You're putting words in our mouths. I take Perriera very seriously, he presents instant fight ended qualities. That said, the chance I give him is more of a punchers chance.
I keep seeing the narrative thrown around that Perriera is the superior kickboxer and those same people throw out a little cope line where they say "Perriera should win, but they wouldn't be surprised to see Izzy leg tap and jab him to a UD". Which I find odd because surely the superior kickboxer would be able to shut down such a basic game plan. I then sarcastically ask why that is. Of course I never get an answer, but since it's rhetorical, I'll answer it myself. I think deep down they're not even confident in their pick, and their complete analysis is literally just comparing accolades and not actual fight analysis. They really just want to see Izzy lose, to the point where they just parrot the same talking points and resort to insults when challenged.
Now the reason I believe this fight will be different is because after seeing their kickboxing fights and their fights since in MMA, I truly believe Israel is the superior Kickboxer, plus everything that differs from the kickboxing setting to the MMA setting favors Izzy. These things being the large cage, the lack of standing 8 counts, and the smaller gloves.
The cage obviously favors Izzy because he's a lot more mobile and he will definitely be taking advantage of the open space to circle out, reset, and counter Perriera until he tires. The smaller gloves also favor Izzy (opposed to shertard popular belief) because he is the more mobile fighter, he doesn't rely on the high guard for defense. Though Perriera is more mobile than your typical, basic, MMA striker, in the context of great strikers, he doesn't have the best defensive footwork (offensive is another story). This will make him a big target for the more mobile, active, and outside fighter in Izzy. The lack of standing 8 counts assures that Izzy will finish Perriera when he inevitably hurts him (imo).
Perriera has shown to be much more hittable than Adesanya against lesser strikers like Bruno Silva. I'd like to have a larger sample size, but the guy has fucking 7 fights. With that in mind, the only guy who has touched up Adesanya like that at MW is Kelvin Gastelum, and he's actually a pretty good boxer, Bruno Silva is no Kelvin Gastelum on the feet. Kelvin keeps a crazy pressure, cuts the cage well, has powerful straight punches (including his jab which lumped Izzy up bad), comes forward with the threat of the takedown, and thanks to his time at Kings MMA, the guy has really good kick defense (low, mid, and hi). This combination of factors created a great foil for Adesanya. Perriera on the other hand are a lot of clean punches from a gritty, yet basic Bruno Silva. Alex was obviously the superior striker and he overcame his obstacle. But if a basic striker like Bruno Silva is able to hit Alex and make a difficult fight for him, you don't think a world class kickboxer like Israel can similarly touch him up?
Now as for my punchers chance comment. Sure Alex Perriera can set up his left hook, it's all anyone parrots around here, but tell me how? Leading up to the Costa fight all everybody said was "bOdY sHotZ", when I challenged and asked most posters how Paulo landed his body shots, all I heard where crickets. I let them know that unless his opponents are completely immobile (Olewale Bamgbose) Paulo usually cuts the cage and lands body shots against the cage where his opponents only have two exits. Izzy is far from immobile and offensive Paulo's footwork was too basic for Izzy.
Earlier I mentioned Perriera has good offensive footwork, which is true, but Izzy has shown in the Kickboxing ring that his defensive footwork is superior, now take into account all the extra space he has to work with in the larger cage. Add in the fact that Izzy is excellent at fighting backwards and counter punching. His reach is so long that his straights land at kicking range. He never has to enter Perriera's punching range in order to touch him up. He attempted to in their second kickboxing fight, and he even hurt Perriera, bit the unwarranted 8 count allowed him to recover and he caught an overzealous Izzy with a left hook (Izzy did block a right hook but his other side was exposed). Izzy absolutely learned from.
Taking all of this context into account, I see the fight playing out something like this. Perriera will be very active in the first round, he's here to wins fucking title, he's not just going to roll over and lose. While Izzy is establishing his range Perriera will definitely connect, possibly aiming for legs. Izzy will try to maintain kicking range and will fight mostly going backwards in the beginning. Perriera, confident in his striking acumen, will chase down Israel. While Perriera is being the aggressor Israel will accumulate damage from kicking range with a combination of jabs, straights, leg kicks, and even headkicks just to keep Alex honest. If Izzy does attack the body (tall order against a power puncher) I don't suspect it will be with kicks because of Alex's kick defense. Though Adesanya will definitely be aiming to hurt Alex, his main strategy will be to accumulate damage until Alex slows down even just a little. By this time Izzy should have his reads (mid second round, possibly third) and he'll be able to use his speed advantage (and take advantage of the smaller gloves, lol) to begin to intelligently pressure Perriera and push him back. This is the beginning of the end, as long as Izzy keeps his cool and just keeps touching Perriera, he will eventually fall, with no standing 8 count to save him. Either the ref stops it then and there or Izzy goes for ground and pound (which he's actually very creative with).
Now I'm sure you guys are telling yourselves "hey shertard, if Vettori and Cannonier made it to the bell what makes you think Perriera won't", as backwards as this may seem, it's his kickboxing acumen. Once Vettori an Cannonier felt the danger Izzy presented, they shelled up and only used the most basic secure offense. Perriera isn't the type to shell up and go down, truly believing he is the superior kickboxer, je will come forward and continue to try to set up his left hook a variety of ways, which involves maneuvering into Izzy's punching range, again in the much bigger cage:
