Elections Serious Question: Why are Biden and Trump Going to win the Primaries?

[Law Talkin’ Guy]

I want to preface this post by saying the question asked in the thread title is not rhetorical. I’m not American, I’m Canadian. We do not have anything equivalent to primaries here for choosing the leaders of our political parties. If a Canadian wants a say in who will lead their party (and with it, the ability to have a say in who will be prime minister if the party wins the election) then they have pay to join a party, go to a party convention and then vote in a leadership race, which depending on a political party’s bylaws can only come every once in a very long time.

So as an outsider looking in, the primaries look amazing - the ability for all Americans to have a say in who will be their party’s nominee in the general election for president. So given this amazing opportunity and privilege, why is it a veritable certainty that Biden and Trump are going to be their party’s respective nominees again?

When I look at Trump dominating the primaries so far I don’t really get it. I understand that Trump is extremely popular with his ride or die base, but I’m surprised that there doesn’t seem to be a majority or even sizeable minority of Republican voters that don’t want him and would rather have any other Republican governor, Senator or Congressman running. Leaving aside the issue as to whether or not Trump was a good president or not during his first term it just strikes me as odd that people would think that perhaps someone else without all the baggage might be preferable. Yet Trump is slaughtering his opponents without even lifting a finger, having sat out all the debates. Like am I just underestimating how many republicans are actually all-in on Trump, or is it a case of only Trump’s supporters even participating in primary voting.

Now, as for Biden, I never understood how he got the nomination in 2020 in the first place, but why is he seemingly not being challenged by anyone else from the party this time? His popularity isn’t good, and the guy’s cognitive ability is frankly terrifying in my opinion. It would seem to be that he should be easily beatable by some other democrat politicians, but he doesn’t seem to be facing any major challenges.

So yeah, as a non-American I don’t understand how four years later it’s a veritable certainty that Americans are going to be left with only these two awful candidates to vote for in November. How or why did we get here?

 

[K1levelgrappler]

America is a diseased dog that needs to be put down and its leadership is reflective of this.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Short answer is that it's mostly elections (some caucuses) and other people don't agree with you.

Longer answer is that Biden won in 2020 largely on the strength of perceived moderation and electability. And then incumbents are pretty much automatic in the primary, especially when they're doing a great job, as Biden is. Trump won in 2016 on celebrity and on ditching a lot of unpopular GOP policy commitments (rhetorically--no actual change in approach after he won, except with a greater emphasis on personal enrichment and avoidance of accountability). And then the election trutherism has primary voters mostly looming at him like he's the incumbent.

 

[My Spot]

1. Incumbent presidents just don't get primary'd.
2. Kayfabe.

 

[HereticBD]

On Biden's end, he's the incumbent. I don't know where people got this idea that holding primaries for an incumbent is totally normal, but it's not. Their guy is the President. They don't normally(if ever) toss that aside and start over. I think this notion began with Trump in 2020, because Liberals were screeching that he was afraid to be challenged, by people who weren't the President and looking for clout on the internet. It's so silly. The party holding primaries to challenge their current President is not normal. You'd have to be one hell of a dickhead to piss your party off to that extent.

On Trump's end, he's popular and a whole lot of people want him to be President. You don't have to like it, but it is what it is.

 

[Sweater of AV]

Nothing surprising about Biden since he's the incumbent. It would be a huge mess if the democrats tried to go with something other than him. His steadily declining mental capabilities are probably a big concern though.

Dump is an anomaly. People like to hear him say stupid things and a lot of people seem to identify with a fat donkey that likes McDonald's and bankruptcy. It's strange but that's life.

 

[LangfordBarrow]

P

I want to preface this post by saying the question asked in the thread title is not rhetorical. I’m not American, I’m Canadian. We do not have anything equivalent to primaries here for choosing the leaders of our political parties. If a Canadian wants a say in who will lead their party (and with it, the ability to have a say in who will be prime minister if the party wins the election) then they have pay to join a party, go to a party convention and then vote in a leadership race, which depending on a political party’s bylaws can only come every once in a very long time.

So as an outsider looking in, the primaries look amazing - the ability for all Americans to have a say in who will be their party’s nominee in the general election for president. So given this amazing opportunity and privilege, why is it a veritable certainty that Biden and Trump are going to be their party’s respective nominees again?

When I look at Trump dominating the primaries so far I don’t really get it. I understand that Trump is extremely popular with his ride or die base, but I’m surprised that there doesn’t seem to be a majority or even sizeable minority of Republican voters that don’t want him and would rather have any other Republican governor, Senator or Congressman running. Leaving aside the issue as to whether or not Trump was a good president or not during his first term it just strikes me as odd that people would think that perhaps someone else without all the baggage might be preferable. Yet Trump is slaughtering his opponents without even lifting a finger, having sat out all the debates. Like am I just underestimating how many republicans are actually all-in on Trump, or is it a case of only Trump’s supporters even participating in primary voting.

Now, as for Biden, I never understood how he got the nomination in 2020 in the first place, but why is he seemingly not being challenged by anyone else from the party this time? His popularity isn’t good, and the guy’s cognitive ability is frankly terrifying in my opinion. It would seem to be that he should be easily beatable by some other democrat politicians, but he doesn’t seem to be facing any major challenges.

So yeah, as a non-American I don’t understand how four years later it’s a veritable certainty that Americans are going to be left with only these two awful candidates to vote for in November. How or why did we get here?

TR7MP pretty much attacks his opponents to the death to stifle his competition. Biden is a white traditional politician that can appeal enough to whites and blacks that he can beat TR7MP. We have a 2 party system that has it's drawbacks as well as an Electoral College system that has it's drawbacks.

Voting for these guys is all shits and giggles until we finally end up collapsing the normal order of things and that New World Order comes about. That's when Americans are really going to rue this useless political one upsmanship, and probably the rest of the world too, when it's China or some other totalitarian country that becomes the world leader.

 

[DEVILsSON]

What you fail to understand is that 100k Americans are essentially deciding recent elections.

Winning the popular vote is irrelevant. You have to win the electoral votes and those come down to super thin margins.

So far the independents have not weighed in as a whole. Right now you have life long Republicans and Democrats chiming in. I suspect it will be repeat of 2020. It won't be because Biden is a mental giant or did a great job, it will be because the alternative is unpalatable to the average middle of the road American.

I suspect many moderate Americans are also cognizant of Roe v Wade being repealed and it will also be a factor. Most Americans are not the social conservatives that Trump feigns to be.

 

[Law Talkin’ Guy]

Well even if it’s abnormal to challenge an incumbent in a primary, given his current approval ratings and concerns about his age you’d think Biden would be the exception for democrats to worry about his ability to do the job for four more years, till he’s 86.

 

[jk7707]

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[560ti]

Well even if it’s abnormal to challenge an incumbent in a primary, given his current approval ratings and concerns about his age you’d think Biden would be the exception for democrats to worry about his ability to do the job for four more years, till he’s 86.

I think it's a combination of even with his approval being low it's still higher than any other potential democrat challenger + having him step down kind of undermines the party and the term (stepping down could realistically be viewed as we as a party didn't do a good enough job the last 4 years )

 

[Sweater of AV]

Well even if it’s abnormal to challenge an incumbent in a primary, given his current approval ratings and concerns about his age you’d think Biden would be the exception for democrats to worry about his ability to do the job for four more years, till he’s 86.

They don't really care about the entire term, just up to the election. Biden's approval rating isn't the key point, it's how he stacks up against Trump. His approval rating could be really low but what really matters is whether voters would rather have him than Trump. They are playing with fire right now though.

His mental issues are a pretty big concern but you'd divide and weaken the party by trying to put someone else in there. It would have to someone who's an absolute powerhouse with an actual chance of winning in that scenario. Voters like familiarity and pretty much anyone else will likely lose to Trump.

At this point, they're just going to roll with what they've got because the alternative isn't really any better.

Yes, it's a sad state of affairs in American politics.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Another aspect of this is that people want "the parties" to do something about the popularity of candidates they don't like, but they act like people dropping out and endorsing a candidate or the mostly powerless national committee vaguely favoring one candidate over another is inherently illegitimate. Maybe the people who want Democrats or Republicans to try to engineer another candidate winning aren't the same as the people who are outraged about mild examples of that, but it seems to me that they are. People should pick one: Party leadership should take a greater role in the nomination process or they shouldn't. The reality is that they don't and can't, but I think they should.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

On the right, what did any candidate propose that wasn’t Trump policy, just with a weaker voice, outside of wanting to fund Ukraine, gain of function, and standard US policy.

 

[Mr. Shickadance]

Biden is the incumbent and the republicans have been lost ever since bush, he really damaged the party so much that only the lowest of the low support it.

 

[nostradumbass]

Trump is a combination of a protest vote against the Washington lifers running an autopilot state, which is why the more they wield the unelected bureaucracy against him, the more popular he gets, and some who would rather have more of a career politician type or a liberal republican, but recognize that there are too many of the former so they'd rather be on board with the winner.

For Biden, he's the incumbent, but it doesn't really make any difference because democrats are more subservient and will vote for whoever they're told to.

 

[Mr Holmes]

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[LangfordBarrow]

Well even if it’s abnormal to challenge an incumbent in a primary, given his current approval ratings and concerns about his age you’d think Biden would be the exception for democrats to worry about his ability to do the job for four more years, till he’s 86.

Not that there are that many alternatives but put a minority or woman in his place and the Democrats might lose too many votes to win. If TR7MP is the Republican nominee age also doesn't make as much of a factor as it's a couple of old gaffe machines going against each other.

 

[UFCUCF]

As U.S. citizen, and lawyer who dabbles in election law, I share your enthusiasm for the Presidential primary process. I think it is a quite amazing that the most powerful country in the history of the world elects a leader AND that since there are two very evenly matched political parties someone who can manipulate the process in one party can be, basically, a coin flip from the West Wing.

Unless the parties have tightened the rules, one could theoretically get their parties’ nomination with only a plurality of primary votes. Actually, with uncommitted voting at conventions after the 2nd ballot, someone could emerge without having won a single vote in any of the primaries! You could cause that by running a few regionally or demographically popular candidates who were just popular enough to stop the top primary vote getters from taking the majority of the committed delegates on the first ballot or two.

If you have several million dollars and a few friends in high places, call me.

 

[MicroBrew]

Because out of 182.7 million Americans over the age of 35 we couldn't find anyone else.