Russia/Ukraine Megathread V6

[idrankyourbeer]

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im gonna be pissed off if i end up going to my grave before i find out what those god damn buttons on the table beside him do. its gotta be somehow connected to some kind of medieval torture/execution device.

this might be the greatest mystery since the female orgasm

 

[bad mojo]

im gonna be pissed off if i end up going to my grave before i find out what those god damn buttons on the table beside him do. its gotta be some kind of medieval torture/execution device.

this might be the greatest mystery since the female orgasm

I believe that's how he logs into Sherdog. The moment before the photo was taken, there was Mayberry lounge on that screen there, I swear.

 

[Octavian]

OSA SAM

Wtf is the Russian army honestly doing?

 

[Octavian]

Russia can keep force escalating beyond what Ukraine can unless we start supplying them nukes. I can't see Ukraine winning.

Let's define "winning" here... if Russia manages to take some of southeaster Ukraine and suffers 40k KIA and a further 80 wounded, that euqates to a huge blow to combat ready forces. We've also seen just how poorly it all really functions - it's nothing short of embarassing on a global stage, hence the brutality and war crimes. If you saw a peace treaty at that stage and Ukraine join NATO, that's a resounding loss for Russia. Sweden and Finland will go that way soon and the West might be convinced to defence Moldova as well at that point. If this all plays out from now till.. September and Europe has weened itself significantly off Russian gas, Russia will be in horrid shape. Think debt default and mass exodus of talent. China's economy is facing serious problems, COVID lockdowns and Xi is up for reelection soon - that also doesn't bode well for Russia.

 

[Snowblindlove]

It was literally a force designed to seize an important airfield and be reinforced, but a billion tactical failures of the Russian military prevented its success. Putin was forced to limit his efforts in the East and South. Nobody ever thought he would ignore those fronts. Putting all that time and resources into the attack on Kyiv cost Putin precious time. That time allowed Ukrainian forces to strengthen alliances with NATO and now with their gained support Putin has no real way to hold those regions long term as long as Ukraine will fight.

I don't know if you're either the most tactically inept person alive or some Russian shill, but there is about ZERO chance the Northern front was just some way to split Ukrainian efforts. It was a disaster of epic proportions for any goals in the East or Coast.

All the northern attack did was strengthen the resolve of the Ukrainian military, and give them time to get the weapons they need to repel Russians on the East and coast. Putin has fucked himself.

No it was not there is no evidence to suggest that force that small was designed to take the city. That is speculation that really makes no sense compared to past Russian military objectives you are drinking the kool aid of an unchecked media that writes anything that Zelensky government claims.

 

[Rod1]

im gonna be pissed off if i end up going to my grave before i find out what those god damn buttons on the table beside him do. its gotta be somehow connected to some kind of medieval torture/execution device.

this might be the greatest mystery since the female orgasm

 

[12ga.]

Let's define "winning" here... if Russia manages to take some of southeaster Ukraine and suffers 40k KIA and a further 80 wounded, that euqates to a huge blow to combat ready forces. We've also seen just how poorly it all really functions - it's nothing short of embarassing on a global stage, hence the brutality and war crimes. If you saw a peace treaty at that stage and Ukraine join NATO, that's a resounding loss for Russia. Sweden and Finland will go that way soon and the West might be convinced to defence Moldova as well at that point. If this all plays out from now till.. September and Europe has weened itself significantly off Russian gas, Russia will be in horrid shape. Think debt default and mass exodus of talent. China's economy is facing serious problems, COVID lockdowns and Xi is up for reelection soon - that also doesn't bode well for Russia.

Ukraine is winning the PR war I'll give you that. Anyway - Russia winning is have Ukraine up to dniper river in east and entire black sea coast by September... basically the Russian speaking areas. Ukraine winning is drive Russia out including Crimea.

You think Russia cares abt 40K dead? 22 million died in WW2 and they still wouldnt give up. Thats noise level for them. Ukrainans are just as tough which is why this will be very bloody

 

[Rod1]

No it was not there is no evidence to suggest that force that small was designed to take the city. That is speculation that really makes no sense compared to past Russian military objectives you are drinking the kool aid of an unchecked media that writes anything that Zelensky government claims.

 

[Rod1]

Russia can keep force escalating beyond what Ukraine can unless we start supplying them nukes. I can't see Ukraine winning.

No, Russia can't escatale beyond Ukraine, since Ukraine is being supplied by the West unimpeded due to Russian failure to take or encircle Kyiv.

 

[Snowblindlove]

That is cool and all man but that is not evidence that force was designed to take the city of Kiev. In fact idk even know you replied to me. I also don´t believe at all Ukraine will even exist in its current borders in months time. NATO membership may happen for those countries. Europe wont divest from Russian energy they aren´t and are still buying it and the ones who refuse are crashing their own economies and the US is stupidly using its own supplies to prop them up. The Russian economy has had a ruble rebound which you deny because you just love to argue against reality and well yeah.

Be prepared to eat the crow man

 

[Strychnine]

Russia can keep force escalating beyond what Ukraine can unless we start supplying them nukes. I can't see Ukraine winning.

That's the thing about this whole war. Ukraine doesn't have to win, they just have to keep fighting. Russia can take Ukraine, but they can't hold it. They don't have the troops to fight against an active insurgency. With all of this going on, Russia will still have to try to replenish their losses with massive sanctions against them.

All Ukraine has to do is keep fighting. Time is against Russia.

 

[Snowblindlove]

Let's define "winning" here... if Russia manages to take some of southeaster Ukraine and suffers 40k KIA and a further 80 wounded, that euqates to a huge blow to combat ready forces. We've also seen just how poorly it all really functions - it's nothing short of embarassing on a global stage, hence the brutality and war crimes. If you saw a peace treaty at that stage and Ukraine join NATO, that's a resounding loss for Russia. Sweden and Finland will go that way soon and the West might be convinced to defence Moldova as well at that point. If this all plays out from now till.. September and Europe has weened itself significantly off Russian gas, Russia will be in horrid shape. Think debt default and mass exodus of talent. China's economy is facing serious problems, COVID lockdowns and Xi is up for reelection soon - that also doesn't bode well for Russia.

Devils advocate

If Russia takes eastern ukraine east of the river and the south and gains 20 million new citizens who are largelly pro russian and the massive reources from the lithium pits and mines and the gas fields and gas pipelines and the heavy industry and the 2 largest nuclear power plants in Ukraine and the entire coast that is a massive win. Then if dedollarization continues to happen and the Ruble grows in value due to nations like India, China, Brazil, Hungary, Serbia, etc agreeing to pay for Gas in Rubles or in currencies besides the USD or Euro. Fyi Germany, Hungary, Serbia, and I recall slovakia I think and somwhere else in Europe have agreed to exchange Euros for Rubles.
If there a famine and russia which is food rich and secure prospers while insecure nations suffer badly and if the vote for Finland in NATO fails due to Hungarian and Bulgarian oppostiion then what? Then what if China takes Taiwan and the rich sillicion valley of taiwan and has the US by the balls for manufacturing of semi conductors? but US doesn´t want to cause nuclear war so US does nothing and then US wasted its strategic energy reseves giving oil and gas to europe and giving its strategic reserves of weaponry to a failed now landlocked ukrainian state and then poland annexes western ukraine thereby breaking EU law.

 

[12ga.]

That's the thing about this whole war. Ukraine doesn't have to win, they just have to keep fighting. Russia can take Ukraine, but they can't hold it. They don't have the troops to fight against an active insurgency. With all of this going on, Russia will still have to try to replenish their losses with massive sanctions against them.

All Ukraine has to do is keep fighting. Time is against Russia.

There is not going to be an insurgency in Russian speaking areas. They have zero plans to conquer the Ukrainian speaking areas. Way too dangerous as you note. As far as sanctions literally it's only the west and only partial with lots of exemptions so west ppl dont riot. I think Russia will be just fine in trading since they have stuff ppl need. Even more so as they will control 45% of global wheat market

BTW this is why I think our politicians will settle on WW3 eventually once they realize all was for not and Russia has such a stranglehold on resources and food.

 

[7even]

Are artillery guns automatically aimed and in sync with the surveillance drone? Wtf?

 

[DoomPatrol]

No it was not there is no evidence to suggest that force that small was designed to take the city. That is speculation that really makes no sense compared to past Russian military objectives you are drinking the kool aid of an unchecked media that writes anything that Zelensky government claims.

They tried to seize a strategic airfield with a paratrooper unit and reinforce it with a convoy that was stopped. They had between 20k and 30k men dedicated to the northern assault. That's not a feint. It's a tactical failure and served no real strategic purpose.

It would have been a successful northern push had Ukrainian forces not been handed the best intelligence the West could provide on Russian troop movements.

So go do your homework on military tactics. What you're saying doesn't really hold up to the facts.

Putin abandoned his efforts in the north. He replaced his commander in Ukraine because of the failures. His upper intelligence officials are under house arrest.

He is stumbling through this. This is nothing to do with just accepting whatever Ukrainian officials say.

 

[Snowblindlove]

They tried to seize a strategic airfield with a paratrooper unit and reinforce it with a convoy that was stopped. They had between 20k and 30k men dedicated to the northern assault. That's not a feint. It's a tactical failure and served no real strategic purpose.

It would have been a successful northern push had Ukrainian forces not been handed the best intelligence the West could provide on Russian troop movements.

So go do your homework on military tactics. What you're saying doesn't really hold up to the facts.

Putin abandoned his efforts in the north. He replaced his commander in Ukraine because of the failures. His upper intelligence officials are under house arrest.

He is stumbling through this. This is nothing to do with just accepting whatever Ukrainian officials say.

No they did not they did not try to seize a city of 3 million with that small of a force

 

[WhiteMousse]

I love how nobody gives a shit about this anymore.
"Fuck it, I can't get any points over this, onward to Musk"

 

[idrankyourbeer]

lol

 

[Snowblindlove]

There is not going to be an insurgency in Russian speaking areas. They have zero plans to conquer the Ukrainian speaking areas. Way too dangerous as you note. As far as sanctions literally it's only the west and only partial with lots of exemptions so west ppl dont riot. I think Russia will be just fine in trading since they have stuff ppl need. Even more so as they will control 45% of global wheat market

BTW this is why I think our politicians will settle on WW3 eventually once they realize all was for not and Russia has such a stranglehold on resources and food.

40 million people there allegedly according to the government. But really it was more like 35 million as millions of ukrainains live in poland and russia before this. So war start 35 million reaslistically, then 5 million (mainly pro westerners have fled)

at 30 million. Then consider the east of ukraine had the least fleeing of people and is 20 million people that are mostly pro russian. If Russia takes land east of dniper and the south they get a super majority pro russian civilian force of 20 million. Leaving 10 million or 12 million in western ukraine and kiev plus the 9 million or so ukrainians who live abroad (5 million refugees and the other millions who were already living in europe and canada etc.

Then consider that they don´t have Islam as a religion and aren´t radicals and there don´t have a historic claim to the land of eastern ukarine and you have a recipe for effectively ZERO real resistance.

Now if Russia wished to hold Kiev that is different or western ukraine but now intelligence suggests that Poland may double cross Ukraine and is seeking to annex western ukraine that was taken from them by Stalin. It isn´t all of western ukraine but its the far western parts. I think there is a high chance this happens. Then someone ´´neutral´´´will be appointed in Kiev or made or forced into peace and then Ukraine will become a land locked state border by the new Russian state of Novorossiya to the south and east and by poland to the west and belarus to the north. The new ukrainian state will hold kiev as the only major city. Poland is 100% going to reclaim Lvov that is an ancient historic city for them. What is funny is how that city is a stronghold for these Azov nazi types and they are worshipping Poland for help and they may get paid back by seeing their flag lowered and the Polish flag raised.

 

[Snowblindlove]

lol

actually is plausible. Poland has historic claims to it and polish politicians talk about it all the time and it would also ensure Russia could not move into the west (not like they want to anyways)