Economy stonks v27: banks, the kings of vega
- Thread starter rob mafia
- Start date
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2022
- Messages
- 4,075
- Reaction score
- 7,214
Added some HD myself at $281 and some change. Also added some CDNS with a tight stop if it dips under the trendline.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2006
- Messages
- 24,747
- Reaction score
- 51,775
- Joined
- Oct 13, 2012
- Messages
- 21,325
- Reaction score
- 33,479
Buffett still buying OXY, damn. Interestingly, he's now buying at a higher price than he previously was. Previously he would only buy if the price dropped below the $59.62 level of the warrants.
...
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) +0.2% in early trading Thursday following Warren Buffett's latest increase in his stake in the oil and gas producer.
The transaction, which occurred on October 25, saw Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) buy more than 3.92M common shares, bringing its total Occidental (OXY) holdings to more than 228M shares.
The stock was purchased at $62.83 each, bringing Occidental (OXY) to 4.11% of Buffett's portfolio and lifting his stake in the company to 25.78%.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) now controls nearly $14.4B worth of Occidental (OXY) common shares, $8.5B of preferred stock with an 8% dividend, and ~83.9M warrants to buy OXY common shares at $59.62 each.
Warren Buffett said at Berkshire's (BRK.A) (BRK.B) annual meeting in May that he does not seek control of Occidental (OXY), even as Berkshire has won regulatory approval to buy as much as 50% of the company.
...
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) +0.2% in early trading Thursday following Warren Buffett's latest increase in his stake in the oil and gas producer.
The transaction, which occurred on October 25, saw Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) buy more than 3.92M common shares, bringing its total Occidental (OXY) holdings to more than 228M shares.
The stock was purchased at $62.83 each, bringing Occidental (OXY) to 4.11% of Buffett's portfolio and lifting his stake in the company to 25.78%.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) now controls nearly $14.4B worth of Occidental (OXY) common shares, $8.5B of preferred stock with an 8% dividend, and ~83.9M warrants to buy OXY common shares at $59.62 each.
Warren Buffett said at Berkshire's (BRK.A) (BRK.B) annual meeting in May that he does not seek control of Occidental (OXY), even as Berkshire has won regulatory approval to buy as much as 50% of the company.
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2022
- Messages
- 4,075
- Reaction score
- 7,214
Getting destroyed today. Wiped out all my recent gains.
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2022
- Messages
- 4,075
- Reaction score
- 7,214
- Joined
- Jun 15, 2007
- Messages
- 20,589
- Reaction score
- 7,779
I looked at my account today and saw a huge V shape dump and recovery. Suffice to say a huge part of my portfolio is made of AMD. AMD dipped 4.5% after hours with earnings call. Pumps and dumps are normal for earnings but this is a real strange one. Battle of algos I guess
- Joined
- Oct 13, 2012
- Messages
- 21,325
- Reaction score
- 33,479
Buffett's continual purchases whenever it drops definitely gives the stock a solid floor.
- Joined
- Oct 13, 2012
- Messages
- 21,325
- Reaction score
- 33,479
- Reported revenues of $4.9 billion, up 12 percent; organic revenues* up 9 percent
- GAAP operating margin up 80 bps; adjusted operating margin* up 130 bps
- GAAP continuing EPS of $2.74; adjusted continuing EPS* of $2.79, up 23 percent
- Organic bookings* up 8 percent, led by Americas Commercial HVAC, up 14 percent
- $6.9 billion backlog, up 7 percent, and 2.5 times historical norms
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2022
- Messages
- 4,075
- Reaction score
- 7,214
I bought some C, BAC, HD, F and a few other stocks around the time you were talking about buying HD. So far all of them have been in the green except for F. Wound up selling C and BAC today because I'm thinking they're going to bounce off the trendline and take another leg on down.
- Joined
- Oct 13, 2012
- Messages
- 21,325
- Reaction score
- 33,479
I never use any sort of technical analysis for buying and selling. I agree with Buffett when he said "I realized that technical analysis didn't work when I turned the chart upside down and didn't get a different answer."
But you should have made a nice little profit on BAC if you were buying around when I did. With an average cost-per share of $25.44 I'm up 7.82% on it right now.
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2022
- Messages
- 4,075
- Reaction score
- 7,214
I took a bit of a hit lately so I figured I'd grab some profits on a good day. What do you prefer to use for your enter and exit strategies?
I got out at an average of 6% give or take. Still holding on to TSLA, Schwab and a few others.
Feel free to point and laugh at me if BAC and C are still climbing upward by the middle of next week.
- Joined
- Oct 13, 2012
- Messages
- 21,325
- Reaction score
- 33,479
I just use good old fashioned Ben Graham style fundamental analysis. Go through the financial statements, pay extra close attention to certain figures: operating earnings growth, cash flow, shares outstanding, % of sales for their products, cash and debt, dividends + dividend growth, book value for companies where that's relevant, profit margins, etc.
Where does it historically trade at? If over the last 10 years, it trades at an average of 15x earnings, but now it's at 8x earnings, why is that? Maybe something is actually wrong with the company, and its future prospects have taken a nosedive, or maybe people are just being overly pessimistic, and you've got a solid company available at a nice discount. If I think it's trading at a material discount to intrinsic value, I'm in.
You don't need advanced math skills to be a good investor. Temperament is far more important. Ben Graham's "Mr. Market" allegory is probably the single most important piece of investing advice anyone will ever receive.
As Buffett once wrote:
"Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.
Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market’s quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions, he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.
Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn’t mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.
But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don’t belong in the game. As they say in poker, “If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.”
Ben’s Mr. Market allegory may seem out-of-date in today’s investment world, in which most professionals and academicians talk of efficient markets, dynamic hedging and betas. Their interest in such matters is understandable, since techniques shrouded in mystery clearly have value to the purveyor of investment advice. After all, what witch doctor has ever achieved fame and fortune by simply advising “Take two aspirins”?
The value of market esoterica to the consumer of investment advice is a different story. In my opinion, investment success will not be produced by arcane formulae, computer programs or signals flashed by the price behavior of stocks and markets. Rather an investor will succeed by coupling good business judgment with an ability to insulate his thoughts and behavior from the super-contagious emotions that swirl about the marketplace. In my own efforts to stay insulated, I have found it highly useful to keep Ben’s Mr. Market concept firmly in mind.
Following Ben’s teachings, Charlie and I let our marketable equities tell us by their operating results – not by their daily, or even yearly, price quotations – whether our investments are successful. The market may ignore business success for a while, but eventually will confirm it. As Ben said: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” The speed at which a business’s success is recognized, furthermore, is not that important as long as the company’s intrinsic value is increasing at a satisfactory rate. In fact, delayed recognition can be an advantage: It may give us the chance to buy more of a good thing at a bargain price."
Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market’s quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions, he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.
Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn’t mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.
But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don’t belong in the game. As they say in poker, “If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.”
Ben’s Mr. Market allegory may seem out-of-date in today’s investment world, in which most professionals and academicians talk of efficient markets, dynamic hedging and betas. Their interest in such matters is understandable, since techniques shrouded in mystery clearly have value to the purveyor of investment advice. After all, what witch doctor has ever achieved fame and fortune by simply advising “Take two aspirins”?
The value of market esoterica to the consumer of investment advice is a different story. In my opinion, investment success will not be produced by arcane formulae, computer programs or signals flashed by the price behavior of stocks and markets. Rather an investor will succeed by coupling good business judgment with an ability to insulate his thoughts and behavior from the super-contagious emotions that swirl about the marketplace. In my own efforts to stay insulated, I have found it highly useful to keep Ben’s Mr. Market concept firmly in mind.
Following Ben’s teachings, Charlie and I let our marketable equities tell us by their operating results – not by their daily, or even yearly, price quotations – whether our investments are successful. The market may ignore business success for a while, but eventually will confirm it. As Ben said: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” The speed at which a business’s success is recognized, furthermore, is not that important as long as the company’s intrinsic value is increasing at a satisfactory rate. In fact, delayed recognition can be an advantage: It may give us the chance to buy more of a good thing at a bargain price."
Something super important I also look for is a moat. Take two of my largest holdings: Union Pacific and Mastercard.
Union Pacific has a duopoly on the western 2/3rds of the country with Burlington Northern Santa Fe. They're not going to build more rails. Those days are done. You're not going to get new entrants, and something like trucking, with our roads falling into disrepair and the congestion on them etc, just can't even come close to competing. It's essentially a bellwether for the U.S. economy.
Mastercard is much the same. It, for all intents and purposes, holds a duopoly with Visa. There are some other smaller players, like American Express and Discovery. They benefit greatly from the network effect; the more consumers that use it, the more attractive it becomes for merchants, which makes it more convenient for consumers, etc. Mastercard has, essentially, universal acceptance. The network effect and sizeable cost advantage that comes from its massive size make it very hard to disrupt.
I generally buy and hold forever, adding on dips. I've held Berkshire, Union Pacific and Mastercard for well over 10 years at this point. First bought UNP early in 2010, for example. But I also do some shorter-term trading, with a very small amount of my portfolio. Doing it right now with BAC. BAC is not really something I'm interested in holding long-term, but I also view it as very oversold currently, and you get a nice dividend while you wait for it to correct.
Occasionally, I'll invest on some scuttlebutt, riding the waves of sentiment. I did that recently with NVO and LLY. By every metric they're absurdly expensive, but people are really losing their minds over their weight-loss drugs. This trade worked out, but I definitely don't want to make a habit of investing...or more accurately, speculating, this way, because it's very high-risk.
- Joined
- Oct 13, 2012
- Messages
- 21,325
- Reaction score
- 33,479
UPS looks attractive on the surface, but it could be a bit of a value trap:
- They recently narrowly avoided a strike, and the workers received very substantial pay increases.
- post-covid we're getting a decent return to brick and mortar shopping
- Amazon is finding more cost-effective ways to handle distribution than relying on UPS.
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2022
- Messages
- 4,075
- Reaction score
- 7,214
Thanks, really good stuff there. Mr. Market can definitely get you buying high and selling low if you're too reactive to day to day ups and downs. Seems like the right move in the moment and then once the dust has settled you're left wondering what you were even thinking.
Good thinking with UNP and MC. Haven't really thought of either company in that way but it makes a hell of a lot of sense. I need to start studying more on fundamental analysis because chart analysis works overall for me but I think at a lower success rate than fundamental probably would.
Good call on NVO and LLY as well. Those are the types of moves I always wind up kicking myself in rear for because I don't think about them until it's too late. LMT was just pure luck for me. I think I bought some shares right before you talked about it on here, loaded up on a couple more after you posted about them and then they exploded with the Israel news.
- Joined
- Oct 13, 2012
- Messages
- 21,325
- Reaction score
- 33,479
And...sold! At $29.875. 4.94% gain since Oct. 23rd. Which is 394.43% annualized. I'm also entitled to the November dividend, which will be paid Nov. 7th. With that included it becomes a 5.55% gain, and 500.16% annualized. Not bad for messing around with some boring p shares for a few days.
Similar threads
Latest posts
-
-
Elections Joe Biden NOT on Ohio Ballots - Republicans Could Keep Him Off- Latest: Jack V Savage
-
