UFC on ESPN+ 30: Kattar v Ige

I'll be betting Ige decision at +600. If he can mix in some TDs I think he has a decent chance to win a decision which will be his predominant path to victory. I haven't taped though so just going by faded memory and gut instinct.

I've been way too mentally invested in the stock market to tape and probably won't for the next event either. I've decided to cash out on nearly all of my positions in the upcoming week, Tesla has made me a fortune and even though I think it will carry on going up in the short term with its inclusion into the S&P 500 I couldn't help but sell a chunk of my position as I'm pretty sure the whole stock market is in a bubble. It's the same reason I'm keeping my Bitcoin even at its current price. Sorry, went completely off-topic here.
 
PuertoRican said:


I talk about the McCann vs. Santos fight at the 31:30 minute mark to the 40:30 minute mark of the video.
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Agreed with everything you said here. Meatball is my biggest bet on this card so far, still great value on her line. Santos is not some elite grappler or anything close to that. She's primarily a kickboxer and a bjj blue belt who just came out with a decent sub attempt in her debut. Meatball's a much better striker and might even be a better wrestler by this point. There's certainly a chance she makes a mistake and Santos slips in a sub, but it's nowhere near as dangerous a fight as it was with Robertson. Meatball should win an easy decision here if not a t/ko.
 
I noticed alot of people are bog on Gordon. I'm loving Fishgold at +125. Where is the trust in Gordon coming from? I felt that fishgold was on his way to taking out makwan anirkhani if amirkhani didnt hit him w the low blow. Completely reset the fight and makwan got the submission after that fishgold is a bull and Gordon is kind of glas . Idk . I think an even line is justified, but theres a lot of Gordon love . Good luck every1
 
These are my picks btw. I think main event will be a back n forth high level fight. Potential for a war. Feel like Ige may have some wrinkles in his game to get the job done. Can see an Ige sub, ige control, ige KO even, kattar can only KO or decision him. too much value on Ige. Kattar is not a lock
 

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I feel like people are just judging Santos off her last fight against Borella. It definitely wasn't a great performance, but she rarely got the chance to let her striking go. Borella was just relentless with the wall n stall and takedown attempts. She got one in the first round and Santos wasn't able to get back up, which is concerning going up against Meatball. But after that she stuffed I think every takedown attempt, just didn't let her hands and feet go enough. When she did though, she looked good. I definitely think she is the better striker by far and has a pretty big reach advantage. Not long ago, Mcann gave up a close round to Priscilla Cachoiera, and Santos is way better. I actually thought when the line first came out that it was weird that Mcann wasn't a big favorite, after watching some tape I can see why. To me Mcann needs takedowns to win this fight, which is very possible. I can't say I'd be confident in betting Santos, but there's a definite PTV in my opinion.
 
WolfgangKennelz said:
I noticed alot of people are bog on Gordon. I'm loving Fishgold at +125. Where is the trust in Gordon coming from? I felt that fishgold was on his way to taking out makwan anirkhani if amirkhani didnt hit him w the low blow. Completely reset the fight and makwan got the submission after that fishgold is a bull and Gordon is kind of glas . Idk . I think an even line is justified, but theres a lot of Gordon love . Good luck every1
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I am also loving fishgold in this one i had seen some tapes on his recent fights. I will problary grab a sub or dec bet. Small one.
 
rev0lver said:
Can someone explain to me this upplaying of Taila Santos? What am I missing? She's a can crusher with mediocre striking who dropped a decision to a low tier fighter in her only UFC fight. She's not even a great grappler, she just happened to start her debut with a failed sub attempt. McCann feels like one of the biggest value lines on this card at evens.
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I'm almost definitely biased against her at this stage, but man, McCann sucks. She's pretty much just a brawler without real power who has fought the who's who of the worst fighters the UFC has to offer. Can crushing exists within the UFC too ‍♂️ She's not some superstar wrestler, her wrestling has looked better progressively from fight to fight but Priscilla Cahoeira, Ariane Lipski and Belbita all do not possess an ounce of defensive wrestling or competent BJJ and these nothing pointing towards her suddenly having elite level technique. Don't get me wrong, Taila Santos isn't great either but she does have a reach advantage and her Submission line even now at 11.0 is money
 
WolfgangKennelz said:
I noticed alot of people are bog on Gordon. I'm loving Fishgold at +125. Where is the trust in Gordon coming from? I felt that fishgold was on his way to taking out makwan anirkhani if amirkhani didnt hit him w the low blow. Completely reset the fight and makwan got the submission after that fishgold is a bull and Gordon is kind of glas . Idk . I think an even line is justified, but theres a lot of Gordon love . Good luck every1
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Wrestling: Jared Gordon has it, Fishgold doesn't
 
Betonline is so annoying. I bet santos mccan to go the distance at +160 but of course they just removed the bet and the line now....
 
Tirimasuperman said:
I'm almost definitely biased against her at this stage, but man, McCann sucks. She's pretty much just a brawler without real power who has fought the who's who of the worst fighters the UFC has to offer. Can crushing exists within the UFC too ‍♂️ She's not some superstar wrestler, her wrestling has looked better progressively from fight to fight but Priscilla Cahoeira, Ariane Lipski and Belbita all do not possess an ounce of defensive wrestling or competent BJJ and these nothing pointing towards her suddenly having elite level technique. Don't get me wrong, Taila Santos isn't great either but she does have a reach advantage and her Submission line even now at 11.0 is money
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2 can crushers. It could go any way really.
 
I feel like on of the things we don't consider as much when it comes to WMMA is the type of takedown landed. I love McCann but in Santos I'm seeing a lanky long legged fighter who's going to be the equivalent of what they say is "trying to take down a table which always lands legs first". Santos isn't going to be the fighter McCann easily takes down and doesn't give her any resistance when she's bull rushing to get her opponent's momentum going backwards.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Kattar is a "slow starter" after knocking out Lamas and Fishgold in round 1, and then finishing Stephens halfway in round 2? And we're expecting the same Ige who was repeatedly brutalized and hurt by Barbosa's hands for the first 2 rounds to somehow survive against Kattar's with any regularity?

Betting that Kattar-Ige goes over 2.5 rounds or starts round 4 is poor at evens, nevermind any minus numbers.
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A lot of Kattar's faster starts have been in response to Fishgold and Stephens coming after him so hard. I'd also say the elbow that he caught Stephens with is probably not a strike that he'll land again, and probably one of the hardest shots anybody's ever been hit with at Featherweight. There's a good chance that Ige'll come out hard with legkicks here that could force a similar tempo from Kattar as he did against Stephens in response to his start.

PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Stephens, one of the most legendarily tough, durable fighters in MMA history, who has been stopped 3 times by knockout in almost 50 fights across 15 years despite facing a litany of big strikers and massively larger opponents is way less durable than Ige, who was nearly killed by Barboza a fight ago and was being badly hurt and battered by freaking Jordan Griffin of all people.

Even if Ige survives 2.5 agonizing rounds against Kattar (which is possible, just not likely), logic like this is going to lead to anti-value.

Incidentally, you know who else was never knocked out before facing Kattar? Chris Fishgold. While I consider Ige the better overall fighter, I rate Fishgold's defense as better.
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Griffin's more in the 'springs in with massive haymakers' camp, Barboza's underrated as a puncher, Kattar's grappling also isn't fantastic for following-up on hurt fighters which IMO can factor in pretty well for the longevity of the fight. Even with Fishgold, it was more how Fishgold approached the fight that forced the finish than really Kattar going hunting for it. Fishgold spent the entire fight sprinting at Kattar, gassed and then got taken out.

Kinda ambivalent on the over 2.5 personally, but I do think there's gonna be a decent livebet spot on Kattar around the end of round 1 since he's historically had a tendency to take his time in round 1. Could also see him relenting even more when he's got 25 mins to work with.

Over/Under is probably a product of the tempo with which Ige approaches Kattar, though that's frequently the case with over/under bets where it's more down to how the fighters feel like coming out on a given day than necessarily 100% predictable.
 
Apparently Bergh isn't weighing-in and Bergh–Gonzalez is off.

Too bad, I feel Bergh is flakey and was intrigued by Gonzalez Sub at like +1500.
 
BaruchSpinoza said:
Apparently Bergh isn't weighing-in and Bergh–Gonzalez is off.

Too bad, I feel Bergh is flakey and was intrigued by Gonzalez Sub at like +1500.
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Great news for me hahaa I bet Bergh a bunch and then watched more tape and had to bet Gonzalez to undo my bet at a bit of a loss.
 
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