UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Nascimento

[Jasper_RB81]

1U on Esteban Ribovics vs Terrance McKinney O1.5 at +195.

Everyone expects this to go under, which it very well might, but I think there is a descent chance this goes over. Mckinney has good wrestling and Ribovics has zero takedown defence but is tough as nails. I can see at scenario where McKinney has a lot of success with takedowns and ground and pound, but not enough to get Ribovics out of there.

McKinney doesn't strike me as the game planning type, but the takedowns should be part of his game plan.

At descent + money it's worth a shot.

 

[mkess101]

I’m big on Borshchev, Hooper is a grappler but can’t shoot a take down and keep guys down. On the other side we have a pro level kickboxer. Waiting for the props on the KO.

Also gonna bet Ribovics KO. The kid is the next Poirier at 155.

Borschev has shown really terrible instincts when it comes to body positioning in terms of keeping himself upright against ANYONE that hasn't wanted to stand with him. And given his striking prowess, Hooper won't want to at all. Yeah Chase isn't some sort of wrestling wizard but he may not have to be. If he gets ahold of Slava Claus at all, he may be able to wrap him up, snake to his back, and put Borschev in all sorts of trouble.
It's hard to imagine Hoopers camp being anything but him figuring ways to force grappling. The striking disparity is massive and they know it. But so is the grappling one. And Hooper is damn opportunistic if he can get to any sort of grappling exchange at all.

I wouldn't be confident either way on this one.

 

[Thesnake101]

Borschev has shown really terrible instincts when it comes to body positioning in terms of keeping himself upright against ANYONE that hasn't wanted to stand with him. And given his striking prowess, Hooper won't want to at all. Yeah Chase isn't some sort of wrestling wizard but he may not have to be. If he gets ahold of Slava Claus at all, he may be able to wrap him up, snake to his back, and put Borschev in all sorts of trouble.
It's hard to imagine Hoopers camp being anything but him figuring ways to force grappling. The striking disparity is massive and they know it. But so is the grappling one. And Hooper is damn opportunistic if he can get to any sort of grappling exchange at all.

I wouldn't be confident either way on this one.

22% takedown rate vs 36% TDD rate.

Still, I have more faith in Borshchev being able to survive Chase until the round ends than vice versa. He's been at TAM for so long and managed to survive Nazim while on autopilot. Obviously being under Chase is the worse scenario for him, but it's not like Chase is consistently finishing guys early when he gets them there.

Slava's output and accuracy have me thinking he finds the liver early and mauls Hooper.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

22% takedown rate vs 36% TDD rate.

Still, I have more faith in Borshchev being able to survive Chase until the round ends than vice versa. He's been at TAM for so long and managed to survive Nazim while on autopilot. Obviously being under Chase is the worse scenario for him, but it's not like Chase is consistently finishing guys early when he gets them there.

Slava's output and accuracy have me thinking he finds the liver early and mauls Hooper.

I'm also on the Slava side here. As you say he has been with TAM for a long time now and i reckon his takedown defence is a lot better than those 36% suggests. Hooper is just horrible at takedowns and has been for a long time with little to no improvements shown. I haven't bet Slava and I doubt I will, but for me it's Slava or pass i think.

 

[mkess101]

22% takedown rate vs 36% TDD rate.

Still, I have more faith in Borshchev being able to survive Chase until the round ends than vice versa. He's been at TAM for so long and managed to survive Nazim while on autopilot. Obviously being under Chase is the worse scenario for him, but it's not like Chase is consistently finishing guys early when he gets them there.

Slava's output and accuracy have me thinking he finds the liver early and mauls Hooper.

I guess I've just yet to see Borschev show in a fight that any of the TAM grappling pedigree has translated. He just seems to look so lost in terms of how to avoid being controlled. Hooper has filled out a little, and obviously is gonna be hyper focused on making Slava grapple. I don't have any idea what kind of success he'll have, but this is a fight where no way would I want to pay juice on either guy. Both have glaring deficiencies in their games.

 

[magpie878]

Lewis is always (or what FEELS like always) iffy as a favorite. However, despite being taken down multiple times over five rounds to Jailton, Almeida wasn't strong enough to do a whole lot, Lewis really kept a grip on him from bottom.

So.. as much as I'd heard how great a sub guy Nascimento was years ago, he hasn't done anything since 2020. Decisions, including two split. Against low level guys. Had a TKO overturned to a NC. Guess why. Biggest win? His second fight with Don'Tale Mayes? Him, Latifi, and Boser are his last three wins. That's garbage.

I've often, not always, been on the right side of Lewis fights. Certainly a few duds. But I think Lewis is going to win by stoppage here. He's got a pretty good record vs low level HWs.

 

[The Judo Champ]

Lewis is always (or what FEELS like always) iffy as a favorite. However, despite being taken down multiple times over five rounds to Jailton, Almeida wasn't strong enough to do a whole lot, Lewis really kept a grip on him from bottom.

So.. as much as I'd heard how great a sub guy Nascimento was years ago, he hasn't done anything since 2020. Decisions, including two split. Against low level guys. Had a TKO overturned to a NC. Guess why. Biggest win? His second fight with Don'Tale Mayes? Him, Latifi, and Boser are his last three wins. That's garbage.

I've often, not always, been on the right side of Lewis fights. Certainly a few duds. But I think Lewis is going to win by stoppage here. He's got a pretty good record vs low level HWs.

Prior to jailton black beasts bread and butter was koing grapplers. Jailton is way more athletic than most though. Nascimento barely got by mayles in his last fight so this should be easy work for Derrick.

 

[The Judo Champ]

I really like Rebeki by ko/tko and +120 odds. Diego likes to get koed when he can’t get his grappling going. Rebeki is a spark plug who’s great at striking and grappling. I doubt he plans to grapple though when he clearly has an advantage in the striking. Assuming he doesn’t get clipped himself he should spark him early.

 

[The Judo Champ]

Any reason why Aldrich is a slight dog vs Hardy? She should be like a 2.5 -1 fav imo. Hardy had an unexpected resurgence but against awful opposition. Jj has proven to be a reliable gatekeeper if nothing else and Hardy is someone who’s missing a key

 

[sonhow]

I feel like lots of dogs have to be played win or lose.

Johnson-Hadley feels so 50/50 but Johnson is coming of a win over Azat Maksum where it looks like finalyy turned his luck around in the second round. He may lose a striking matchup but homewtown crowd might swing things his way.

JJ for reasons in the previous page

Goff by aggression -why is Waters the favorite? Purely due to size?

Penington if shes anywhere near her best should smack Ricci on the feet.

McKinney hasn't lost to bad fighters. Yes his losses look bad but all of those guys would probably run through Esteban who struggled with Kirk ffs.

Hooper just looks better at lw. More physical. Momentum on his side. Slava survived to draw in his last fight but I could see him get stopped via gnp elbows here.

I want to believe that Robelis does his thing but that 0 in Waldo's ko loss record gives some pause. What if there's a Homer in there ready to strike out on a gassed man?

-Look for all of these "tips" to lose and me to disappear to a cave

 

[guidi]

Definitely seems like Esteban by KO against Terrence, McKinney has shown to slow down massively after the initial first round and he doesn't possess a great chin either. Hopefully props for that drop soon and maybe sprinkle 2nd round. For the main event, I can't see a big reason to back Nascimento here even at dog money. He has not faced anything near the level of competition as Lewis and seems like a fight he will get the KO in the first or second round. The Daukaus Knockout has not aged well and we saw what Lewis did to him. The Mayes rematch was pretty sloppy for Rodrigo and any prolonged stand up exchanges will end poorly for him.

 

[Thesnake101]

Waldo by decision is +800. I don't think he wins, but if he does then it's probably via that route.

 

[mkess101]

Waldo by decision is +800. I don't think he wins, but if he does then it's probably via that route.

The way Despaigne fights? He's trying to take off his opponents head with everything he throws. I cannot imagine he'd be able to even stand up if somehow the fight goes past rd 2.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

McKinney hasn't lost to bad fighters. Yes his losses look bad but all of those guys would probably run through Esteban who struggled with Kirk ffs.

Esteban isn't a bad fighter, far from it, and he took the best shots of Loik who has similar punching power to McKinney.

McKinney can put anyone away in the first round but he is R1 or bust imo. I think the most likely outcome is Esteban putting McKinney away in the second round after experiencing some adversity in the first.

I know Veronica has been looking better lately but does she have any of the fire power required to keep JJ at bay or stop her in her tracks?
Remember JJ throws heat actually very well, her problems mostly are on the defensive strking end.

JJ lost to Sabina Mazo who is similar to Hardy but significantly slower. The speed and combos of Lipski gave Aldrich a lot of trouble and I expect a similar result here. Hardy is not as fast as Lipski but its similar.

Hardy has spotty conditioning though so I expect JJ to win the third round at a high clip but skillswise she doesn't do anything better than Hardy while both are fresh so I expect JJ to lose the first two rounds and thus the fight.

 

[Thesnake101]

The way Despaigne fights? He's trying to take off his opponents head with everything he throws. I cannot imagine he'd be able to even stand up if somehow the fight goes past rd 2.

Fair, but Waldo is the only decision loss Mo Dereese has. Wouldn't be surprised if he tried to work the clinch for most of the fight.

 

[mkess101]

Fair, but Waldo is the only decision loss Mo Dereese has. Wouldn't be surprised if he tried to work the clinch for most of the fight.

I'd be shocked if Despaigne allowed himself to be clinched without disengaging and throwing bombs. He looks reckless, and against really skilled guys he's gonna get countered and put away. But I don't think Waldo is the guy. And I definitely don't seea scenario where he's able to go deep into a fight unless he totally changes his style.

 

[sonhow]

Esteban isn't a bad fighter, far from it, and he took the best shots of Loik who has similar punching power to McKinney.

McKinney can put anyone away in the first round but he is R1 or bust imo. I think the most likely outcome is Esteban putting McKinney away in the second round after experiencing some adversity in the first.



JJ lost to Sabina Mazo who is similar to Hardy but significantly slower. The speed and combos of Lipski gave Aldrich a lot of trouble and I expect a similar result here. Hardy is not as fast as Lipski but its similar.

Hardy has spotty conditioning though so I expect JJ to win the third round at a high clip but skillswise she doesn't do anything better than Hardy while both are fresh so I expect JJ to lose the first two rounds and thus the fight.

Good points though I say Mazos fighter image was a bit higher when she beat JJ to a point that I was impressed with JJ even in loss actually. It was pretty much 50/50 with Maxos thai game proving the difference in eyes of judges if I recall corrctly. And JJ was taking it to her in open space.
Veronica is fast so she probably wins the first though but will that hold for at least two rounds...Could be very tight decision.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Robelis Despaigne is the best striker to EVER grace the UFC heavyweight division. He’s the only Olympian striker to EVER compete in UFC. Every other Olympian was grappling based.

WAY more dangerous than pillow fisted Gane
WAY better technique than windmill Ngannou
WAY faster than Pavlovich/Lewis
WAY more output than Rozenstruik
WAY bigger than EVERYONE

Robelis Despaigne will be champion next year. The first Cuban champion. I dont see anyone beating him. I know it doesn’t make sense now, but you guys will see. I dont wanna hear shit about Aspinall, the same guy who panic wrestled against geriatric Arlovski because he was getting pieced up. Tom knocks out a stuck in the mud Pavlovich, you guys are so impressed. The standards are laughably low

 

[mkess101]

Robelis Despaigne is the best striker to EVER grace the UFC heavyweight division. He’s the only Olympian striker to EVER compete in UFC. Every other Olympian was grappling based.

WAY more dangerous than pillow fisted Gane
WAY better technique than windmill Ngannou
WAY faster than Pavlovich/Lewis
WAY more output than Rozenstruik
WAY bigger than EVERYONE

Robelis Despaigne will be champion next year. The first Cuban champion. I dont see anyone beating him. I know it doesn’t make sense now, but you guys will see. I dont wanna hear shit about Aspinall, the same guy who panic wrestled against geriatric Arlovski because he was getting pieced up. Tom knocks out a stuck in the mud Pavlovich, you guys are so impressed. The standards are laughably low

Lotta super high level TKD guys to beat out to make the Cuban national team LOL?

He's fast and powerful, but he wings punches the same way you described Ngannou. Aspinall's boxing is leagues better, and Aspinall has the same speed. Maybe more. Plus, it's MMA and Tom can grapple so...

Edit: To be clear, I'm on Despaigne to KO Salsa Boy this weekend. My biggest play is him to cover his fantasy score. But let's pump the brakes a second on him beating Aspinall LOL.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Lotta super high level TKD guys to beat out to make the Cuban national team LOL?

He's fast and powerful, but he wings punches the same way you described Ngannou. Aspinall's boxing is leagues better, and Aspinall has the same speed. Maybe more. Plus, it's MMA and Tom can grapple so...

Edit: To be clear, I'm on Despaigne to KO Salsa Boy this weekend. My biggest play is him to cover his fantasy score. But let's pump the brakes a second on him beating Aspinall LOL.

Well obviously now Aspinall will win. Yes, Tom is a little faster and has better boxing. But he’s not a better striker. Aspinall’s striking looks good because of the grappling threat. Despaigne is more dynamic and flexible. His reach is much longer than Aspinall. He also has way more star potential.

Im glad you agree that Salsa Boy is not a competitive fight. There are people who are picking Cortes because he’s more proven. The matchmakers and oddsmakers know the reality