UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

[Soccer Steve]

With the obvious caveat, both pick Holloway. MacKenzie actually picks a late round finish preceded by Max "having a somewhat easy time of it right from the beginning (not verbatim but close enough)."

(Will edit later with their other picks/breakdowns, haven't finished it yet)

 

[DevilsPt2]

I looked up Katona and there’s nothing on him on YouTube. I missed it but looked at his UFC fight with Jay C and he looked at least composed in the stand up. Sticking and moving and he seemed well versed.

I def see value in taking Lopez who is the better wrestler, can create chaos in there, and very aggressive, but man it’s all a double edged sword no matter how you cut it with him (and Gaetjhe who he trains with).

I can see the new guy hitting the hittable Lopez and taking what Lopez gives him or Lopez getting shot out of a cannon and forcing his fight onto Katona. Lopez absolutely needs to have success grappling for him to win.

As far as current odds, I think Lopez should be a dog until he shows some sort of improvement in his energy expenditure because he has zero chill when it comes to pacing.

Pretty much exactly how I feel about this fight, esp the part about Lopez getting blasted out of a cannon in rd 1, Lopez needing to be successful with his wrestling, his wrestling being a double-edged sword since he aint got gas for that and Katonas poise standing. I feel Lopez has to have a great rd 1, probably will need to finish(prob only in rd 1, prob by SUB) and probably wont be able to hurt Katona striking. Katona prob runs away with it in rd2 and 3. I havent seen much of Katona though so I havent bet him or offered an opinion but as his price keeps getting better, I have to consider it.

Tried to get the ball rolling yesterday on a potential ITD bet against a guy in Dhiego Lima who blows over when a stiff breeze comes his way.

Seems like an easy bet to make at near evens, Laprise has a good gas tank and good hands + pop. We've seen him go to to the body when his A plan wasn't working to get a stoppage. Can't forget he was on a three fight stoppage streak until he ran into a super tight close range left hook from Luque. No shame in that, Luque has proven to be a very good fighter, and a finisher to boot. Lima on the other hand has been knocked out by a variety of fighters four times in the first round...

I think Laprise has been much more aggressive in hs approach to fghts since dropping that split to Pearson. He hates judges I'm sure, he knows Limas head is there for the beheading as well as anyone else. I feel very confident hes goin to beat Lima, more than I am he gets the KO so I just took his ML at -300. I'm sure a lot of folks here think thats too high though considering Laprise has his own red flags.

Full 5u on Ortega now

If Max looks great come weighins, I expect Ortega becomes a bigger dog. If he looks bad then Holloway may go dog.

Sorry for the Kyle style post lol.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

With the obvious caveat, both pick Holloway. MacKenzie actually picks a late round finish preceded by Max "having a somewhat easy time of it right from the beginning (not verbatim but close enough)."

(Will edit later with their other picks/breakdowns, haven't finished it yet)

Why do people like these guys so much, again? I've listened to a podcast of theirs after it was recommended by someone here.

They're okay analysts, don't get me wrong, but certainly nothing exceptional, and miss many crucial details and aspects of fighting. I would imagine any good, consistent MMA better is at least as good of an analyst as them, if not better.

Focus- After watching tape on Valentina, who I had only seen 1 fight from before, I've decided that Joanna, even at these odds, is a bit of fool's gold. This is a monumentally awful match-up for Joanna. (I can provide a more detailed analysis if anyone wants me to) The only question is whether there is value in betting on Valentina by decision (currently -110) or not.

 

[raketmannen]

Don't like at all how Max looked or sounded at the press conferance. Doubled up on my Ortega bet. Where you at Steve

 

[Soccer Steve]

Why do people like these guys so much, again? I've listened to a podcast of theirs after it was recommended by someone here.

They're okay analysts, don't get me wrong, but certainly nothing exceptional, and miss many crucial details and aspects of fighting. I would imagine any good, consistent MMA better is at least as good of an analyst as them, if not better.

Are they that popular? They make pretty good points. The one guy is a serial interrupter though, quite annoying.

 

[raketmannen]

Are they that popular? They make pretty good points. The one guy is a serial interrupter though, quite annoying.

In here they are pretty big on here at least. But how many MMA analysts are there really out there who breaks fights down in depth? MMA betting is small community.
Conor can be annoying and interrupts way to much, but he's pretty knowledgeable about striking at least and I think Phil McKenzie is really good

 

[Soccer Steve]

Don't like at all how Max looked or sounded at the press conferance. Doubled up on my Ortega bet. Where you at Steve

hahaha, honest, I saw your 5u post and logged in to 5d just to add 1 more to Max so I could come on here and say 5u Max. lol, no lie

 

[piglord]

I looked up Katona and there’s nothing on him on YouTube. I missed it but looked at his UFC fight with Jay C and he looked at least composed in the stand up. Sticking and moving and he seemed well versed.

I def see value in taking Lopez who is the better wrestler, can create chaos in there, and very aggressive, but man it’s all a double edged sword no matter how you cut it with him (and Gaetjhe who he trains with).

I can see the new guy hitting the hittable Lopez and taking what Lopez gives him or Lopez getting shot out of a cannon and forcing his fight onto Katona. Lopez absolutely needs to have success grappling for him to win.

As far as current odds, I think Lopez should be a dog until he shows some sort of improvement in his energy expenditure because he has zero chill when it comes to pacing.

yeah there are a lot of question marks on this fight but at +225 it seemed like an easy stab for half a unit.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Don't like at all how Max looked or sounded at the press conferance. Doubled up on my Ortega bet. Where you at Steve

But in all seriousness. Did you think Max seemed that bad? Cracking jokes, making an attempt at trash talk, said he was "good." But yeah, good thing he can fight because he'll never get anywhere on elocution, no doubt about it.
Something we haven't mentioned, and I suppose we haven't seen a reason to, but Ortega's cut must be a gruel too. He's a big fw.

 

[zeckdo]

But in all seriousness. Did you think Max seemed that bad? Cracking jokes, making an attempt at trash talk, said he was "good." But yeah, good thing he can fight because he'll never get anywhere on elocution, no doubt about it.
Something we haven't mentioned, and I suppose we haven't seen a reason to, but Ortega's cut must be a gruel too. He's a big fw.

he's always been a choppy talker, stutters a lot. He looked good to me, obviously much better than July. The whole pre fight appearance thing is smoke and mirrors. We just saw Calvillo barely able to stand on the scale and she went out the next night and dominated.

 

[Gugabe]

Why do people like these guys so much, again? I've listened to a podcast of theirs after it was recommended by someone here.

They're okay analysts, don't get me wrong, but certainly nothing exceptional, and miss many crucial details and aspects of fighting. I would imagine any good, consistent MMA better is at least as good of an analyst as them, if not better.

Focus- After watching tape on Valentina, who I had only seen 1 fight from before, I've decided that Joanna, even at these odds, is a bit of fool's gold. This is a monumentally awful match-up for Joanna. (I can provide a more detailed analysis if anyone wants me to) The only question is whether there is value in betting on Valentina by decision (currently -110) or not.

When Robin Black could create a following, the bar for a insightful MMA analyst show is fairly low. Hell, Jack Slack's got his major following and the dude prettymuch just wikicaps a lot of the time on his podcast if it's not a main event. Heavy Hands usually does pretty well from a technical POV, but usually you don't get a softball like this one to analyse. Holloway is the better striker by a wide margin, you probably won't see him ducking into the snapdown as a taller fighter, Ortega has had issues with body/leg-shots and moving laterally. The main question, if Holloway is healthy, is whether Ortega can fish something out his ass.

Honestly MMA analysis usually suffers from people digging too deep into fights and not realising there's a ton of chaos, and that unless somebody's had a lot of fights there's so much determined by context that trying to make deep analysis is stupid.

Anders does pressure the majority of the time, he's always the one moving forward, even for a lot of the Santos fight. Anders pressured Machida in their fight but he didn't throw enough strikes, it was a bad performance. Anders was the aggressor vs Willams but didn't really begin pouring on the heat until the 2nd round.

Other than the Machida fight and the 1st round vs Williams I like what I've seen vs Anders and I think he's performed well.

I also don't think Anders footwork is as bad as everyone says, yes it's a bit slow and stiff but he does a decent job of cutting off the cage.

No doubt Anders will be the one pressuring Theodorou. I expect Theodorou to use a lot of movment and throw a lot of kicks, I also think he might try to clinch and attempt TD's, he has the same sort of gameplan everyfight.

Anders should land the more damaging shots and his aggression will look good for the judges, I also think you might see Anders attempt TD's, he's a better athlete than Elias. Anders has good cardio too, I don't care if he gassed vs Santos on 6 days notice, Anders showed a lot of heart and even took Santos' back in the 3rd. Cardio looked good vs Perez and Williams.

Read a bunch of Anders interviews for this fight and he seems very aware of everything concerning this match up

“In all honesty, I don’t think that he’s as cerebral as anybody thinks he is,” Anders said. “I think he’s just random and throws random, goofy stuff, striking-wise. He doesn’t really set anything up. He’s just kind of mashing buttons, if you will.

“I don’t think he brings anything that I haven’t seen before. I definitely feel like I’m better everywhere. On the ground, if I should end up on my back, I’m more than confident I’ll be able to get up or sweep him. If I get on top, I’m more than confident I could finish him with some ground and pound.”

“Just watching films, there are fights that he’s had in Toronto in the same arena that he possibly could’ve lost, but I think that fighting somebody else’s hometown is starting a point down,” he said. “I’ve definitely got some making up to do so I’m coming at him with a lot of volume.”

“I feel great. My cardio is great. I feel good and feel sharper. My timing is on. Things are going very well.”

He got beat retarded 10 weeks ago, is coming off what should be a short camp (I'd be shocked if it didn't take him a few weeks to recover from that Santos fustigation), Anders hasn't shown particularly good control, GnP or submissions. I remember Anders saying that the key to beating Machida would be to close distance, which he then proceeded to not do.

I'm all for watching interviews to get a read for confidence/health-levels, but everybody's got a plan till they get punched in the mouth.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

yeah there are a lot of question marks on this fight but at +225 it seemed like an easy stab for half a unit.

Ain’t shit wrong with taking that line sir. Most fights are 50/50 and even when juiced favs win, doesn’t mean they were ever worth the price.

I always feel like he/she who is the better grappler on paper should be the favorite in — most cases.

 

[theTKDguy]

For anyone that can translate

rakic reminds me of rico verhoeven. that means he'll win

 

[Card]

I'm confident in my abilities, it's all about me

 

[Card]

(just talks about TUF and SBG)

 

[Soccer Steve]

With the obvious caveat, both pick Holloway. MacKenzie actually picks a late round finish preceded by Max "having a somewhat easy time of it right from the beginning (not verbatim but close enough)."

(Will edit later with their other picks/breakdowns, haven't finished it yet)

-Phil picks Sheva. Reubusch giggles throughout. Both bring up the MT fight quite a bit, then they declare it basically irrelevant, but then they go back to it again. They discuss how JJ can win and her path is clear but that Sheva is too hulkish for her. Their point about Sheva's history of being very aggressive against girls her own size was interesting/worrying as a JJ backer. Busch more forgiving of the size diff. and appears to lean JJ but never declares outright.

-Phil picks Nelson Rd 1. Busch agrees. Not to say Cowboy can't do it, and they like him, but they think Nelson snipes him quick.

-Both pick Santos pretty emphatically.

-Both want to fade Gadelha's fade, "process-less, aimlessness" all of it worrying....and then they both pick Gadelha, with "no confidence at all." Basically Ansaroff's lack of TDD pushes it for them, that she'll probably give away rounds underneath Claudia

 

[MMAOracle]

Full 5u on Ortega now

Ya got me raket. I hedged holloway with ortega parlay. But i win more if holloway wins.

 

[Card]

I would have rather fight sooner, the offered me the Renan fight in Brazil but I turned it down, so they put me on the side lines for a while, last fight I was so stubborn, I should have pulled out of that fight, I'm here to spoil the party, I have the experience advantage, I spar with Elevation now, since Wittman has his own place now, training with Cory Sandhagen, I will come at him, he's not the better grappler, and I'm been wokring alot on my hands

 

[ViolenceFight]

Don't like at all how Max looked or sounded at the press conferance. Doubled up on my Ortega bet. Where you at Steve

Ditto, I doubled my Ortega position & considering more. Max still sounding bad at the recent press conference, interviews & embedded. If Max makes it to the ring, I think Ortega definitely takes this fight.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Not saying we're a bunch of Rogan's interviewing Rogan but damn man, 27 pages and counting, three days away from the fights, no less.

And what percentage of those 27 pages are people speculating at the state of Max's health? Legitimately 60+ percent?

Sorry, I've seen plenty of threads full of good information that can help your own game out on here before, this definitely hasn't been one of those threads.