Why is Khamzat such a huge favorite over Paulo? (Update: Cashed out bet)

[Baal]

He's currently a -400 favorite

Paulo is big and proven at MW with good takedown defense/striking

Chimaev struggled against former 155lb Burns who got beat by Belal

Am I missing something?

Update:



Update #2:

Decided to cash my bet out because I'm not so confident in Makhachev anymore after reviewing tape. Now I don't particularly care who wins Chimaev vs Costa, hopefully Khumzat gets slept anyway tho

 

[GSPenn1991]

Watch all of khamzats other fights. He literally got hit once in the other 5 fights. Once

 

[nonoob]

Odds are crazy now and will be less as the fight approaches.

 

[mmadeewana]

Even I don't understand this. Paulo is the worst matchup for him at MW.

 

[djason1988]

Khamzat definitely seems like the real deal, but I also think Costa is maybe his l worst matchup in the weight class. Costa has proven exceptionally difficult to takedown, and he absolutely loves a brawl.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Watch all of khamzats other fights. He literally got hit once in the other 5 fights. Once

Khamzat had a big size advantage in most other fights against fighters with shoddy grappling defense.

Costa will be bigger, better striker, great grappling defense.

 

[GSPenn1991]

Khamzat had a big size advantage in most other fights against fighters with shoddy grappling defense.

Costa will be bigger, better striker, great grappling defense.

I think Costa will do better than the 5 I mentioned, but I think it will be a blow out, although khamzat never fights anymore.

 

[Lee_]

The odds may even up some by fight time. Yeah I don't see Khamzat as a big favorite. If he ends up with that big of a gap, Costa will be a great underdog bet.

 

[Travis Alexander]

I will be placing my bet this weekend and posting slip here on the dog. Taking Paulo on this one.

 

[Paul E Gensinger]

Costa fights once a year. He's living off of his performances pre Izzy.
Post Izzy he's looked meh and I don't think he really takes his career seriously.

 

[JoeRowe]

Way too many questions heading into this from both for either to be a huge favorite. I probably play Khamzat if he was -180 ish, but all of the value is on Paulo at this point.

For comparison we just saw Islam smoke Oliveira but Khamzat is a bigger favorite vs Khamzat than Islam in his rematch.

 

[IDGETKTFO]

Too many Kalabeeb fans living vicariously through Hazmat since he is Moose-lem.

 

[Muay Thai #1]

It will be more of a struggle for Khamzat to takedown opponents are MW, it would be nearly as easy as it was at WW

 

[Young Calf Kick]

Cause Paulo sucks? Obvious

 

[Baal]

I will be placing my bet this weekend and posting slip here on the dog. Taking Paulo on this one.

How much u thinking of betting?

I'm considering $500 (will post the slip too)

 

[wildchild88]

Costa looked like shit against a fading Rockhold.

Khamzat would have buried that version of Rockhold in the first.

 

[Lights Out 101]

Costa is the most overrated fighter on the roster currently and has no wins against any active UFC fighters, and he looked like absolute shit against Rockhold and Vettori who have fallen on hard times themselves.

When will you guys learn that big muscles + a troll personality does not equal being a top tier guy? I'm convinced this fight will be a wash.

 

[Travis Alexander]

How much u thinking of betting?

I'm considering $500 (will post the slip too)

Couple thousand. I will post slip Saturday. Going to Vegas for a family thing figure I’ll handle it at the same time.

 

[Azure]

Costa is the most overrated fighter on the roster currently and has no wins against any active UFC fighters, and he looked like absolute shit against Rockhold and Vettori who have fallen on hard times themselves.

When will you guys learn that big muscles + a troll personality does not equal being a top tier guy? I'm convinced this fight will be a wash.

Like Khamzat?

 

[Lights Out 101]

Like Khamzat?

What "like Khamzat"? He's starched everyone he's beaten except for Gilbert, and even then, he still won a convincing decision. People like to discredit that win because he got dropped, like Gilbert didn't do the same thing against Kamaru..

You either need to make a better point or clarify yourself better playboy.