UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

Wiktoruspro said:
Guys sure Rozenstriuk can lose by ko, Francis has monster power. But when some of you bet bums like Alvey because of plus number than why not to take stab of Rozenstriuk, great risk/odds.
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+250 point spread is a good bet against a guy who will just take rounds off
 
TheFightGame said:
I can't really recall Pettis old fights where he quit but when I think about the pettis vs Ferguson and pettis vs Diaz fights I saw a guy who was willing to weather the storm and show a lot of fight, something Cerrone has shown the complete opposite of.

The question is will pettis tko cerrone or beat him decisively to a decision.
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For the record I like Pettis to beat Cowboy too, but he actually quit against Tony on the stool after rd 2. He took a hell of a beating over the second half of that round, then told his corner he broke his hand. Turns out he didn't, he just wanted out of that fight. Watching the last 2 minutes of rd 2 though, kinda hard to blame him. He was getting mauled. The other one was the rib injury vs Poirier where he lost by body triangle.
 
TrueAscension said:
I like the odds on Watterson submission, she almost had one locked up against JJ a couple times and that’s JJ.
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It'll probably have to be a tight RNC. I thought Grasso was going to break her arm in that last fight and Carla still got out of the position.
 
Holy shit Stephens definitely isn't taking weight cutting advice from Ferguson. Medium-sized Heathen going to try and wrestlefat Kattar?
 
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Danis_champ said:
dude get sober

you say a lot of weird things but this is literally the most retarded thing you have said in recent memory

seems like there is lots of wishful thinking going on with Rozenstruik. Reem was on his way to beating him 50-45, AA is chinny as fuck and Albini out struck Jair early plus mounted him and had in all sorts of trouble. Francis will finish this dude ITD.
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This post is hilarious. You call out someone else for being retarded for an exaggeration, but then proceed to write even worse exaggeration and flat-out nonsense about Rozenstruik's recent fights.

1. Overeem clearly won rounds 1 and 3 against Rozenstruik, but Rozenstruik clearly won round 4. 2 was very close. Moreover, I had Rozenstruik winning round 5 even before the KO. Now, Overeem would have won 3-2 on my scorecard if it had gone the distance, but claiming it was 4-0 just because of the three blind mice at ringside or would have been 5-0 is asinine for anyone closely watching the fight.

2. Albini never "out struck Jair". After taking Rozenstruik's back and almost submitting him, he used his opponent's fear of the takedown to land a patented looping right...which Rozenstruik swallowed and didn't even flinch from. That was his only major stand-up strike of the fight. However, he was not ever displaying a systematic advantage in striking exchanges.

3. Arlovski's chin might be bad, but his hyper-safe form of fighting allowed him to go the distance against heavy hitters like Walt Harris and Tai Tuivasa. Portraying the knockout as no big deal is nonsensical when the last time Arlovski was knocked out was 9 fights and almost 3 years ago...against N'Gannou. Nevermind the many people on here gleefully betting the hell out of the former champion.
 
rille31 said:
His ml is +230
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Wouldn't the points spread be better because he could lose a decision and still win the bet?
*Edit Nevermind I read your post wrong. I'm only seeing +165 for his points line
 
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theTKDguy said:
Oleinik worth a stab?
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Maybe a Oleinik 1st rd KO +2000 seeing that he has about 1 rd of cardio and Werdum may have some serious ring rust coming into that 1st rd. Probably won't happen though
 
theTKDguy said:
Oleinik worth a stab?
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Werdum is a bad matchup BUT he didnt look Great at weigh ins, some red flags around him too.
Oleynik on The other hand looked good and is motivated because of financial problems.

Oleynik is worth a stab
 
Oleynik likes to go for takedowns

Any chance he takedowns doom and survives in his guard?
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Werdum is a bad matchup BUT he didnt look Great at weigh ins, some red flags around him too.
Oleynik on The other hand looked good and is motivated because of financial problems.

Oleynik is worth a stab
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Coming in slim is great, he's still old AF and his chin and gas tank issues are still there.

No issues if people think Alexei can land a bomb and win this, but can't understand betting anything other than his KO line. Sub is the tiniest of chances vs a guy like 'Doom, and no way can Oleinik even last 3 rounds at this point, much less WIN a decision.
 
rille31 said:
Oleynik likes to go for takedowns

Any chance he takedowns doom and survives in his guard?
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Probably not. Maybe, MAYBE in rd 1 when Alexei isn't gassed AF. Not after that though. Even if Werdum is out of shape he should have 2 rounds of cardio in him. That's 1 more round than Oleinik will have.
 
benebox said:
Anyone tempted with these?
View attachment 766641
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If I was gonna play one, probably Cejudo/Cruz. You'd need to hope Tony or Justin finish the other early. But if Cruz looks like he did vs TJ and makes it a barnburner like that fight was, it could win. At +900 that's where I'd put my $.
 
mkess101 said:
Coming in slim is great, he's still old AF and his chin and gas tank issues are still there.

No issues if people think Alexei can land a bomb and win this, but can't understand betting anything other than his KO line. Sub is the tiniest of chances vs a guy like 'Doom, and no way can Oleinik even last 3 rounds at this point, much less WIN a decision.
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Dude, I love you, and while I think basing bets solely off weigh-ins is hilariously dumb, Oleynik coming in at 227.5 in great shape was very smart and encouraging, and Werdum looking flabby and flat at 243 has to be very concerning.
 
Any other thoughts on the weigh-ins? I've only seen the main card but Cruz is looking like a zombie in my opinion.
 
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