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I hope he performs well and makes it an exciting fight, but Thompson is good at keeping people on the end of his kicks, which puts him out of range for Jorge's punches.
Without threatening with takedowns, Wonderboy is likely to pick him apart.
ADD: With that said, I think Jorge's durability and better grappling make for a more interesting title fight against Woodley, and he's also worked his ass off to get to this point. I hope he gets the win, just don't see how without takedowns or at least clinching to bring him in range/nullify Thonpsons striking game.
Straight kicks can be parried or swept aside, I assume Jorge has Wonderboy's front leg side kick to the body and hook kick to the head scouted and countered, like he did Cowboy's switch roundhouse to the body.
I think the grappling dimension is worth a mention here like you said, he has a clear advantage on the ground and a very capable takedown game of his own, which could be enough to make Wonderboy tentative like Woodley did.