying to not end up on a highlight reel.

every breakdown iv'e heard (including ruebush and co) have all mentioned the fact holloway tend to stand heavy on his front leg, and that he's more the type to absorb strikes rather than avoid them. but according to you this simply isn't true?

pettis broke his hand in the first round, and eventhough he lost the round he was still keeping up fine for the first few, and jeremy stephens did not make holloway look like no worldbeater, and all jeremy did was use legkicks and try to take holloway's head off with every shot.

 

[DevilsPt2]

GADELHA DEC OVER
JUNIOR ITD
LOPEZ ITD
D. ALCANTARA ITD
MEDEIROS ITD FDGD
COSTA ITD FDGD
ALDO DEC OVER
PEREIRA DEC OVER
BELFORT ITD FDGD
WALLHEAD ITD FDGD
ASSUNCAO DEC OVER
KELLEHER DEC OVER

In order of confidence.