General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - March, 2018

LFA 48 Risk $1,114.90

Kassius Kayne (-200) vs Calen Born ~$230.40 for ~$115.20
Kassius Kayne (-245) vs Calen Born $122.50 for $50.00
Kassius Kayne (-250) vs Calen Born $250.00 for $100.00
Kassius Kayne (-256) vs Calen Born $512.00 for $200.00
 
Just tuned into LFA 48.

Hopefully these fuckers throw down.

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Brock Smith vs. Joe Boerschig = wrestle fuck
 
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Small chase bet: Ryan Lilley (+350) vs Raufeon Stots $125.00 for $437.50
 
Luke Thomas just had Colby on. Say what you want, that guy is not scared at all to say what he thinks of anyone. Woodley, Till, Usman, Snoop Dogg LOL. Dude was lighting them all up.
 
@JimGunn @Oblivian or anyone else...

LFA thoughts? I'm thinking Webb's line at -190 has some value. Brady should beat Urbina but -300...kinda steep?

That said I've seen relatively little of all these guys aside from Webb.
 
mkess101 said:
@JimGunn @Oblivian or anyone else...

LFA thoughts? I'm thinking Webb's line at -190 has some value. Brady should beat Urbina but -300...kinda steep?

That said I've seen relatively little of all these guys aside from Webb.
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Man, I've had two people out from work the past two days so I'm swamped. I can't look into this event until tonight. I will be betting it though.
 
mkess101 said:
@JimGunn @Oblivian or anyone else...

LFA thoughts? I'm thinking Webb's line at -190 has some value. Brady should beat Urbina but -300...kinda steep?

That said I've seen relatively little of all these guys aside from Webb.
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Didn't have time to look into LFA 49 much despite having several fights with lines. I mostly have been handicapping Glory 58 on at the same time tonight and UFC Moscow tomorrow.
 
Looks like I'm relying on Oblivian alone as Jim Gunn has better things to do.

Jim...you are forgiven. This time...
 
mkess101 said:
Looks like I'm relying on Oblivian alone as Jim Gunn has better things to do.

Jim...you are forgiven. This time...
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I'm winging this one, so I wouldn't tail. I'm actually opposite of your initial thoughts. I feel comfortable with Brady where he sits now. I also like Saraceno at +165. Besides that, I'm on De Jesus and Santiago as dogs. Main/Almeida is a coin flip honestly, so no play at current odds.
 
Oblivian said:
I'm winging this one, so I wouldn't tail. I'm actually opposite of your initial thoughts. I feel comfortable with Brady where he sits now. I also like Saraceno at +165. Besides that, I'm on De Jesus and Santiago as dogs. Main/Almeida is a coin flip honestly, so no play at current odds.
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I'm gonna be with you on Brady. -300 isn't cheap but he should get it done. I'm either gonna bet Webb or pass. Maybe Brady straight and a small parlay with Webb. I'll tail you on De Jesus and Santiago really small for action.
 
brady_dsi.png
 
I ended up on Main as my smallest play which was insignificant. Went 3/5 for a small profit. I definitely don't regret the play on Santiago. I really thought he was going to get the KO throughout a lot of that first round. He was backing up his opponent and making him uncomfortable flinching a lot. Credit to Regman though - that was a perfectly placed punch. On Webb/Saraceno, Saraceno was competitive throughout, but I regret that play a little. With a little bit of fight IQ and not throwing naked kicks while welcoming grappling, I think that fight would have been a coin flip. He was definitely giving Webb some trouble, but he just wasn't ready for someone like Webb who knows how to control position once he gets it.
 
raketmannen said:
Fuck, been watching tape for that one today... was the most interesting fight on the card imo, no idea why it was on fightpass prelims
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Yeah, on paper this was by far the most interesting match up. What was your lean after watching tape btw?
 
Odds for some upcoming Bellator Matchups
 

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Just recorded Episode 33 of my podcast Martian MMA. I discuss the Jon Jones USADA case, recap UFC Moscow, and give betting analysis and prediction for this weekend's Sap Paulo card.

Soundcloud link
iTunes link

Jon Jones USADA case until: 21:40
UFC Moscow recap until: 39:00
UFC Sao Paulo preview until: finish at 1:17:43
 
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