UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall

There are some heavy favorites on this fight card that are very likely to win this weekend.
But i dont hate some of the underdog plays this week either.

Paddy Pimblett:
Very unlikely for the new UFC sensational fighter to lose knowing that the UFC is trying to promote and push him in the ranking for future tiltle fights.
I am going to say and predict Paddy is going to win agaisnt Jordan Leavitt.

Paddy comes into with the height and reach advantage.
On the betting i dont dislike his M/L i would prefer to bet on his KO/Sub props.
Its being rare to see Paddy in a dec.

Still undecided on Chris Curtis vs Jack Hermansson
I think going with the violence bet on that one is a good way.

Sadly still undecided on some other fights for this fight card.

On the Main Event i am liking the favorite to win.
 
PuertoRican said:
I don't give a fuck who wins, as long as it's U2.5 so I can cash it at +110.

Good luck with whoever you bet.
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Do you not think that’s a bit risky? Gimme a breakdown why it’s under 2.5
 
DarkneT said:
Do you not think that’s a bit risky? Gimme a breakdown why it’s under 2.5
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+110 is quite a lot better than what is offered right now. Personally I am kinda hesitant to touch anything on this fight without a good payout. Way to many question marks regarding Aspinall mostly.
Gustafsson vs Krylov is pretty much the same in this regard, the deciding factor will probably be inside their heads. We don't have a clue which Gustafsson will show up.
 
Going for a long shot here betting my rent money on this parlay; Craig, Molly, Curtis, Gustaf! Lets go! +1200 parlay play baby!
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I also think Volkan might be hesitant to go after Craig on the ground even if he thinks he has him hurt. Which is sensible.
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No Time has run out of time unfortunately; he has been through many wars and has been hesitant pulling the trigger. His grappling isnt the best either imo.
 
The over has been getting hammered for Mokaev fight. Went from +139 to near evens now.
 
Can someone explain why Makwan is almost a 2 to 1 dog against Jonathan Pearce?
 
ExitLUPin said:
Can someone explain why Makwan is almost a 2 to 1 dog against Jonathan Pearce?
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It's probably people looking at Pearce having excellent cardio and putting a very high pace on and Makwan being a notorious gasser.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Can someone explain why Makwan is almost a 2 to 1 dog against Jonathan Pearce?
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because makwan is on a decline and Pearce is relentless grappler. Makwan could still submit him though.
 
Danis_champ said:
because makwan is on a decline and Pearce is relentless grappler. Makwan could still submit him though.
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True but Makwan is propably a slightly better grappler for as long as he has cardio.
 
What exactly does a Paddy win look like? Him winning an extremely low volume striking match by decision or knocking Leavitt out in the first round?

Paddy may throw his punches straighter than Jordan but without a willing dance partner I haven't seen anything to suggest he can effectively cut off the cage and walk his opponent down to land a "knockout blow". I also haven't seen anything to suggest he has the punching power to hurt an opponent that is not totally caught off guard. He appears to have average punching power. I am not saying he cannot be effective with it but against an opponent like Leavitt looking to strictly grapple he may not have much of an opportunity. Leavitt may have ugly technique but he doesn't appear to leave a lot of openings for an elementary striker to exploit. Leavitt cracked his opponent square on the jaw at 3:05 of Round 3 in his last fight and that opponent stumbled and almost immediately shot an ill-advised TD (that costed him the fight). Leavitt does appear to have some offense on the feet for what its worth. I don't think he is Ben Askren on the feet as some seem to believe.

Leavitt has shown a consistent ability to dictate the terms of his fights. He has turned every single one of his UFC fights into a slow paced grappling match. The lone exception being against Trey Ogden, an offensive grappler of a similar grappling skill level to Paddy who attempted to strike, and Ogden still largely fought a fight dictated by where Leavitt felt comfortable engaging and lost.

Leavitt was able to outgrapple/outscramble Claudio Puelles for an entire round when both were fresh. I don't think it is unlikely that he can push a similar fight on Paddy and steal the final round against an exhausted Paddy to win a decision (which is +500 currently).
 
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UFCIsNOTRigged said:
What exactly does a Paddy win look like? Him winning an extremely low volume striking match by decision or knocking Leavitt out in the first round?

Paddy may throw his punches straighter than Jordan but without a willing dance partner I haven't seen anything to suggest he can effectively cut off the cage and walk his opponent down to land a "knockout blow". I also haven't seen anything to suggest he has the punching power to hurt an opponent that is not totally caught off guard. He appears to have average punching power. I am not saying he cannot be effective with it but against an opponent like Leavitt looking to strictly grapple he may not have much of an opportunity. Leavitt may have ugly technique but he doesn't appear to leave a lot of openings for an elementary striker to exploit. Leavitt cracked his opponent square on the jaw at 3:05 of Round 3 in his last fight and that opponent stumbled and almost immediately shot an ill-advised TD (that costed him the fight). Leavitt does appear to have some offense on the feet for what its worth. I don't think he is Ben Askren on the feet as some seem to believe.

Leavitt has shown a consistent ability to dictate the terms of his fights. He has turned every single one of his UFC fights into a slow paced grappling match. The lone exception being against Trey Ogden, an offensive grappler of a similar grappling skill level to Paddy who attempted to strike, and Ogden still largely fought a fight dictated by where Leavitt felt comfortable engaging and lost.

Leavitt was able to outgrapple/outscramble Claudio Puelles for an entire round when both were fresh. I don't think it is unlikely that he can push a similar fight on Paddy and steal the final round against an exhausted Paddy to win a decision (which is +500 currently).
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I think Paddy's BJJ is good enough to hang with Leavitt on the ground if he needs to, I don't think Leavitt has particularly dynamic takedowns and I think he's pretty slow on the feet. I reckon Paddy cracks him if he gets too close and I wouldn't rule out Paddy outgrappling him either.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
What exactly does a Paddy win look like? Him winning an extremely low volume striking match by decision or knocking Leavitt out in the first round?

Paddy may throw his punches straighter than Jordan but without a willing dance partner I haven't seen anything to suggest he can effectively cut off the cage and walk his opponent down to land a "knockout blow". I also haven't seen anything to suggest he has the punching power to hurt an opponent that is not totally caught off guard. He appears to have average punching power. I am not saying he cannot be effective with it but against an opponent like Leavitt looking to strictly grapple he may not have much of an opportunity. Leavitt may have ugly technique but he doesn't appear to leave a lot of openings for an elementary striker to exploit. Leavitt cracked his opponent square on the jaw at 3:05 of Round 3 in his last fight and that opponent stumbled and almost immediately shot an ill-advised TD (that costed him the fight). Leavitt does appear to have some offense on the feet for what its worth. I don't think he is Ben Askren on the feet as some seem to believe.

Leavitt has shown a consistent ability to dictate the terms of his fights. He has turned every single one of his UFC fights into a slow paced grappling match. The lone exception being against Trey Ogden, an offensive grappler of a similar grappling skill level to Paddy who attempted to strike, and Ogden still largely fought a fight dictated by where Leavitt felt comfortable engaging and lost.

Leavitt was able to outgrapple/outscramble Claudio Puelles for an entire round when both were fresh. I don't think it is unlikely that he can push a similar fight on Paddy and steal the final round against an exhausted Paddy to win a decision (which is +500 currently).
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My initial read is that Paddy's speed would be the difference maker in that matchup, and I do favor him in this matchup.
With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised one bit if Paddy blew his gas tank and got ground down to lose a decision. So I think a sprinkle bet on Leavitt by Dec is not a bad idea, even if it's just as a hedge bet.
 
I'm still not sure how I feel about this card.
-I'll probably put a small on Craig at those odds. I was slightly leaning him anyway.
-I like Curtis over Jack. I was happy to get him at even odds.
-I'll probably throw a sprinkle on Gus as well. Not too much though, because Gus has been semi-retired for years now, and father time is unforgiving. With that being said, I don't trust Krylov either, so I'll go with the + odds Gus.
-I like Diakiese, Paddy, Curtis, and Aspinall. I might make some parlays with them somehow.
-Even though I favor Aspinall, I think Blaydes could take that one. Definitely add a livebet to that one.

As always, I'll likely put a bet or two on each fight right before they start.
 
Am I imagining it or does Diakiese think he’s a wrestler these days? If he wrestles Hadzo he’s lock of the card for me
 
DarkneT said:
Am I imagining it or does Diakiese think he’s a wrestler these days? If he wrestles Hadzo he’s lock of the card for me
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Well he did hit ELEVEN takedowns in his last fight...
 
Guld said:
I'm still not sure how I feel about this card.
-I'll probably put a small on Craig at those odds. I was slightly leaning him anyway.
-I like Curtis over Jack. I was happy to get him at even odds.
-I'll probably throw a sprinkle on Gus as well. Not too much though, because Gus has been semi-retired for years now, and father time is unforgiving. With that being said, I don't trust Krylov either, so I'll go with the + odds Gus.
-I like Diakiese, Paddy, Curtis, and Aspinall. I might make some parlays with them somehow.
-Even though I favor Aspinall, I think Blaydes could take that one. Definitely add a livebet to that one.

As always, I'll likely put a bet or two on each fight right before they start.
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Read my mind
 
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