I might look stupid in retrospect here, but I feel like we are getting a really good price on Denise Gomes.
I know a lot of people are on the Hill side and the odds have come down significantly, but I don't agree here.
Hill has played spoller quite a few times in the past and this could certainly be Hill giving Gomes a vet lesson, but I don't think so.
Hill likes fights that are contested on the feet at kickboxing range where she can dictate the pace and outpoint her opponents with higher volume and pace. However, when she is pressured on the feet and taken down she doesn't react well.
Look at her last fight. Dern was coming at Hill with high pressure swinging wild punches on the feet and Hill was tagged on multiple occasions and didn't look comfortable at all. When she was taken down she didn't really have a good answer. She is not at all threatening from her back and she struggled to get back up.
I think this fight could actually play out a bit similar, which I know sounds weird since Dern and Gomes are very different fighters.
I think Gomes will pressure with big punches, then crash in to clinch against the cage where it will be fairly even. Gomes will then either go for a takedown or they will break away... rinse and repeat.
Gomes will land the harder punches on the feet and the slightly higher volume of Hill will not be enough to make up for it. Gomes will also imo have some success with her takedowns and ground game. Gomes has shown that she does have descent cardio so I don't expect the pace of the fight to significantly change over time.
I also question Hill durability at this point. She was seriously rocked both by Dern and by Lupita. I think the age is starting to show.
All in all I think these odds are pretty generous, I took a 2U shot on Gomes ML @-116.