UFN 117 - OSP vs Shogun II - Japan

[MMA Goodfella]

We dont really know how hard ja is to td. We cant just assume cos shes a fire hydrant shes hard to td. I can only go off what ive seen and at sw noone besides string bean penne has tried to take her down. At 135 carmouche and raquel hit easy td's. I know they are 135ers but cg is a far better wrestler than both. For 2 rounds cg was pretty much taking jj down at will and her tdd is amazing. Ja is strong but im very confident she lacks the technique to continually stop cg td's. No one has ever managed to. Has keeping her down never been easy? Carmouche and raquel absolutely tooled her from top position and they are not the grapplers gadelha is. She also ran into a reneau triangle twice inside 10 seconds. I do not trust ja's ground game at all. She was also saved by the bell against sarah moraes if cg gets her back good night and sweet dreams.

No way im not trusting cg here. Shes only ever lost to jj once in a controversial dec and the rematch she was two rounds up. Cg has basically shoen herself to be almost impossible to beat over three rounds. I also dont expect ja to be overly aggressive the td threat will change the dynamic here massively.

Ps raquel beat aes with a bulldog choke not ja she rnc andrade.

BOL but like I said it's a potential trap fight. Like Lineker v. McCall or TJ vs Assunsćao or Tito v Bader or many other scenarios where the fighter expected to win was looking past their opponent and towards a title shot. Claudia has all the potential in the world to beat Jessica, but she could very well be looking past her and this is not easy fight at all. I believe that it looks easier on paper and it is in real life. I can be proven wrong. Have been 100 times. Hell, I still have a fucking hat to eat for chrissakes.

But, Jessica was taken down by Rocky and Liz because they dwarf her in size. I mean, she's like 5 '2" stilettos and she now fights 20 damn pounds less than where she was. Liz and Rocky are huge 135 pound female fighters. Also, Jessica is only like 25 or 26 years old I believe. So she was fighting them at 22/23 years old. I also think that Claudia is the second best in that division — potentially the best. Full stop. If she gets her cardio and check — where she can beat Joanna.

Nevertheless, Jessica is a fucking little fireplug with bricks for hands and a vice grip of a guillotine squeeze. She has paths to victory here. She's far from one dimensional, and she has three ways to get a victory. It's just hard laying the juice on any female fight. I could easily see Jessica clocking Claudia, and then Claudia being a bit scrambled and shooting a panic double whereupon she gets choked unconscious. Like Bader and Tito.

Don't get me wrong, I believe you will cash your ticket. I'm just playing odds here. And not big. I think Claudia should be somewhere around -169 not-280 ...

 

[turbozed]

Noticed that there's no point spread props available for this event. Has 5D nixed this prop or is it just not available for FN cards?

 

[null]

Noticed that there's no point spread props available for this event. Has 5D nixed this prop or is it just not available for FN cards?

Point spreads have always been made available for Fight Night cards unless there were a few exceptions I do not recall. Check the BestFightOdds archive to confirm. Maybe tomorrow they will be added late.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

JA is strong and durable but who knows if that's enough to stop a td from a good wrestler like CG. JA hasnt really faced any good wrestlers who look to take her down since Liz Carmouche. Liz took JA down with ease and toyed with her on the ground. JA still likes to rush in swarming punches; open for a AG takedown. It is unknown if JA can stop a CG td, imho. JA will fight for your money though.

Yea, you are probably play right. But remember, Jessica was 21 years old when she fought Liz and 20 pounds lighter than she was then. Liz is a monstrous 135 pound fighter. And monstrously strong as well. There is a reason her nickname is "Girl-illa" LOL but at any rate, I'm just going to put a flier on JA.

 

[conmemay]

yeah the fight can be alot closer than the odds suggest and JA can beat any 115 on a given night; just a not sure fight to go big on, imo.
What's your read on the Dy-Ishihara fight? Ishihara is dangerous for 1st 2 rounds. He has the speed and power to hurt and KO Dy. Dy is probably the more technically sound striker with better cardio but he can be hit and Ishihara hits hard. Just a very interesting and entertaining fight. Ishihara r1 and Dy r3.

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

LOL people gotta go all the way back to 2013 to criticise Andrade's grappling. Andrade hasn't really changed her style much over the years but she's gotten better at what she does. Also the difference with Andrade fighting at 115 and 135 is huge. Her cardio is better at 115, she's faster, her output is higher and she matches up much better physically with the 115ers.

Besides JJ, Andrade is probably the worst stylistic match up at 115 for Claudia. Andrade can match Claudia's physicality and she's built to defend takedowns. On the feet I have to favour Andrade based on the pressure and volume, Claudia can hold her own but it's not where she wants to be with Andrade.

I do not agree with the line at all, I think this is a much closer fight.

 

[Sham5916910]

LOL people gotta go all the way back to 2013 to criticise Andrade's grappling. Andrade hasn't really changed her style much over the years but she's gotten better at what she does. Also the difference with Andrade fighting at 115 and 135 is huge. Her cardio is better at 115, she's faster, her output is higher and she matches up much better physically with the 115ers.

Besides JJ, Andrade is probably the worst stylistic match up at 115 for Claudia. Andrade can match Claudia's physicality and she's built to defend takedowns. On the feet I have to favour Andrade based on the pressure and volume, Claudia can hold her own but it's not where she wants to be with Andrade.

I do not agree with the line at all, I think this is a much closer fight.

The Raquel and Reneau fights were both 2015. The Moraes fight was also 2015 where she was saved by the bell. Claudia can match Andrade's physicality too no one has been able to do that at SW. When Andrade has been matched physically she's struggled as her game revolves around out muscling and overwhelming opponents. Andrade defending td's because she's a fire hydrant is hyperbole at this stage, especially when we saw Raquel and Carmouche hit easy td's. Claudia has the best td's in the division and Andrade is a turtle off her back.

 

[vkram]

Glad that they cancelled Hirota/Rosa. Hirota was in no shape to compete.

 

[ill800]

Glad that they cancelled Hirota/Rosa. Hirota was in no shape to compete.

He was in great shape to compete if you bet rosa...

 

[EzFlyer]

Womp-Womp

Hirota out. My boy @EzFlyer busts out his copy of the Torah scroll and thx God.

Oy Vey Hirota. All this mishegas with this weight nonsense. Schmuks and shmendriks his camp is run by my great-grandma might say lol.

If he was healthy and fresh I think i as on the right side.

We'll probably never know

 

[EzFlyer]

Noticed that there's no point spread props available for this event. Has 5D nixed this prop or is it just not available for FN cards?

It's just the Friday card thing. We'll have spreads later today, I think.

 

[AxeMurderer]

It's just the Friday card thing. We'll have spreads later today, I think.

I hope so. +3.5 is my play for Andrade. Hopefully the odds will be good enough.

 

[MT6ix]

Anybody else on the thread betting on Alex Morono?

Morono was piecing up Niko Price until he gassed and I think Niko Price is pretty legit. I think Morono is going to
light up Nakamura on the fight. I don't see Nakamura winning unless Morono gasses and Nakamura is able to drag him to the ground for a RNC for some miracle submission. If the fight goes to the scorecards, Morono is going to win off volume. It's a hard fight to predict though.

I'm just worried that because it's in Japan, some of the hometown fighters are going to be super motivated to win. I still remember Wanderlei Silva (Pride) taking every bomb that Brian Stann threw and wouldn't drop when we thought his chin was shot

 

[MMA Goodfella]

If he was healthy and fresh I think i as on the right side.

We'll probably never know

I was with you. I had already put money down. I'm glad to get it back though. ..... I thought that Pugnus would give Rosa lots of potential problems and I liked his line. But goddamn, when he almost died on the scales that sent me into a frenzy. And Rosa would've been kicking the shit out of his body + the whirlwind style of his would have made Pugnus tired as shit. Hirota needs to be fortunate that the "five second WI lady" wasn't in front of the scales yesterday, or we would have seen our first collapse and it would've been a pr disaster.

 

[AxeMurderer]

Anybody else on the thread betting on Alex Morono?

Morono was piecing up Niko Price until he gassed and I think Niko Price is pretty legit. I think Morono is going to
light up Nakamura on the fight. I don't see Nakamura winning unless Morono gasses and Nakamura is able to drag him to the ground for a RNC for some miracle submission. If the fight goes to the scorecards, Morono is going to win off volume. It's a hard fight to predict though.

I'm just worried that because it's in Japan, some of the hometown fighters are going to be super motivated to win. I still remember Wanderlei Silva (Pride) taking every bomb that Brian Stann threw and wouldn't drop when we thought his chin was shot

I think wand not cutting weight helped him absorb more punishment than he use to after coming to UFC. I think it's been mentioned and I agree with that morono has a pacing issue. Either starts too slow or too fast. That added to the travel is what is making people lean towards nakamura.

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

So far I got

3U Kondo +110
3U Jameau/Kim -110
3U Nakamura +115

Still considering
Andrade
Henrique
Sasaki

All 3 are live dogs IMO

 

[Sham5916910]

Andrade power is overrated too much like Jeremy Stephens. One ko in 11 UFC fights and that was against Penne.

 

[Oblivian]

Anybody else on the thread betting on Alex Morono?

Morono was piecing up Niko Price until he gassed and I think Niko Price is pretty legit. I think Morono is going to
light up Nakamura on the fight. I don't see Nakamura winning unless Morono gasses and Nakamura is able to drag him to the ground for a RNC for some miracle submission. If the fight goes to the scorecards, Morono is going to win off volume. It's a hard fight to predict though.

I'm just worried that because it's in Japan, some of the hometown fighters are going to be super motivated to win. I still remember Wanderlei Silva (Pride) taking every bomb that Brian Stann threw and wouldn't drop when we thought his chin was shot

Morono has a major issue with pacing and cardio. I think Morono is getting overrated going into this fight. Keep in mind that most thought he lost to Noke. He then fought Moontasri, and it was sloppy as hell. Both fighters gassed horribly. Against Niko, he looked pretty good at first, but got sloppy again. Not a good sign.

 

[piglord]

all my action is on the first 3 fights, this is going to be ridiculous.

 

[Tebowned]

I'm not betting on Claudia yet but I don't see any value in Andrade. She was a middling contender at 135, top 10 at 115, but don't see her beating JJ, Claudia, Karolina, Rose, or Tecia Torres.