Pettis vs Diaz - Easy night for Nate? Is Pettis going in too deep too fast?

[RustyShacleford]

I think Nate is being favoured because Pettis rarely wins without getting the finish, and Nate is very tough to finish. So it is likely that while he is waiting for a finish opportunity that won't come, Nate is gonna be piling up 1-2 combos. But, if Pettis takes the leg kicks and lateral movement approach, his odds greatly increase.

 

[grimballer]

Nate’s overrated after his battles with Conor.

Those fights say more about Conor than they do about Nate.

He’s always been a gatekeeper with limited power n doesn’t check kicks.

He also didn’t fight after that Conor fight 3 years ago

Pettis should get this one easy

 

[Herwald]

Yeah, that's what I mean, that's why I mentioned I'm not comparing Wonderboy to Nate (that would be silly if I did) but more so the fact people were writing Pettis off so much in that Wonderboy fight and he won.

I wrote a comment on the FB page about that and my notifications went mad from people telling me I didn't know what I was on about, I have no clue about MMA and Pettis has Zero chance to beat Wonderboy etc... all because I said "I think Pettis can win you know" as it was full of comments of people saying Wonderboy has got this easy. I ended up deleting the comment cause I was sick of the notifications and then Pettis won the fight.

I should have kept it there but I'm not really the kind who likes to say "Told you so" anyway but you get my point.

I get the point. For whatever it's worth, I think Wonderboy would beat Nate fairly easily and my only real hesitation picking against Pettis is that he's a champ. He is a winner. Won both UFC and WEC belts, even won & defended that Gateway Fighting Series title. He's not a martyr like Nate who goes halfway and settles on moral victories, he has actually gone the distance.

But Nate's just a tricky guy. Plus, we just saw Dad Cerrone go 3-0 and this will be Dad Nate's first fight - he might come in more focused and motivated than ever before.

 

[Lawrence]

Not too deep... Nate is a step down for Pettis even now at 170... It's impossible to dispute this really.

Pettis is rightly favored now... -135 today so that might be even money on fight night.. Who knows.

Rooting for Nate and a bloodbath.

209 Bitches

 

[GSP Rush]

I think Nate is being favoured because Pettis rarely wins without getting the finish, and Nate is very tough to finish. So it is likely that while he is waiting for a finish opportunity that won't come, Nate is gonna be piling up 1-2 combos. But, if Pettis takes the leg kicks and lateral movement approach, his odds greatly increase.

That's a good interesting thing you mention there, maybe so in regards to this but there's so many reasons to favour Pettis too ain't they

Nate’s overrated after his battles with Conor.

Those fights say more about Conor than they do about Nate.

He’s always been a gatekeeper with limited power n doesn’t check kicks.

He also didn’t fight after that Conor fight 3 years ago

Pettis should get this one easy

It'll be interesting to see how Nate does after not being back for so long after that fight, that's where the big question mark is I think.

 

[Huligani]

Easy fight for Pettis. Nate can't cut people off so Pettis will be free to move around and throw his entire arsenal. Josh Thomson's headkick was too much for Diaz, now imagine Pettis who is now a fierce leg kicker as well.

 

[GSP Rush]

Not too deep... Nate is a step down for Pettis even now at 170... It's impossible to dispute this really.

Pettis is rightly favored now... -135 today so that might be even money on fight night.. Who knows.

Rooting for Nate and a bloodbath.

209 Bitches

I don't really understand odd's too much as I don't bet however looking on this here just now they seem to be even.

Nate Diaz -115
Anthony Pettis -115

Again, I don't fully understand odd's and I know they can change as the fight gets closer too but it'll be interesting to see which corner each fighter are in on the night.

This is the link for what I just saw: https://www.oddsshark.com/ufc/ufc-diaz-vs-pettis-odds-analysis

 

[Franklin U.]

Ok so I've just seen a couple of people say Pettis is going in too deep too fast, the same thing they said with Wonderboy yet Pettis said he wanted to take the hardest fight for his WW debut and he won.

I can understand completely when you get someone like Nate it's pretty easy to favour Nate however can Pettis beat him and what are the chances of this?

I remember the Wonderboy fight and majority was saying there's no way Pettis could beat him yet he did. I do feel Pettis is sometimes written off, of course I'm not comparing Nate to Wonderboy by any means but my point is Pettis seems to get written off quite often and he has proven against the odds.

They're fighting at Welterweight too I believe so a couple of things to consider.

• Pettis has just moved to WW with one win, Diaz has a 2-3 record at the weight.

• Diaz last fight was August 2016 with Conor (decision loss).

Of course the above doesn't mean or guarantee anything but it's something to take on board at least.

So what do you guys think, what are the odd's that Pettis can beat Diaz or do you think this is something Diaz can walk away with?

I'd love to hear what you guys think

--------------

PS On other news the new Rocko's Modern Life was released on Netflix today after being stuck on the shelf for 3 years at Nickelodeon, Netflix saved it and it's awesome.



See this thread here: https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/...-life-special-on-netflix-its-awesome.3997063/

Sponge - respectfully, you're a little off on this analysis and ironically I'm leaning towards Nate but for different reasons.

Putting Conor fight aside( and these were 2 lightweights meeting at 170 and I don't know how many fights Conor was removed from 145), Nate has been mollywhopped by every top 155er( at the time they fought). There are so many questions going into this fight. Pettis looks good at 170 as long as he can sustain his size and density. Pettis is favored and probably should be based on recent history and Nate hasnt fought in awhile. WB was beating Pettis until he lost and if WB and Nate were fighting, WB would be ,at least, a mild to healthy favorite. The biggest wild card in this fight is that Nate has physically grown into a welterweight and it " appears " that hes taken this camp serious and is in tremendous shape...... the opening betting line which is close to where it is now tells a story. If this fight was at 155 not that long ago, Anthony would be a healthy favorite ( for reasons stated at beginning of post). A lot of the pro fighters are picking Pettis due to Nates inactivity which is always a good sign to go the other way in a situation like this. When you have a fight that's basically in the PK em area and most are going one way- always a good sign to go the other way.

I thought under the circumstances that Pettis wouldve opened a bigger favorite than he did and is now ....... and that's why I kind of like Nate here.

Really looking forward to this one and Nate has really filled out physically and appears to be in fight shape. It's such a wild card that the betting odds are where they are.I have feeling we're going to see a good version of Nate at 170 .....regardless " the cage rust". They both bust open easy now in their careers as their integrity of scar tissue has been effected so I'm expecting a pretty stained canvas after fight unless there is a quick finish.

 

[C0NCH3TO]

This isnt a gimme fight for neither of these guys. Anyone can win.

Personally, i cant pick a winner here. Pettis is extremely inconsistent and Nate is coming off a long layoff.

 

[GSP Rush]

I get the point. For whatever it's worth, I think Wonderboy would beat Nate fairly easily and my only real hesitation picking against Pettis is that he's a champ. He is a winner. Won both UFC and WEC belts, even won & defended that Gateway Fighting Series title. He's not a martyr like Nate who goes halfway and settles on moral victories, he has actually gone the distance.

But Nate's just a tricky guy. Plus, we just saw Dad Cerrone go 3-0 and this will be Dad Nate's first fight - he might come in more focused and motivated than ever before.

Yeah, there is a lot of things that can sway what you feel ain't they, this is why I'm kinda torn.

I kinda think Nate but then again I don't at all, I think it's because Nate's been out so long to be honest and I wonder if his motivation to win will be bigger after his loss or not, I don't know cause on the flip side there's so many reasons why I think Pettis has got the favour here.

 

[ApplesVild]

From what I've seen everyone is picking Pettis because leg kicks?

 

[-Magua-]

They both mainly 55ers or small welters.
50/50... leaning toward Pettis.

I think he can deal with Nate’s pressure and fight him similar to thompson.

Not fighting/inertia is real. I also think Anthony has more mojo from last few performances and momentum.

 

[beefcake180]

Nate possesses that relentlessness that Max, Tony and LW Doostin has, that Wonderboy doesn't really with his more point fighting type of style, so that's why it seems like a tougher fight for Pettis. But they're both so uneven and unpredictable - it's hard to call. Right now I'm leaning towards Nate cause of the ground game, volume and endurance.

Nate's feet aren't anywhere near as intelligent or mobile as those 3 fighters you mentioned. If he gets guys cornered, yeah his pressure is similar to those 3, but he has a harder time implementing that pressure because he's slower and has a harder time working guys into those positions.

 

[mortal]

I'm going with Nate but I don't consider it a walk in the park.

In a fight (always mma-related), Pettis is good in striking but also on the ground. His striking is versatile which is a big plus.
He doesn't even have to fight though. The judging is abussmal and you get a decision W with dancing, running etc. So, if he chooses to take that route, he has that going for him as well.

It's just that people still remember Pettis quiting against Tony and he's facing now someone who simply won't quit. Especially if the fight is 5 rounds.

Btw, do we know if it's gonna be 3 or 5 rounds?

Edit: I wasn't clear with "especially if the fight is 5 rounds". I meant people will lean even more towards Nate in a five-rounder.

 

[cheat toes]

should be good fight

 

[GSP Rush]

Sponge - respectfully, you're a little off on this analysis and ironically I'm leaning towards Nate but for different reasons.

Putting Conor fight aside( and these were 2 lightweights meeting at 170 and I don't know how many fights Conor was removed from 145), Nate has been mollywhopped by every top 155er( at the time they fought). There are so many questions going into this fight. Pettis looks good at 170 as long as he can sustain his size and density. Pettis is favored and probably should be based on recent history and Nate hasnt fought in awhile. WB was beating Pettis until he lost and if WB and Nate were fighting, WB would be ,at least, a mild to healthy favorite. The biggest wild card in this fight is that Nate has physically grown into a welterweight and it " appears " that hes taken this camp serious and is in tremendous shape...... the opening betting line which is close to where it is now tells a story. If this fight was at 155 not that long ago, Anthony would be a healthy favorite ( for reasons stated at beginning of post). A lot of the pro fighters are picking Pettis due to Nates inactivity which is always a good sign to go the other way in a situation like this. When you have a fight that's basically in the PK em area and most are going one way- always a good sign to go the other way.

I thought under the circumstances that Pettis wouldve opened a bigger favorite than he did and is now ....... and that's why I kind of like Nate here.

Really looking forward to this one and Nate has really filled out physically and appears to be in fight shape. It's such a wild card that the betting odds are where they are.I have feeling we're going to see a good version of Nate at 170 .....regardless " the cage rust". They both bust open easy now in their careers as their integrity of scar tissue has been effected so I'm expecting a pretty stained canvas after fight unless there is a quick finish.

Dude, that's completely fine, it's all about discussion and debate so it's all good (plus, I'm not always right haha).

The bullet points I mentioned though aren't exactly to explain who I favour in the fight (I'm actually quite torn if I'm really honest) but more so some things that come to mind to take on board, it's very back and forth however you look at it and the different things you can bring into play which is also what makes this fight interesting.

I think the big question for me is how will Nate be after so long out, I really do not know, I mean will he want to win even more so than ever due to his last loss too, I dunno. You're right about the weight class thing with Conor but it's more in regards to the loss as opposed to the weight if you get what I mean

I've seen a few people favouring Nate and also the odd's I looked at above (admittedly I don't understand them fully) are evenly matched but again, I have no clue about that to be honest as I'm not a betting person, I'm just seeing people say the same again about Pettis they did in the Wonderboy fight which baffles me how he gets written off by people sometimes so easily (I don't mean you of course as I know you're not doing this!)

It is really interesting though, to be honest, I'm quite torn and it's not often I am when it comes to up and coming fights even though as I say I'm not always right ans far from it but that's the unpredictability and what's so good about MMA

I agree about the canvas, I think there's definitely going to be some cleaning up to do haha

It's gonna be a good fight

 

[TheLexusMan]

I believe that Anthony Pettis will win a unanimous decision.

 

[GSP Rush]

This isnt a gimme fight for neither of these guys. Anyone can win.

Personally, i cant pick a winner here. Pettis is extremely inconsistent and Nate is coming off a long layoff.

That's what I love about MMA in general, no matter how much we debate we can never guarantee and that's what makes it great but I'm pretty much the same as you, I'm quite torn.

From what I've seen everyone is picking Pettis because leg kicks?

It's definitely more favourable here for sure.

 

[MakeSherdogGreatAgain]

Nate's boxing skills and cardio are his big advantages. Pettis is so hot and cold. If Nate can pressure Pettis and back him up, he's got this. If he gives Pettis space to throw kicks and wild shit, he might get flash tko'd.

 

[Lawrence]

I don't really understand odd's too much as I don't bet however looking on this here just now they seem to be even.

Nate Diaz -115
Anthony Pettis -115

Again, I don't fully understand odd's and I know they can change as the fight gets closer too but it'll be interesting to see which corner each fighter are in on the night.

This is the link for what I just saw: https://www.oddsshark.com/ufc/ufc-diaz-vs-pettis-odds-analysis

I saw one this morning that had Pettis at -135

I'm surprised about Even money...

Nate has been the underdog in every fight for years... But has beaten the odds a few times for sure... He was like +350 or something against Michael Johnson...