The Big Short of the Yuan. China is fading.

[VivaRevolution]

Chinese markets are in trouble once again.

China’s currency is down nearly 1% from Friday’s close, wiping out the yuan’s gains for the year, after the People’s Bank of China cut reserve requirements for banks over the weekend. Slowing growth and rising trade tensions are pummeling Chinese shares, with the Shanghai Composite entering a bear market Tuesday. And rising defaults are testing the country's gargantuan debt market.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/has-the-big-yuan-short-finally-arrived-1530005935

China’s yuan fixing on Tuesday gave a hint that the nation’s authorities may be growing concerned about the pace of the currency’s decline, according to Royal Bank of Canada.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...y-may-be-sign-china-is-wary-of-slump-rbc-says

Man, I'm no fan of China, but this is fake news.


The blatant increase in anti-china media stories since the trade issue started building steam, is ham handed, and why I hate the media.

When 10 out of 10 stories about China, go from China's unparralelled growth, and the new Chinese century, to China's rising economy is crashing, that is called propaganda.

When 10% GDP growth is a crashing economy, here is your sign.

 

[JonesBones]

Man, I'm no fan of China, but this is fake news.


The blatant increase in anti-china media stories since the trade issue started building steam, is ham handed, and why I hate the media.

When 10 out of 10 stories about China, go from China's unparralelled growth, and the new Chinese century, to China's rising economy is crashing, that is called propaganda.

When 10% GDP growth is a crashing economy, here is your sign.

The numbers don't lie. You just puked out nonsense with no numbers or reasoning besides a conspiracy theory .Look up chinese stocks and american stocks right now. Look up currency. . Jesus Christ. Fuck off. Stupid conspiracy shit. Ruins everything. Come back with numbers or fuck off with your fake news shit.

 

[KILL KILL]

The numbers don't lie. You just puked out nonsense with no numbers or reasoning besides a conspiracy theory .Look up chinese stocks and american stocks right now. Look up currency. . Jesus Christ. Fuck off. Stupid conspiracy shit. Ruins everything. Come back with numbers or fuck off with your fake news shit.

To be fair, they saw a much larger dip in 2015 and 2016, right?

 

[VivaRevolution]

The numbers don't lie. You just puked out nonsense with no numbers or reasoning besides a conspiracy theory .Look up chinese stocks and american stocks right now. Look up currency. . Jesus Christ. Fuck off. Stupid conspiracy shit. Ruins everything. Come back with numbers or fuck off with your fake news shit.

You are the fucking idiot.

The fact that you can't distinguish between cherry picked numbers that are true, and dishonest at the same time, means your opinion isn't worth the Charmin Extra soft I wipe my ass with.

 

[JonesBones]

You are the fucking idiot.

The fact that you can't distinguish between cherry picked numbers that are true, and dishonest at the same time, means your opinion isn't worth the Charmin Extra soft I wipe my ass with.

I am expecting a breakdown of your position. I trade Chinese stocks. I know what is happening. I have my finger on the pulse of it. You are talking out your ass. I am living it. You ruined my thread and ruined my high. Shame on you.

 

[VivaRevolution]

I am expecting a breakdown of your position. I trade Chinese stocks. I know what is happening. I have my finger on the pulse of it. You are talking out your ass. I am living it. You ruined my thread and ruined my high. Shame on you.

I'm not arguing that the Chinese Yuan isn't slumping right now, I am arguing that the narrative changed from the coming Chinese century, to the coming Chinese crash.

Half of China's GDP has always been built on a fraudulent real estate market. The problems China faces today, are the same problems they faced when all the news stories were about the coming Chinese century.

This is what drives me crazy about the way people talk about the media.

Niether the narrative of the coming Chinese century, or the coming Chinese crash are true. It is hyperbolic, and it has a political agenda.

 

[JonesBones]

I'm not arguing that the Chinese Yuan isn't slumping right now, I am arguing that the narrative changed from the coming Chinese century, to the coming Chinese crash.

Half of China's GDP has always been built on a fraudulent real estate market. The problems China faces today, are the same problems they faced when all the news stories were about the coming Chinese century.

This is what drives me crazy about the way people talk about the media.

Niether the narrative of the coming Chinese century, or the coming Chinese crash are true. It is hyperbolic, and it has a political agenda.

I don't mean China is gonna fucking collapse. I mean they are "fading" in the current trade war. It is not like we are pushing the country to the brink of ruin. lol. I said earlier that I invest in Chinese companies and they are some of my favorite stocks. They are cheap now. They aren't dead. Nobody is dead. They are just cheap and I would say undervalued in the long term.

 

[Gunny]

I'm not arguing that the Chinese Yuan isn't slumping right now, I am arguing that the narrative changed from the coming Chinese century, to the coming Chinese crash.

Half of China's GDP has always been built on a fraudulent real estate market. The problems China faces today, are the same problems they faced when all the news stories were about the coming Chinese century.

This is what drives me crazy about the way people talk about the media.

Niether the narrative of the coming Chinese century, or the coming Chinese crash are true. It is hyperbolic, and it has a political agenda.

You have a point that both narratives are hyperbolic but the coming century narrative was the far more hyperbolic of the two. Some of the staggeringly stupid mismanagement of manufacturing and construction projects I’ve seen in China would blow your mind. An economy built on that level of irresponsibility requires a steady influx of outside wealth that they have, to date, siphoned off their willing trade partners. As that changes they will have to go from D- to solid A operators just for the privilege a manageable economic crisis rather than an all out catastrophe. If they don’t step up their game it will be a hard HARD crash - though if I had to bet I suspect they will be able to manage albeit with a fair bit of pain..

 

[VivaRevolution]

You have a point that both narratives are hyperbolic but the coming century narrative was the far more hyperbolic of the two. Some of the staggeringly stupid mismanagement of manufacturing and construction projects I’ve seen in China would blow your mind. An economy built on that level of irresponsibility requires a steady outside influx of outside wealth that they have, to date, siphoned off their willing trading partners. As that changes they will have to go from D- to solid A operators just to have a manageable economic crisis. If they don’t step up their game it will be a hard HARD crash - though if I had to bet I suspect they will be able to manage albeit with a fair bit of pain..

The belt and road initiative, is an example of how central economic planning has value, as well as pitfalls.

China isn't just resting on their luarels.

 

[Gunny]

The belt and road initiative, is an example of how central economic planning has value, as well as pitfalls.

China isn't just resting on their luarels.

Which is why I speculated that they would navigate the oncoming crisis with a fair amount of pain. But it remains so that an inordinate amount of their growth in the past 30 years was gained on the back of Westen markets and, as operators, much of the business class of that country has no concept of how a competitive economy works where there aren’t pots of gold around every corner to plaster over your incompetence. They will have to learn and it won’t be an easy lesson

 

[VivaRevolution]

Which is why I speculated that they would navigate the oncoming crisis with a fair amount of pain. But it remains so that an inordinate amount of their growth in the past 30 years was gained on the back of Westen markets and, as operators, much of the business class of that country has no concept of how a competitive economy works where there aren’t pots of gold around every corner to plaster over your incompetence. They will have to learn and it won’t be an easy lesson

I don't know. I think the new silk road is like pots of gold lying around.

I don't disagree with the rest.

 

[V-2]

The blatant increase in anti-china media stories since the trade issue started building steam, is ham handed, and why I hate the media.

Most of what I've actually noticed has been about how the US not dare challenge China because soy and... reasons. In fact, I don't ever recall a time in my life in which the stateside media was so blatantly anti-American in its slant. The 'arguments' against confronting the PRC are as numerous as they are weak, dishonest and utterly unconvincing. It's past time to pull their card in very public and humiliating fashion with a maximum amount of pressure. I'm going to be very disappointed if Donnie Two Scoops turns down the heat. The don't deserve to be treated with anything but blatant hostility.

 

[VivaRevolution]

Most of what I've actually noticed has been about how the US not dare challenge China because soy and... reasons. In fact, I don't ever recall a time in my life in which the stateside media was so blatantly anti-American in its slant. The 'arguments' against confronting the PRC are as numerous as they are weak, dishonest and utterly unconvincing. It's past time to pull their card in very public and humiliating fashion with a maximum amount of pressure. I'm going to be very disappointed if Donnie Two Scoops turns down the grill.

I agree that when the conversation is trade liberalization and it's retreat, it is propaganda as well.

When the story is about the Chinese economy, I have seen nothing but a narrative of potential collapse and recession for about 2 months now.

Unless of course I am reading the Asia Times where I get the opposite.

 

[Deleted member 457759]

China has millionaires now though who are beloved figures in the country. Like Jack Ma. I don't think they are gonna let all these big companies they built up over the years be hurt so much. Money is flowing into US equities. People are willing to pay twice as much for US equities. Chinese stocks are cheap as shit now. I personally like Chinese stocks. They have been good to me over the year. I would like to see these companies get back on their feet even though I don't own them currently. It is good for the market.

Even Buffett and Munger before all this shit said they like Chinese stocks better than American stocks. I did too. Till Trump.

Which Chinese stocks would you recommend?

 

[Rod1]

Which is why I speculated that they would navigate the oncoming crisis with a fair amount of pain. But it remains so that an inordinate amount of their growth in the past 30 years was gained on the back of Westen markets and, as operators, much of the business class of that country has no concept of how a competitive economy works where there aren’t pots of gold around every corner to plaster over your incompetence. They will have to learn and it won’t be an easy lesson

Most of that competitiveness was given by cheap loans thanks to Chinese savings (they dont have pension systems so they save) in the end when China gets its banking crisis it will be, just like in America and else, the little guy that gets fucked in the ass as their savings evaporate.

Trump hit China good, but whether that breaks them or makes them stronger remains to be seen.

Politically China seems as solid as ever, and their export market is already pretty diverse, that being said, America could try to have its economic allies to also block China, but given how Trump has treated Europe and NAFTA i doubt so.

 

[MadSquabbles500]

They are in trouble here. Their monetary system is very rigid and cannot adjust to change well. Ours is much better that way. Much nimbler. China almost has a gold standard like system and it is harder for them to adjust with economic dynamics.

Can you please explain this? The chinese central planners dont have as much red tape, or bureaucracy, or other people's feelings to worry about when doing whatever they want. The US monetary/financial system apparently has a lot of different parties who want what is best for themselves. The Chinese central planners, and basically China as a whole are just one mind. They can change, break, bend whatever rules or system they have in place.

 

[MadSquabbles500]

Whatever is happening to their currency, is it any worse than GFC? Whatever we did to apparently solve GFC, why cant that simply be implemented by the Chinese central planners?