UFC 226

[MT6ix]

I am just waiting for Perry's line to top out, but can currently freeroll Felder to win 3.1u.

Damn lol, you just roll out of bed and end up hitting a freeroll for 3.1u.

I'm jealous lol but I'm happy when any other posters make money off the books at the same time.

 

[mkess101]

Also agree folks are too excited about Felder, unless the guy KOs you, he doesnt win fights decisively. He gets his KOs through elbows, knees and spinning shit, all of which will put him in Perrys danger zone. Hes landed takedowns in only 2 of his 10 UFC fights. Hes not goin to be playing a game of keeping Perry on the end of long punches, kicks to maintain distance while occasionally mixing in takedowns/clinching when Perry does get close, I'd say hes more likely to brawl. Felder has not been facing hitters either(Trinaldo has a good left and Barboza strong kicks), definitely none like Perry. Perry has a proven chin. Basically I'm saying Felder cant be effective without allowing Perry to be effective and when Perry is effective...oh boy

I actually liked Yancys chances slightly more because maybe he could KO Perry or maybe drop/stun him and lock up a guillotine or RNC. I feel if Felder wins, it will prob be a DEC and it will prob be a close one.

EDIT: Wasnt Felder preparing for Vick? You just know he was focusing on closing the distance, put Vick under heavy fire and try to crack that chin. Thats not good.

This is one of those fights where both guys really like to clinch and readily invite it. I think we may well see a ton of them clinching up and battling for underhooks (although Felder likes to grab the plum too). It's even more interesting because we really don't know how that will play out if it happens. Felder has better technique from what I've seen, but Perry is naturally a bit bigger and you'd think maybe stronger. I do trust Felder's gas tank much more though. If this end up a clinchfest, I think it favors Felder late as both guys use energy up early.

 

[t6p]

I put 2u on Felder +235 pretape as I knew that was a crazy mistep by BOL, but after tape I share many of your thoughts. I still think Felder, being the more technical striker and having more weapons, should be the slight favorite, but I have freerolled to win 3.10u.

That's awesome Stun. When I got the alert about that line dropping I rushed to 5d ready to drop a big bet on Felder. I should probably get a BOL with these ridiculous openers they've been handing out. Wasn't Saurez vs Grasso a pick em? Lmao.

But yea, I think taking the freeroll is the right move.

 

[P4p Islam]

Meaning you like Felder here or you thought the public would be fading Perry harder?

I thought people would be fading perry harder.


I for one refuse to bet on perry fights anymore. I get burned every time. Every time I fade perry, he wins. When I bet on him, he goes out and looks like a total idiot.

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Also agree folks are too excited about Felder, unless the guy KOs you, he doesnt win fights decisively. He gets his KOs through elbows, knees and spinning shit, all of which will put him in Perrys danger zone. Hes landed takedowns in only 2 of his 10 UFC fights. Hes not goin to be playing a game of keeping Perry on the end of long punches, kicks to maintain distance while occasionally mixing in takedowns/clinching when Perry does get close, I'd say hes more likely to brawl. Felder has not been facing hitters either(Trinaldo has a good left and Barboza strong kicks), definitely none like Perry. Perry has a proven chin. Basically I'm saying Felder cant be effective without allowing Perry to be effective and when Perry is effective...oh boy

I actually liked Yancys chances slightly more because maybe he could KO Perry or maybe drop/stun him and lock up a guillotine or RNC. I feel if Felder wins, it will prob be a DEC and it will prob be a close one.

EDIT: Wasnt Felder preparing for Vick? You just know he was focusing on closing the distance, put Vick under heavy fire and try to crack that chin. Thats not good.

I just dont see how you can go from favoring Yancy to being iffy on Felder. Yancy has no chin. He stays on his feet from heart and heart only. Perry would have slept him in a round or two just like Cowboy did. What Cowboy landed on Yancy was nothing special.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

That's awesome Stun. When I got the alert about that line dropping I rushed to 5d ready to drop a big bet on Felder. I should probably get a BOL with these ridiculous openers they've been handing out. Wasn't Saurez vs Grasso a pick em? Lmao.

But yea, I think taking the freeroll is the right move.

@Sadistics said earlier in the thread to give him a shout if you're making an account there. I think hes got some promo codes for ya.

 

[t6p]

I thought people would be fading perry harder.


I for one refuse to bet on perry fights anymore. I get burned every time. Every time I fade perry, he wins. When I bet on him, he goes out and looks like a total idiot.

Haha, I hear you. Dog odds makes it easier to stomach though.

 

[ill800]

So pretape there were a few lines I liked and hit. Been getting into a bad habit of betting without watching tape. Just been really busy, and I’ve been losing.

Anyway, going to study for this one. See some potential value here.

Took Holloway ml -135
Saki ml -135
Holloway +5.5 -185
Holloway -5.5 +145
Font +145

Considering playing hall at his current price.

Dc may be worth a play here as well at over +200

Probably going to pass on felder at his current price. Value is long gone.

Might have to play beast here at over +300.

 

[mkess101]

So pretape there were a few lines I liked and hit. Been getting into a bad habit of betting without watching tape. Just been really busy, and I’ve been losing.

Anyway, going to study for this one. See some potential value here.

Took Holloway ml -135
Saki ml -135
Holloway +5.5 -185
Holloway -5.5 +145
Font +145

Considering playing hall at his current price.

Dc may be worth a play here as well at over +200

Probably going to pass on felder at his current price. Value is long gone.

Might have to play beast here at over +300.

Holloway +5.5 makes little sense to me. He's not gonna lose (or win probably) a close decision imo. If he wins, most likely he makes it look easy. If he loses, T City most likely finishes. You played Max ML and -5.5 too which I like but I think you paid juice needlessly on the +5.5. But...you never know. I could be wrong and this ends up a close barnburber that sees the cards.

 

[Stunna77]

That's awesome Stun. When I got the alert about that line dropping I rushed to 5d ready to drop a big bet on Felder. I should probably get a BOL with these ridiculous openers they've been handing out. Wasn't Saurez vs Grasso a pick em? Lmao.

But yea, I think taking the freeroll is the right move.

Suarez -110 was the reason I made a BOL account lol. However I missed that line by the time my bank ok'd the deposit smh. Still they do release some random openers that make you assume someone is getting fired haha.

 

[DevilsPt2]

I just dont see how you can go from favoring Yancy to being iffy on Felder. Yancy has no chin. He stays on his feet from heart and heart only. Perry would have slept him in a round or two just like Cowboy did. What Cowboy landed on Yancy was nothing special.

Never said I favored Yancy, I prob would have bet Perry KO in that fight. I'm just saying Yancy might have had a better chance to get a finish but like you say, his chin and defense means he may not get that many chances. We know Felder is tough, wedont really know how strong Felders chin is but hes not a defensive wizard either

This is one of those fights where both guys really like to clinch and readily invite it. I think we may well see a ton of them clinching up and battling for underhooks (although Felder likes to grab the plum too). It's even more interesting because we really don't know how that will play out if it happens. Felder has better technique from what I've seen, but Perry is naturally a bit bigger and you'd think maybe stronger. I do trust Felder's gas tank much more though. If this end up a clinchfest, I think it favors Felder late as both guys use energy up early.

Yeah we may see a good bt of clinching but I thnk Felder will have offense on his mind more than defense, more plum than over/under control.

 

[mkess101]

Never said I favored Yancy, I prob would have bet Perry KO in that fight. I'm just saying Yancy might have had a better chance to get a finish but like you say, his chin and defense means he may not get that many chances. We know Felder is tough, wedont really know how strong Felders chin is but hes not a defensive wizard either



Yeah we may see a good bt of clinching but I thnk Felder will have offense on his mind more than defense, more plum than over/under control.

You think Felder's chin is an unknown? I realize it's up a weight class and Perry hits hard, but damn man we've never even seen Felder stunned or rocked. He takes punches (and even kicks from one of the best in the sport in Barboza) and eats them easily.

I'd bet on Felder's chin, even at WW, over Perry's. Perry has been wobbled and in trouble numerous times.

 

[Yotsuya]

This is one of those fights where both guys really like to clinch and readily invite it. I think we may well see a ton of them clinching up and battling for underhooks (although Felder likes to grab the plum too). It's even more interesting because we really don't know how that will play out if it happens. Felder has better technique from what I've seen, but Perry is naturally a bit bigger and you'd think maybe stronger. I do trust Felder's gas tank much more though. If this end up a clinchfest, I think it favors Felder late as both guys use energy up early.

I like this scenario. At this point of his career I think Perry is a bit in fake-it-until-you-make-it stage where as Felder is crazy for real. Grueling clinch exchanges could expose if Perry has any doubts about himself and either put him on backfoot or to trade foolishly to prove a point.

 

[t6p]

You think Felder's chin is an unknown? I realize it's up a weight class and Perry hits hard, but damn man we've never even seen Felder stunned or rocked. He takes punches (and even kicks from one of the best in the sport in Barboza) and eats them easily.

I'd bet on Felder's chin, even at WW, over Perry's. Perry has been wobbled and in trouble numerous times.

Felder was badly rocked at the end of the Saggo fight and was likely saved by the bell. Also, Barboza didn’t land any clean head kicks on him. He did a lot of damage to Felder’s body though.

Perry is going to be the hardest hitter Felder’s ever faced and it’s not particularly close IMO.

 

[Orion]

Shoutout to our boy @EzFlyer for winning 10g's off an $8 entry on DK in their first tennis tournament. I see you big dog

 

[mkess101]

Felder was badly rocked at the end of the Saggo fight and was likely saved by the bell. Also, Barboza didn’t land any clean head kicks on him. He did a lot of damage to Felder’s body though.

Perry is going to be the hardest hitter Felder’s ever faced and it’s not particularly close IMO.

Barboza landed a couple decent head kicks. I'd have to rewatch to see exactly how clean they landed. He also landed clean punches that Felder walked through.

You are right though, I think it was a flush knee from hell that rocked Felder in the Saggo fight. I think iirc he recovered enough just before the bell to say he probably would have survived, but no doubt that hurt him. A flush knee like that though probably puts most guys to sleep.

 

[raketmannen]

So pretape there were a few lines I liked and hit. Been getting into a bad habit of betting without watching tape. Just been really busy, and I’ve been losing.

Anyway, going to study for this one. See some potential value here.

Took Holloway ml -135
Saki ml -135
Holloway +5.5 -185
Holloway -5.5 +145
Font +145

Considering playing hall at his current price.

Dc may be worth a play here as well at over +200

Probably going to pass on felder at his current price. Value is long gone.

Might have to play beast here at over +300.

I'm with you on all of those, but played DC decision at +500 instead of his ml and will bet Perry if his odds improves. Felder is such a hot headed fighter and I have a hard time seeing him sticking and moving for 3 rounds, which is the easiest way to beat Perry. Would not suprise me at all if he got caught up in a brawl were Perry will be the harder hitter and the more physical man in the clinch. I heard on a podcast today that he weighed in at 194 before his fight against Jouban so he will probably have a pretty significant weight advantage over Felder
Also the little glimpse we saw of Perry ground game in the end of the first round againt Griffin looked pretty promising, maybe Jackson/Wink could help him follow a more well rounded and less predictable gameplan

 

[DevilsPt2]

I'm with you on all of those, but played DC decision at +500 instead of his ml and will bet Perry if his odds improves. Felder is such a hot headed fighter and I have a hard time seeing him sticking and moving for 3 rounds, which is the easiest way to beat Perry. Would not suprise me at all if he got caught up in a brawl were Perry will be the harder hitter and the more physical man in the clinch. I heard on a podcast today that he weighed in at 194 before his fight against Jouban so he will probably have a pretty significant weight advantage over Felder
Also the little glimpse we saw of Perry ground game in the end of the first round againt Griffin looked pretty promising, maybe Jackson/Wink could help him follow a more well rounded and less predictable gameplan

You aren't worried about Stipe gassing out? Cormier is smart, it's one of his best fight attributes. You gotta think seeing that Ngannou fight and knowing Stipe has high power(mostly rd 1) Cormier will box only as much as he needs to get inside grappling/clinching range and wear Stipes power down early. Cormier doesnt even need to get the takedown, he just has to make Stipe work and if he does get the takedown you know he will really make Stipe work. If hes making Stipe feel his weight in the first 2 rounds he very well could start beating Stipe up standing while still making him work, up and down, push and pull and he may be able to throw enough unanwsered punches to get the TKO or more likely RNC by rd4 or 5.

What I most worry about is Stipes KO punching ability at short range and DC boxing with him too much too early. I think Stipe needs to KO DC rd1 or 2, most likely while DC is moving forward or it wont happen.

 

[Karmello]

Ever since I saw Roundtree on TUF I thought he was mentally weak and this interview just confirmed that again.

 

[DevilsPt2]

"He's good, he has a few good moves but MMA is like a thousand moves, he has 4 moves." Max Griffin on his upcoming bout with Curtis Millender.

Could not agree more my man.