UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

WhosTheBoss said:
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$1057 on the line. Fucking pissed off last night playing poker, was a 90% favorite in a $4600 pot and lost. Said fuck it. Betting the rest of my bal on these fights. And added the patriots giving 8 points.

Let me win gamble gods. Please sherdog pray for me.
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Not tryin to bring you down but you're goin to need to practice much better br management or you will just keep going broke. How do you get into a $4,600 pot with a bankroll of, I'm just assuming here, less than 5K(hope it wasnt more)? Then you put all of what you have left on parlays with fighters who arent even close to locks, I genuinely feel bad for what you're about to go through.

LiquidNuke said:
Rakic wins inside distance -135

Am I missing something? Is this that soft of a supposed match up for Rakic?
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I'm leaning more towards this fight goin to DEC. I dont think Clark will give Rakic much space to work and I'm not impressed with Rakics punching power, as big as he is, he isnt really a 1 strike KO type of guy. I thnk Clark fights LHW instead of MW so he can maintain his cardio and be able to take more punishment since hes not dehydrating so much.

Also decided I'm not betting Ansaroff.
 
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put half a unit on lopez at +225, seems to be the better fighter in every way except cardio.
 
DevilsPt2 said:
Not tryin to bring you down but you're goin to need to practice much better br management or you will just keep going broke. How do you get into a $4,600 pot with a bankroll of, I'm just assuming here, less than 5K(hope it wasnt more)? Then you put all of what you have left on parlays with fighters who arent even close to locks, I genuinely feel bad for what you're about to go through.



I'm leaning more towards this fight goin to DEC. I dont think Clark will give Rakic much space to work and I'm not impressed with Rakics punching power, as big as he is, he isnt really a 1 strike KO type of guy. I thnk Clark fights LHW instead of MW so he can maintain his cardio and be able to take more punishment since hes not dehydrating so much.

Also decided I'm not betting Ansaroff.
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I mean I got my money in ahead. Idc.

The way I see it, I’m 30% to win this parlay.

Valentina feels like a 3-1 fav
Ortega I’m uncertain about 40-6%
And pats should win, but by 8? Idk I hope.

Fuck it.
 
LiquidNuke said:
Anyone have any thoughts on Burns wins inside distance +220?
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http://piglordmma.com/2018/12/05/ufc-231-max-holloway-vs-brian-ortega-betting-predictions/

piglord said:
put half a unit on lopez at +225, seems to be the better fighter in every way except cardio.
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shocked to hear you say that. Even with less experience I think Katona looks much more composed. Katona's got technical boxing with a little bit of power, his level changes and top control are pretty good too.

WhosTheBoss said:
I mean I got my money in ahead. Idc.

The way I see it, I’m 30% to win this parlay.

Valentina feels like a 3-1 fav
Ortega I’m uncertain about 40-6%
And pats should win, but by 8? Idk I hope.

Fuck it.
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seems like a bad bet by your assessment
 
raketmannen said:
I played the under at +195, think it had much more value with Burns questionable chin
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What is your opinion on the Laprise ITD line? That seems almost like free money, at -120 or so. Or am I way off here?
 
Dianabol said:
Just like I can't stand fighters that won't fight for my money in the 3rd round when they are down on the cards, like that bum Ben 10 last weekend.
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The only time I bet on this guy was to beat Smolka. Never touched him again after that. Bum
 
For anyone that can translate

 
I will be ready to become world champion, I've been training like I'm competing, If they put me in on Sat, I will be champion, I have a gameplan for each one, against Max, I have size, BJJ, and a good striker, I'm a completely different fighter training at ATT, I will be ready until they close the cage

 
Hamstring is good, holding up well, did the physio, great training partners in Sweden, I'm used to performing under the lights, getting the KO, it's a must win for me, I've never gone to decision, I just have to let my hands go, I'm going to show him it's a different league up here, I'll stop when I'm 40, 2 more years, I want to win the belt, defend it once and retire, it's more mental for me, I have the physical

 
Ya'll mother fuckers are unhelpful. Where's the good discussion? Tried to get the ball rolling yesterday on a potential ITD bet against a guy in Dhiego Lima who blows over when a stiff breeze comes his way.

Seems like an easy bet to make at near evens, Laprise has a good gas tank and good hands + pop. We've seen him go to to the body when his A plan wasn't working to get a stoppage. Can't forget he was on a three fight stoppage streak until he ran into a super tight close range left hook from Luque. No shame in that, Luque has proven to be a very good fighter, and a finisher to boot. Lima on the other hand has been knocked out by a variety of fighters four times in the first round...
 
LiquidNuke said:
Ya'll mother fuckers are unhelpful. Where's the good discussion? Tried to get the ball rolling yesterday on a potential ITD bet against a guy in Dhiego Lima who blows over when a stiff breeze comes his way.

Seems like an easy bet to make at near evens, Laprise has a good gas tank and good hands + pop. We've seen him go to to the body when his A plan wasn't working to get a stoppage. Can't forget he was on a three fight stoppage streak until he ran into a super tight close range left hook from Luque. No shame in that, Luque has proven to be a very good fighter, and a finisher to boot. Lima on the other hand has been knocked out by a variety of fighters four times in the first round...
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Under 1½ and Laprise round 1 are better priced than Laprise KO. Most of Lapirse's KOs come in round 1 and most of Lima's KO losses are in round 1.
 
UFC gave me Clark, I said yes, he's a strong wrestler, I will be ready for him for sure, I have better movement and striker, I train with very good wrestlers at ATT and in my past in Dagestan, my wrestler trainer is from chechnya, I'm more well rounded than him, I'm ready for his wrestling, did last 6 weeks at ATT, one punch or one kick and I will have him, we've watched tape on Clark, maybe will be 50k, he'll push forward but he will feel my power, I will stop him in 2nd round

 
JimGunn said:
Under 1½ and Laprise round 1 are better priced than Laprise KO. Most of Lapirse's KOs come in round 1 and most of Lima's KO losses are in round 1.
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He took three to get into his groove against Camozzi... I was thinking of using him ITD as a leg of a parlay...
 
UFC 231 Press conference in 15 minutes:

 
LiquidNuke said:
Ya'll mother fuckers are unhelpful. Where's the good discussion?
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Not saying we're a bunch of Rogan's interviewing Rogan but damn man, 27 pages and counting, three days away from the fights, no less.
 
piglord said:
put half a unit on lopez at +225, seems to be the better fighter in every way except cardio.
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I looked up Katona and there’s nothing on him on YouTube. I missed it but looked at his UFC fight with Jay C and he looked at least composed in the stand up. Sticking and moving and he seemed well versed.

I def see value in taking Lopez who is the better wrestler, can create chaos in there, and very aggressive, but man it’s all a double edged sword no matter how you cut it with him (and Gaetjhe who he trains with).

I can see the new guy hitting the hittable Lopez and taking what Lopez gives him or Lopez getting shot out of a cannon and forcing his fight onto Katona. Lopez absolutely needs to have success grappling for him to win.

As far as current odds, I think Lopez should be a dog until he shows some sort of improvement in his energy expenditure because he has zero chill when it comes to pacing.
 
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