UFN 123 - Swanson vs Ortega - Fresno, CA

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Orion said:
Am I the only one that thinks Alcantara wins again Perez here? Perez looks like another mediocre fighter in the same vein as someone like Marco Beltran. I don't see what he offers that neutralizes the huge upside of Alcantara -- especially when considering the numerous bad spots Entwhistle had him in.
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I'm very confident on Iuri here. Look at Perez last 4 fights -

Souk - most had him losing the decision
Morales - most had him losing the decision
Entwistle - a fighter who exclusively pulls guard and dives for leglocks until he subs you or you pound on his face enough
Jorgensen - long washed up Jorgensen was on 1 leg for a round and a half and still kept giving Perez problems

I mean you can also say Iuri got beat down by Sanders before the sub and ran into a guillotine against a lower tier fighter in Kelleher. But I don't think Perez has the output or finishing ability to beat him here. As long as Iuri doesn't do anything really stupid it should be an easy win for him imo
 
Benitez sub +1431 is nice line IMO (unfortunately for me I already took it at +1065), especially if Knight is planning to look for takedowns as he's said he will in interviews. Benitez has a nasty guillotine and I think sub could be his most likely path here. Benitez NSC +374 is pretty nice too.
 
I had to throw another 1.5 units on Moraes. I think he controls this fight pretty easily.
 
Arkham's Notorious Geyser said:
Is wider good or bad? Still quite new to this whole thing, and want to put money on Moraes, but don't know the best place to do it.
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Depends on what side you're betting on lol. If you're looking to pick underdogs, wider is better. But if you're on a favorite, you also may be more likely to get a better number with opening lines on 5dimes.

For example, a fighter you like may open at -150 on Monday at 5dimes. By Wednesday there's a lot of money coming in on them and they're -200 at 5dimes, but Bovada finally puts the lines out and has that fighter at -190.

Prop bets are also important and those lines will shift drastically before Bovada has them, which is usually within 24 hours of a fight while other sites will have them a few days before a fight.

You can see an odds comparison here though - https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-fight-night-123-swanson-vs-ortega-1386 . They actually show 5dimes with better odds on Moraes than Bovada with -140 compared to -150
 
Confident plays for the card :-

Ramos - feel like he has the ability to hang strike wise and is certainly the more powerful. He can get the fight to the floor and is light years ahead techically on the mat. As long as he employs a grappling heavy approach i cant see him getting grafted on by Gruetz. Ramos rd1 sub.

Moraes - as long as he is able to keep the fight standing i think he will get a dec win. Striking is more acurrate than Sterlings but its a risk considering theres not much tape of his TDD. Might add sub prop for Sterling.

Scott Holtzman - much more athletic than Horcher. Although he doesnt look like someone who is gunna pull up a finish in every fight he is certainly dangerous. Fighting someone like Horcher who is still probably recovering in a way I think he will be far too strong. Holtzman ko rd1

Knight - i love this guy, one of my favorite fighters and has been since his debut. Bet against him vs skelly and regretted it as soon as it went on. I see him dragging Benitez to the ground and getting a quick sub to show he isnt just a gatekeeping statesman. Knight rd1
 
Just watched gritz fight against skelly

He looked horrible. With some goofy knuckles camp now. Looked weak and slow. Just flat. Skelly easily took him down and submitted him. If he’s still at that camp and training the same way Ramos will run through him

I’d probably pass on +400 after seeing that sad performance and listening to stann talk about his latest camp
 
Am I the only one liking Sterling at these odds? I still believe in him improving, his hand are getting better and he has excellent kicks. Moreas has a fight what, three weeks ago and Sterling should be able to outwreatke him.
 
I am baffled by the Ramos line. His wrestling is mediocre, and on the feet all he does is wing shots. Gruetzemacher can easily win this by outlasting him.
 
EndlessCritic said:
I am baffled by the Ramos line. His wrestling is mediocre, and on the feet all he does is wing shots. Gruetzemacher can easily win this by outlasting him.
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His wrestling is mediocre? He's a multi-time BJJ world and pan-american champion. He fought Moraes (also a very talented BJJ artist) up a weight class on very short notice, and they both just kept it on the feet. Gritz is moving up a weight class here to fight Ramos.
 
EndlessCritic said:
I am baffled by the Ramos line. His wrestling is mediocre, and on the feet all he does is wing shots. Gruetzemacher can easily win this by outlasting him.
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Yea I thought that too about the line until I watched gritz last fight. Looks to have regressed with his new team. He didn’t have the strength to deal with skelly. Couldn’t stop his takedowns. And Ramos is a tank.
 
Took some notes on Ramos after tape last week.

3rd degree BJJ black belt with a long list of accomplishments in the sport. Incredibly good chain grappler with his subs, scrambles, and wrestling. However, he's much better in the gi and goes for stuff that usually only works in a gi. He's a switch stance fighter with power, prefers to counter strike, feints well, good outside leg kicks. He's a decent striker but he puts everything into every shot and his counter style makes him low volume. Hard to gauge his cardio as his recent 3 rounders have been slow paced. Looked to be pretty gassed in his loss to Rickels 3 years ago. His debut was 9 days short notice a weightclass up against Moraes in a terrible stylistic match up. Gritz gave up his back 3 times against Lloveras, and once against Skelly which is all he needed to finish the fight. Ramos doesn't go for many TDs, I assume he's trying to conserve his energy, but he has great chain wrestling with a variety of TDs.

Would've been all over that -180 opener if I could still use 5D
 
Played davis dec line +250 hedged with davis itd +500

Dog or pass written all over it.

Yea davis hasn’t looked good since her return but Liz is nothing special. Davis could easily outpoint her
 
Ukram said:
Sherdog preview up
http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/1/Preview-UFC-Fight-Night-123-Swanson-vs-Ortega-130045
Picks

Main card:
Cub decision
Knight sub
Moraes decision
Holtzman decision
Anders (decision or finish)
Lopez decision

Prelims
Carmouche decision
Sanders decision
Perez points
Saenz decision
Luri
Ramos decision
Neto sub or decision
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Surprised they have so many decisions here tbh. There's a lot of finishing ability even in the lower weight classes on this card

Them going with Neto is pretty juicy too. Giles is a legit prospect and EASILY outgrappled a bjj specialist in his debut. Coming off a 3 year layoff and fighting mostly stand-up guys in his career makes Neto a risky dog to me
 
ill800 said:
Just watched gritz fight against skelly

He looked horrible. With some goofy knuckles camp now. Looked weak and slow. Just flat. Skelly easily took him down and submitted him. If he’s still at that camp and training the same way Ramos will run through him

I’d probably pass on +400 after seeing that sad performance and listening to stann talk about his latest camp
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what did stann say about his latest camp??
 
piglord said:
what did stann say about his latest camp??
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From memory: Cut back on sparring. Trying to give his body a break and let it recover. Looked a lot leaner. Don’t think many fighters if any in the ufc are from 2 knuckles academy
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
Gritz did this camp at ATT

gotta do that instagram capping

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Yea I looked for a sec and couldn’t find much

If I was him I’d never step foot back in 2 knuckles. He looked horrible

Att a much better look.
 
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