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Line is too wide for Izzy vs Vettori imo. Marvin has become a top tier grappler. He won a round vs Izzy the first time by getting him down and controlling him for a good stretch. He's not as big as Jan so might not be quite as easy for him to get it done but I still think he's absolutely capable of it. You also have any mystique that Izzy had gone. Even though it was at LHW, everyone still saw it.
Marvin +235 has value.
How would you cap the fight? +150 for Vettori or so?
I think Vettori looked like crap vs Holland, and I bet him. If he shows up like that he won´t beat Izzy. So I hope his body is fully recovered, as there is no question about his motivation. I´m not sure how good it is that he already gets this fight, i´m not convinced he´s at his full 100%. We may see Izzy making a statement after the last Jan fight, but overall it does feel off a bit, and we´ve seen that when that mystique is gone, it means a lot for their opponents confidence, and obv the gameplan is even more obvious now than before.
The lack of get up game from Izzy is a huge conf boost for Vettori bettors though, that made it look like Vettori just needs to get Izzy down and thats a wrap for that round, and given that Vettori is tough and durable, and possibly may catch a second wind like he did vs Herm, it´s def a winable matchup for him.
I'd cap Vettori +150ish yeah. Maybe as high as +175 but damn sure not over +200.
Holland is a weird guy to fight. Goofed off vs Brunson but looked to actually be trying vs Vettori.
And yeah Izzy having no clue how to get up is where the value comes from. Accepting bottom vs an elite grappler like Vettori has become loses rounds. Vettori's also a guy who's figured out how to push through even when exhausted. I like backing dogs that can do that. If it's 2-2 heading into the 5th and both guys are tired, I trust Vettori's ability to doggedly pursue and get a TD more than Izzy's ability to avoid it.
Not sure but I might like Peterson against Hooper at these odds. Hooper will need to get it down for any chance of winning but his takedowns are poor - if Peterson can sprawl and brawl it should be his fight to lose.
Dober standing should piece Riddell up but Riddell seems to have decent grappling and Drew's TDD isn't elite. Assume Riddell will be looking for takedowns often, might have to look into it more to see if he's likely to get them. Drew isn't too good off his back so would be a concern if he does get taken down.
Maia I think is done at this point - he obviously needs to get takedowns to win this. Belal should be able to avoid getting taken down in the clinch and beat Maia up to a decision win - obviously gets interesting if Maia can get a take down but I think Belal should be able to avoid it at this stage in their careers.
Wow really? I can't go that far but I hold your opinion in high regard so that makes me feel good about my chances on this one haha:
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I think Izzy is overrated honestly. We saw that with his odds against Jan. We know where his weaknesses are, and honestly, Vettori has shown improvements in those exact areas. I see Vettori putting a pace on Izzy too and just constantly making him defend takedowns and being stuck in clinch work. Honestly, I wouldn't rule out a Vettori finish either.
The implied odds for Israel are about 71%. Leaving about three out of ten for Vettori. If you think Vettori actually beats his ass four or more times out of ten, then that's when you go for it.
Izzy Vettori takes places in the 30 foot cage. Haven't watched must tape but these are my initial thoughts. Izzy has great first level takedown defence and great footwork.
Vettori doesn't have a great shot. He walks forward and tries to grab you. I think that's an issue if his gameplan is to wrestle consistently. He looked like a deer in the headlights standing with Holland. I don't think Vettori will be able to land many takedowns and if he does I think it will be against the cage, where Izzy has shown to have decent get ups. Vettori is also significantly outranged. I don't think he can consistently wrestle enough to win.
I think people's bias against Izzy (for being annoying outside the cage or just being good) combined with his last fight where Jan Blachowicz timed some great opportune takedowns combined with their first fight being split. I feel Izzy has improved a lot since their first fight, a lot more than Vettori has.
Somebody tell me a how Craig beats Jamahal Hill? On the feet its not even close. Somehow wins by meme sub? I feel they are rewarding Jamahal for getting past OSP and are trying to build him up now.
Not sure but I might like Peterson against Hooper at these odds. Hooper will need to get it down for any chance of winning but his takedowns are poor - if Peterson can sprawl and brawl it should be his fight to lose.
Dober standing should piece Riddell up but Riddell seems to have decent grappling and Drew's TDD isn't elite. Assume Riddell will be looking for takedowns often, might have to look into it more to see if he's likely to get them. Drew isn't too good off his back so would be a concern if he does get taken down.
Maia I think is done at this point - he obviously needs to get takedowns to win this. Belal should be able to avoid getting taken down in the clinch and beat Maia up to a decision win - obviously gets interesting if Maia can get a take down but I think Belal should be able to avoid it at this stage in their careers.