Bellator 237 Japan Fedor vs Rampage

Dathorn said:
I never take breaks from anything! Once i do something, I do it for the rest of my life!

What a dumb statement.
Click to expand...

I was obviously talking about MMA gambling, smartass. Speaking of "dumb", nice bet on Rampage tonight!

Kamais_Ookin said:
Additionally, while most of our brains shut off due to an obsession of a + number next to Rampage's name and other foolish reasons, I applaud the likes of @ill800 who mentioned the massive speed differential between the 2 fighters and the fact that although everyone was salivating over Rampage's 3 buffets a day durability, this was the first true heavyweight he was facing and there is a true power that comes with it as we saw with the fat fuck face planting to the floor and blood oozing out. Also @PolarBearPaulVarelans who astutely argued Fedor's attribute of being a high IQ fighter with some of the best decision makings in the game.
Click to expand...

Thanks, although "fight IQ" wasn't even a factor in the complete breakdown of Fedor-Rampage I wrote to ill800 and a few others in the past week or so.

Since Jordie, Steve, and Gugabe have already lost their money (and as a bonus, new Jordie fanboy Dathorn has, too), I can now safely post my analysis publicly without worrying about making them any bank;

"I've rewatched Rampage's last 3 fights, and man, I'm more down on him than ever.

The guy is brutally slow, his footwork is laughable, his cardio is lousy, his defense is dreadful, his bottom game is straight out of 2001, his offensive wrestling kind of sucks, his takedown defense has significantly atrophied, and I'm not sure his chin is all that good either, as Wanderlei was noticeably stunning him.

What does Rampage have left? He can still throw decent, technical punches. He still has power in the right hand, and his right hook and overhand right are both weapons. The left hook is competent too, technically about as good as the right one, only slower and weaker.

Is that enough to beat Fedor? I really don't know. Firstly, his right hand isn't as hard as Bader's unorthodox left hook/casting punch or Mittrione's straight right, the two blows that beat Fedor last. Wanderlei, whose chin is utterly gone, weathered a number of rights until the very last one, which was a flush, completely undefended, full power shot. Hell, Wanderlei, Lawal, and even Sonnen all had varying degrees of shot chins, and Rampage was only able to knock out Wanderlei after multiple hard connects. And this wasn't for lack of connects against Lawal and Sonnen, either.

More importantly, it's very hard for Rampage to land that punch. He doesn't set it up with anything, and plods forward with his dreadful footwork, winging lead power punches. He is extremely vulnerable to even a little movement. Chael's mediocre footwork and Wanderlei's poor footwork while circling into the power were both enough to evade him for long portions of the fight, and it took the perfect circumstances, Wanderlei in a stupid crouched position against the fence, completely exhausted, completely exposed, and with zero reactions to Rampage's obvious blow for him to win.

On the flipside, Rampage's defense is just horrendous. Not only was Chael repeatedly hitting him, but Wanderlei's awful, technically flawed front kick, a strike he had never attempted before and obviously didn't know how to throw properly, was connecting with Rampage's face any time he threw it. We could very easily see Fedor bomb him out with punches.

Bullshit "he recomped and added 2 pounds of muscle a week" quotes from his coach aside, Rampage likely coming in at 260 considering how dreadful he looked at 250 is even more of a bad sign. Fedor could even throw Rampage in the clinch considering how easily Chael kept hitting him with inside trips, and Fedor's judo base. That's also bad considering how awful Rampage is off his back.

Maybe Rampage lands a blow, but I think it's more likely Fedor lands his first. I'll bet on power, speed, and skill over the advantage of a mediocre chin over a glass one.

On the flipside, it's a little hard to be confident about 43 year-old guys relying on their striking with glass chins, even if it's someone as great as Fedor.

So I'm in for 0.5u at -130."
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
Yeah those Rampage bettors really need to stop making excuses in this thread and show some humility, it was one of the most retarded picks of the year to close out 2019. I say this as a Rampage bettor myself btw, but I'm not as deluded as the fighter I picked and there's no defending it. Seeing posts like "the fight was fixed" is very embarrassing.

For a long time we've had the info in front of our eyes leading up to this fight that Rampage is going in as a fat fuck and day dreaming about returning to his 205lb glory days after beating Fedor, and thus overlooking him. But at the same time idolized Fedor and acted like he doesn't care if he wins.

Additionally, while most of our brains shut off due to an obsession of a + number next to Rampage's name and other foolish reasons, I applaud the likes of @ill800 who mentioned the massive speed differential between the 2 fighters and the fact that although everyone was salivating over Rampage's 3 buffets a day durability, this was the first true heavyweight he was facing and there is a true power that comes with it as we saw with the fat fuck face planting to the floor and blood oozing out. Also @PolarBearPaulVarelans who astutely argued Fedor's attribute of being a high IQ fighter with some of the best decision makings in the game. The distance management confused Rampage, he turtled planning to counter in the pocket but Fedor was long gone by then, and at distance it was a 20:1 strike ratio for Fedor. FFS Rampage was already gassed just walking down the ramp to the cage! I bet 1u on Rampage and am mortified to the point of logging out to hide while you guys are out here multi units (and even max betting wtf?!) Rampage and appear to have no shame, it's just so bizarre.

Anyways hopefully this loss leads to more logical decisions makings with bets in the new year for all of us starting with the McGregor card. We must strive to be intelligent like Fedor and not act like the man-child that Rampage is. Enjoy the rest of the holidays all!
Click to expand...
Great breakdown man.
On to 246... please talk me out of emptying my 401k on Mcgregor I think the whiskey is stronger than the bud beer here.
Tempted to make a dumb decision on a drunk Irishman over a skilled ranch hand.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
I was obviously talking about MMA gambling, smartass. Speaking of "dumb", nice bet on Rampage tonight!



Thanks, although "fight IQ" wasn't even a factor in the complete breakdown of Fedor-Rampage I wrote to ill800 and a few others in the past week or so.

Since Jordie, Steve, and Gugabe have already lost their money (and as a bonus, new Jordie fanboy Dathorn has, too), I can now safely post my analysis publicly without worrying about making them any bank;

"I've rewatched Rampage's last 3 fights, and man, I'm more down on him than ever.

The guy is brutally slow, his footwork is laughable, his cardio is lousy, his defense is dreadful, his bottom game is straight out of 2001, his offensive wrestling kind of sucks, his takedown defense has significantly atrophied, and I'm not sure his chin is all that good either, as Wanderlei was noticeably stunning him.

What does Rampage have left? He can still throw decent, technical punches. He still has power in the right hand, and his right hook and overhand right are both weapons. The left hook is competent too, technically about as good as the right one, only slower and weaker.

Is that enough to beat Fedor? I really don't know. Firstly, his right hand isn't as hard as Bader's unorthodox left hook/casting punch or Mittrione's straight right, the two blows that beat Fedor last. Wanderlei, whose chin is utterly gone, weathered a number of rights until the very last one, which was a flush, completely undefended, full power shot. Hell, Wanderlei, Lawal, and even Sonnen all had varying degrees of shot chins, and Rampage was only able to knock out Wanderlei after multiple hard connects. And this wasn't for lack of connects against Lawal and Sonnen, either.

More importantly, it's very hard for Rampage to land that punch. He doesn't set it up with anything, and plods forward with his dreadful footwork, winging lead power punches. He is extremely vulnerable to even a little movement. Chael's mediocre footwork and Wanderlei's poor footwork while circling into the power were both enough to evade him for long portions of the fight, and it took the perfect circumstances, Wanderlei in a stupid crouched position against the fence, completely exhausted, completely exposed, and with zero reactions to Rampage's obvious blow for him to win.

On the flipside, Rampage's defense is just horrendous. Not only was Chael repeatedly hitting him, but Wanderlei's awful, technically flawed front kick, a strike he had never attempted before and obviously didn't know how to throw properly, was connecting with Rampage's face any time he threw it. We could very easily see Fedor bomb him out with punches.

Bullshit "he recomped and added 2 pounds of muscle a week" quotes from his coach aside, Rampage likely coming in at 260 considering how dreadful he looked at 250 is even more of a bad sign. Fedor could even throw Rampage in the clinch considering how easily Chael kept hitting him with inside trips, and Fedor's judo base. That's also bad considering how awful Rampage is off his back.

Maybe Rampage lands a blow, but I think it's more likely Fedor lands his first. I'll bet on power, speed, and skill over the advantage of a mediocre chin over a glass one.

On the flipside, it's a little hard to be confident about 43 year-old guys relying on their striking with glass chins, even if it's someone as great as Fedor.

So I'm in for 0.5u at -130."
Click to expand...
Good stuff man and congrats on the win tonight. I'm not sure how you reached the conclusion of Dathorn being Jordie's cheerleader or w/e though lol. He's his own guy and an honest forthcoming one at that, one of the more enjoyable posters definitely and able to bet in various other domains besides mma pretty well, something I'm sure you could respect. Anyways there's too much toxicity building up around here so lets just move on and enjoy the rest of the holidays before returning back to the grind to beat the bookies!
 
Last edited:
Sono07 said:
Great breakdown man.
On to 246... please talk me out of emptying my 401k on Mcgregor I think the whiskey is stronger than the bud beer here.
Tempted to make a dumb decision on a drunk Irishman over a skilled ranch hand.
Click to expand...
If we're talking McGregor's irish whiskey piss concoction your bud beer might have it beat man lol. I don't like how his ITD line is about -200, I've seen hard hitting heavyweights with better numbers. Like it's just really juiced to me even though I think it happens. I was thinking maybe go with u1.5 rounds and live bet from there if it's not already over. Card is a month away though havn't delved too deep yet might change mind later.
 
Books won massively on Fedor. Crazy with how nostalgic MMA fans are that not many were on Fedor. When I read that media story saying Rampage had gained 26 pounds of muscle I had to fade the hype and grab Fedor at his improved odds.

Had Rampage been in decent shape I too would have played him at above +150.
 
People are missing the point of this thread, its to help each other make smart decisions and money, not to swing dicks. I made some of my biggest profits this year due to posters like JimGun letting me on to bets I would have otherwise missed.

I hope I was able to talk at least a couple of people out of the Rampage line, everyone was so focused on Fedor's chin that they failed to realise just how bad Rampage has become.

£50 Outlaw 11/4 -£50
£100 Fedor 8/11 +£72.72
£100 Fedor 4/5 +£80

Profit: £102.72
 
Last edited:
Went 6/6 on this one. The heavy favorites seemed juiced, but I don't think that was really the case. Chandler's line got very playable, I have a hard time seeing Yamauichi lose to Cruikshank if they fought multiple times, and MVP fight was lol. I'm glad I looked into Fedor/Rampage more. I probably would have been tempted by Rampage's early line, but I think it was a trap. He really hasn't had shit for offense lately. His best hope is for him to crack Fedor's chin early and he hasn't cracked anyone's chin early for 5+ years.
 
Oblivian said:
Went 6/6 on this one. The heavy favorites seemed juiced, but I don't think that was really the case. Chandler's line got very playable, I have a hard time seeing Yamauichi lose to Cruikshank if they fought multiple times, and MVP fight was lol. I'm glad I looked into Fedor/Rampage more. I probably would have been tempted by Rampage's early line, but I think it was a trap. He really hasn't had shit for offense lately. His best hope is for him to crack Fedor's chin early and he hasn't cracked anyone's chin early for 5+ years.
Click to expand...

Not really the best card to be proud of going 6/6 with huge to medium sized favourites to be fair.
 
Red_2 said:
Not really the best card to be proud of going 6/6 with huge to medium sized favourites to be fair.
Click to expand...

A lot of respectable posters here where betting on the dogs, especially Outlaw and Rampage, so good on him to stick to his guns.
 
Red_2 said:
Not really the best card to be proud of going 6/6 with huge to medium sized favourites to be fair.
Click to expand...

Well obviously there were heavy favs there, but I think every play had value. I've gone 100% on other cards where I don't think the plays had value in retrospect. I'm not a guy who normally likes playing big favorites. I think a lot of us, myself included, are scared to play medium/heavy favs assuming they rarely have value. We chase dogs or look for props when we see medium/big favs, but sometimes the money line is worth it. I have a hard time seeing Cruikshank winning that fight more than 1/10 times honestly. He's toast once it hits the ground, and Goiti is pretty intelligent on fighting on the outside and then getting in. Cruik had to land something big which can happen, but I think it was very low %. I would have been tempted with Outlaw with his number prior to the Huerta fight, but that fight even showed more holes with Outlaw in what was already a bad stylistic matchup vs. Chandler. Chandler getting down to the -300 range had value. Similar to Cruikshank, Outlaw needed something big to happen and probably early. MVP would have had to twist an ankle to lose that fight. Larkin/Nak was just a horrible matchup too. I'll gladly play those favs and feel comfortable rather than trying to find a prop like the over/under.
 
benebox said:
A lot of respectable posters here where betting on the dogs, especially Outlaw and Rampage, so good on him to stick to his guns.
Click to expand...

Avoided the circle jerk on those. I haven't been playing lines early lately, but I may have actually bit on Rampage then. Leading up to the fight without really thinking about it, I had it around a coin flip. The more that I thought about Rampage's lack of offense lately and him becoming a total lard, I started favoring Fedor quite a bit. Glad for the line movement.
 
Sono07 said:
Great breakdown man.
On to 246... please talk me out of emptying my 401k on Mcgregor I think the whiskey is stronger than the bud beer here.
Tempted to make a dumb decision on a drunk Irishman over a skilled ranch hand.
Click to expand...
Connor hasn't fought in a year. Lost to Nurgy, Prior to that didn't fight for 2y. Cowboy has questionable striking defense, and is running against father time. With all the questions this is a bad bet from either side.

Connor is also supposedly an alcoholic, and abuses drugs...but his skills are super legit. Might look like a good bet, and there is a good chance of it panning out..but for Cowboy this is his golden ticket. You know he has to be training like mad with his love of money burning an imaginary future hole in his pocket.
 
grndzro said:
Connor hasn't fought in a year. Lost to Nurgy, Prior to that didn't fight for 2y. Cowboy has questionable striking defense, and is running against father time. With all the questions this is a bad bet from either side.

Connor is also supposedly an alcoholic, and abuses drugs...but his skills are super legit. Might look like a good bet, and there is a good chance of it panning out..but for Cowboy this is his golden ticket. You know he has to be training like mad with his love of money burning an imaginary future hole in his pocket.
Click to expand...
Agreed on alot of this, hoping father time helps beat Cerrone here. I will say that his show bonus will probably be bigger than most if any wins he has had.
Win or lose Cowboy gets paid well and I respect that. Mcgregor has question marks and loses sure but between Mayweather and Khabib he has done well against some of the best. Thanks for the voice of reason Connor the poster boy may look less like a golden goose more like a lame duck.
 


16C5B054-92FB-4F5F-9341-7A1F4FF24A00.jpeg

People standing on pedestals wagging their fingers at others who call bullshit on what is clearly bullshit should use their eyes.

Whether it was fatness or money or a flat out dive, the outcome of this fight was determined before a punch was thrown. Or in rampages case, before no punch wasn’t thrown.
 
Soccer Steve said:


View attachment 701447

People standing on pedestals wagging their fingers at others who call bullshit on what is clearly bullshit should use their eyes.

Whether it was fatness or money or a flat out dive, the outcome of this fight was determined before a punch was thrown. Or in rampages case, before no punch wasn’t thrown.
Click to expand...


Disagree
 
ill800 said:
Disagree
Click to expand...
Rampage quote after the fight
"I ain’t mad, though. You win some, you lose some. You get paid for all. Y’all remember that"
He was def there for a paycheck pretty much verballly tapping as he fell to the ground
 
Cockadoodle said:
Rampage quote after the fight
"I ain’t mad, though. You win some, you lose some. You get paid for all. Y’all remember that"
He was def there for a paycheck pretty much verballly tapping as he fell to the ground
Click to expand...
The fight wasn’t fixed. If people max bet rampage, like some members implied, then they deserved what they got

Rampage has been solely fighting for a paycheck most of his career.

I don’t know why this is so shocking. He’s looked pretty horrible for years. You knew he was coming in at the heavyweight limit. You knew he was fat as hell and his camp was lying about his training. But hey, let’s max bet rampage at +110
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,238,482
Messages
55,562,743
Members
174,822
Latest member
celticfrost

Share this page

Back
Top