Aspinall won't make it out of the second round.

[cade187]

I think Pav is way too sloppy. He obviously has a ton of power, but I think Aspinall has his way with him by having superior technique.

 

[Bruce Lee666]

 

[welcometohavoc]

Tom is a legit prospect but this is too much too soon for him. He has only faced one elite striker before, Volkov, and he did run through Volkov with a quick submission, to give him credit, but the threat Sergei poses on the feet is next level. Volkov is a gangly striker who likes to kick and punch from range and doesn't have much of a grappling game (although he has improved that side of things since they fought.) Sergei is 4" shorter while just as heavy, has 4" longer reach than Volkov and 6" longer than Tom, and just TKOed the best wrestler in the division in the first round (the same one Aspinall wrecked his knee on).

If that's what Pav did to Blaydes how do you think Aspinall is going to take him down? Don't even underestimate Sergei's grappling, he started training wrestling at 5 and has been working hard on it.

Tom is 2" taller and one year younger than Sergei. They are about the same weight. He is a talented athlete, fast despite his size and with dynamic striking but also with a very legit sub game. He has never had a fight get out of the second round as he has explosive striking with both accuracy and power, however he also has effective take downs and can finish quickly on the ground as well. I am in no way underestimating Aspinall's talent.

With that being said I don't think even Aspinall's biggest fan thinks he can win this fight standing. His gameplan is obviously going to be to survive on the feet long enough to get to the clinch or takedown. Easier said than done - 2018 Overeem finished Sergei with ground strikes but Aspinall isn't 2018 Overeem and Sergei has evolved since then.

Pav has exceptional MMA boxing - hand speed, accuracy, volume, pressure, power, timing, intelligent combinations, his management of distance plus his freakish reach - he scores highly in all categories and is almost impossible to prepare for. We haven't seen a lot of his grappling in the UFC because no one has been able to impose it on him and Aspinall will be no exception. Tom is no dunce on the feet and his size, speed and athleticism will buy him a little time but once Pav starts zeroing in and those accurate combos start landing Tom won't be able to handle it, he will crumble quickly. Sergei Pavlovich TKO in either the first or second round.

You're overlooking the fact that the grappling disparity at HW is massive.

Aspinal is a well rounded fighter and a much better wrestler than Pavlovich

 

[xhaydenx]

People forget How Good Reem are he's a Legendary Fighter and a Legend, How many guys in UFC can control a Monster like Lesnar in the Clinch ? Overeem have nights that he appear to fight as a Fucking Monster he made a fast Job in Pav and Lesnar.

Yeh, he beat Pav and Lesnar because both of those guys don't have good wrestling.

Lesnar outwrestled past it Randy who was too small, Mir who can't wrestle and is more of a BJJ guy, Carwin who he couldn't outwrestle until Carwin had beat the absolute stuffing out of him for a round and gassed, and Mark Hunt who can't wrestle.

It took nothing for Reem and Cain to outwrestle him.

 

[Poirierfan]

Aspinall will finish him in under 3 rds. Infact, I think Aspinall wins in the 2nd by head and arm choke.

 

[codfather]

People forget How Good Reem are he's a Legendary Fighter and a Legend, How many guys in UFC can control a Monster like Lesnar in the Clinch ? Overeem have nights that he appear to fight as a Fucking Monster he made a fast Job in Pav and Lesnar.

It's funny you should mention Overeem. I reckon in an openweight scenario, the best MMA fighters born in Europe, excluding Eastern Europe are easily:

1. Gane - France
2. Aspinall - UK
3. Overeem - UK
4. Gustafsson - Sweden

 

[spinup]

Tom is better everywhere.

I think so too, but the match up is bad for him especially on short notice.

His tendency to keep his chin up and hands down is a huge liablity against an accurate power puncher with a 6" reach advantage over him.
And I would think Aspinall will be hesitant to leg kick after his injury.

 

[Ajax41]

Tom is a legit prospect but this is too much too soon for him. He has only faced one elite striker before, Volkov, and he did run through Volkov with a quick submission, to give him credit, but the threat Sergei poses on the feet is next level. Volkov is a gangly striker who likes to kick and punch from range and doesn't have much of a grappling game (although he has improved that side of things since they fought.) Sergei is 4" shorter while just as heavy, has 4" longer reach than Volkov and 6" longer than Tom, and just TKOed the best wrestler in the division in the first round (the same one Aspinall wrecked his knee on).

If that's what Pav did to Blaydes how do you think Aspinall is going to take him down? Don't even underestimate Sergei's grappling, he started training wrestling at 5 and has been working hard on it.

Tom is 2" taller and one year younger than Sergei. They are about the same weight. He is a talented athlete, fast despite his size and with dynamic striking but also with a very legit sub game. He has never had a fight get out of the second round as he has explosive striking with both accuracy and power, however he also has effective take downs and can finish quickly on the ground as well. I am in no way underestimating Aspinall's talent.

With that being said I don't think even Aspinall's biggest fan thinks he can win this fight standing. His gameplan is obviously going to be to survive on the feet long enough to get to the clinch or takedown. Easier said than done - 2018 Overeem finished Sergei with ground strikes but Aspinall isn't 2018 Overeem and Sergei has evolved since then.

Pav has exceptional MMA boxing - hand speed, accuracy, volume, pressure, power, timing, intelligent combinations, his management of distance plus his freakish reach - he scores highly in all categories and is almost impossible to prepare for. We haven't seen a lot of his grappling in the UFC because no one has been able to impose it on him and Aspinall will be no exception. Tom is no dunce on the feet and his size, speed and athleticism will buy him a little time but once Pav starts zeroing in and those accurate combos start landing Tom won't be able to handle it, he will crumble quickly. Sergei Pavlovich TKO in either the first or second round.

SERGEI WONT MAKE IT OUT OF THE SECOND ROUND!!!!!!

 

[Leinster Rugby]

Maybe.

I'm going with Aspinall though. He has more ways to win and he's an intelligent fighter.

 

[Pancake Sprawl]

maybe if he stays striking, but on the ground i have to imagine Aspinall is a lot better than Pavlovich, even if Sergei has improved that aspect of his game since the Overeem fight. even on the feet, he could hurt Pavlovich too. it's just Aspinall looks more vulnerable defensively than Pavlovich does standing.

 

[The_Renaissance]

Tom is a legit prospect but this is too much too soon for him. He has only faced one elite striker before, Volkov, and he did run through Volkov with a quick submission, to give him credit, but the threat Sergei poses on the feet is next level. Volkov is a gangly striker who likes to kick and punch from range and doesn't have much of a grappling game (although he has improved that side of things since they fought.) Sergei is 4" shorter while just as heavy, has 4" longer reach than Volkov and 6" longer than Tom, and just TKOed the best wrestler in the division in the first round (the same one Aspinall wrecked his knee on).

If that's what Pav did to Blaydes how do you think Aspinall is going to take him down? Don't even underestimate Sergei's grappling, he started training wrestling at 5 and has been working hard on it.

Tom is 2" taller and one year younger than Sergei. They are about the same weight. He is a talented athlete, fast despite his size and with dynamic striking but also with a very legit sub game. He has never had a fight get out of the second round as he has explosive striking with both accuracy and power, however he also has effective take downs and can finish quickly on the ground as well. I am in no way underestimating Aspinall's talent.

With that being said I don't think even Aspinall's biggest fan thinks he can win this fight standing. His gameplan is obviously going to be to survive on the feet long enough to get to the clinch or takedown. Easier said than done - 2018 Overeem finished Sergei with ground strikes but Aspinall isn't 2018 Overeem and Sergei has evolved since then.

Pav has exceptional MMA boxing - hand speed, accuracy, volume, pressure, power, timing, intelligent combinations, his management of distance plus his freakish reach - he scores highly in all categories and is almost impossible to prepare for. We haven't seen a lot of his grappling in the UFC because no one has been able to impose it on him and Aspinall will be no exception. Tom is no dunce on the feet and his size, speed and athleticism will buy him a little time but once Pav starts zeroing in and those accurate combos start landing Tom won't be able to handle it, he will crumble quickly. Sergei Pavlovich TKO in either the first or second round.

I am rooting for Tom but see him losing in round 1. Its HW mma where one is all it takes and Sergey is the epitome of only needing one. Tom needs to hit an immediate takedown IMO but Sergey isn't a bad grappler defensively either. Rooting hard for Tom but think this is a bad one for him

 

[Killer Kadoogan]

short notice fight is going to be short notice worthy. at worst, he gets smoked Volk style. At best, he loses Usman style.

 

[davidlemonparty]

Aspinall will finish him in under 3 rds. Infact, I think Aspinall wins in the 2nd by head and arm choke.

What is this, women's bantamweight

 

[Poirierfan]

What is this, women's bantamweight

That's an odd thing to say, I don't get it.

 

[Deceasedxo]

Sergei has no grappling though. If this was boxing/kickboxing maybe. But there's a better than good chance Tom grapple fucks him.

 

[Stixx]

Based on all that I’ve seen/read about Aspinall, I have a feeling that he might show us all a different level of striking tonight. I would never sleep on that, everyone seems to think that he’s something special, and grappling-wise we know that he’s a beast. This fight is so interesting because Sergei, on the other hand, is such a powerhouse, and well-rounded too.
I’m getting JDS vs Cain vibes from this fight - possibly the two best HWs in the world right now going at it (counting out Jones - will we ever see him fight again?) and I have no idea who is going to take it. Rooting for Aspinall, but this is as close to 50/50 for me as it gets.

 

[Stixx]

Sergei has no grappling though. If this was boxing/kickboxing maybe. But there's a better than good chance Tom grapple fucks him.

Cain Velasquez thinks otherwise. Sergei is a problem for strikers and grapplers alike.

 

[KBE6EKCTAH_CCP]

Tom is a legit prospect but this is too much too soon for him. He has only faced one elite striker before, Volkov, and he did run through Volkov with a quick submission, to give him credit, but the threat Sergei poses on the feet is next level. Volkov is a gangly striker who likes to kick and punch from range and doesn't have much of a grappling game (although he has improved that side of things since they fought.) Sergei is 4" shorter while just as heavy, has 4" longer reach than Volkov and 6" longer than Tom, and just TKOed the best wrestler in the division in the first round (the same one Aspinall wrecked his knee on).

If that's what Pav did to Blaydes how do you think Aspinall is going to take him down? Don't even underestimate Sergei's grappling, he started training wrestling at 5 and has been working hard on it.

Tom is 2" taller and one year younger than Sergei. They are about the same weight. He is a talented athlete, fast despite his size and with dynamic striking but also with a very legit sub game. He has never had a fight get out of the second round as he has explosive striking with both accuracy and power, however he also has effective take downs and can finish quickly on the ground as well. I am in no way underestimating Aspinall's talent.

With that being said I don't think even Aspinall's biggest fan thinks he can win this fight standing. His gameplan is obviously going to be to survive on the feet long enough to get to the clinch or takedown. Easier said than done - 2018 Overeem finished Sergei with ground strikes but Aspinall isn't 2018 Overeem and Sergei has evolved since then.

Pav has exceptional MMA boxing - hand speed, accuracy, volume, pressure, power, timing, intelligent combinations, his management of distance plus his freakish reach - he scores highly in all categories and is almost impossible to prepare for. We haven't seen a lot of his grappling in the UFC because no one has been able to impose it on him and Aspinall will be no exception. Tom is no dunce on the feet and his size, speed and athleticism will buy him a little time but once Pav starts zeroing in and those accurate combos start landing Tom won't be able to handle it, he will crumble quickly. Sergei Pavlovich TKO in either the first or second round.

I agree. I don’t think Aspinal is in the same strength and resistance than Sergei.

 

[TheWobbler]

Tom needs to use his wrestling and BJJ. Don't get in to a firefight.

 

[markantony20]

If that's what Pav did to Blaydes how do you think Aspinall is going to take him down?

Idk maybe he’ll actually try to take him down instead of shooting a half committed takedown.