Bellator 288: Friday, November 18, Chicago

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https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/92067-bellator-288-pitbull-vs-nurmagomedov
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/68524

Bellator 288
Nemkov vs. Anderson 2
Friday 11.18.2022 at 06:00 PM ET
U.S. Broadcast: Showtime
Prelims: YouTube

Location: Chicago, Illinois

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https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...-288-jaylon-new-breed-bates-vs-jornel-a1-lugo

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Jaylon Bates is now +165. IMO he's got an even shot of winning, so I had to put something down even if I don't have a ton of confidence.

Jaylon Bates (+165) $100.00 to win $165.00
 
Passing on Jaylon unless he gets into the +200 range. He arguably lost to a can last time out.

Only reason line isn't wider is because Lugo had nothing for Danny, but him and Bates are in different places atm.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Passing on Jaylon unless he gets into the +200 range. He arguably lost to a can last time out.

Only reason line isn't wider is because Lugo had nothing for Danny, but him and Bates are in different places atm.
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IIRC his performance before that was a bit of a letdown too.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
IIRC his performance before that was a bit of a letdown too.
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Wouldn't be shocked by that. He fights like a much less confident AJ McKee without the striking threat.

There's some flashes of brilliance there, but his overall performances against competent fighters leave a lot to be desired. Kinda shocked they put him against Lugo tbh.
 
All the lines are out, Lugo moved to a -205 fav over Bates and I expect that line to get steeper. Gonna pass on that one for now. Sorta interested in putting Hokit on a prelim parlay alongside some of the guys getting fed, haven't taped yet but I suspect Isaiah will be able to grind out the other guy.

Mota and Faraldo could be some nice parlay legs as well, though Kyllis is a flake. He's facing a very inexperienced guy though, so this could be one of the fights where he looks like a killer. Fortune is unplayable at -300 imo, same with Usman here even though he should win. Interested in Nemkov as a dog if odds keep climbing.

Anyone have a read on Otto vs Ashkabov? Khasan's got a lot of hype and a gaudy record, but he also has a recent loss to a journeyman so I don't know if he's deserving of being a moderate fav.
 
Thesnake101 said:
All the lines are out, Lugo moved to a -205 fav over Bates and I expect that line to get steeper. Gonna pass on that one for now. Sorta interested in putting Hokit on a prelim parlay alongside some of the guys getting fed, haven't taped yet but I suspect Isaiah will be able to grind out the other guy.

Mota and Faraldo could be some nice parlay legs as well, though Kyllis is a flake. He's facing a very inexperienced guy though, so this could be one of the fights where he looks like a killer. Fortune is unplayable at -300 imo, same with Usman here even though he should win. Interested in Nemkov as a dog if odds keep climbing.

Anyone have a read on Otto vs Ashkabov? Khasan's got a lot of hype and a gaudy record, but he also has a recent loss to a journeyman so I don't know if he's deserving of being a moderate fav.
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Only issue I have with Otto is he's insanely inactive. I'm holding fire on this one. I think the odds will get longer for Otto as the week goes on.

I'm also thinking Patricky might be worth a stab if the odds get much higher. Usman looks to have all the potential in the world, but this is an enormous step up in competition.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Only issue I have with Otto is he's insanely inactive. I'm holding fire on this one. I think the odds will get longer for Otto as the week goes on.

I'm also thinking Patricky might be worth a stab if the odds get much higher. Usman looks to have all the potential in the world, but this is an enormous step up in competition.
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It is a big step-up, but Patricky seems like a pretty good matchup for Usman on paper. If the over is good odds I'll hit it tho, don't think either guy gets finished.
 
I’m having a hard time seeing Brennan not running over Talavera. The kid’s fantastic and this is a squash match.
 
I think Patricky is getting into playable territory. I'm probably going to sit to see just how high it goes but we're talking 5.0 on a guy who's 8-2 in his last 10 with one loss being an avenged cut stoppage in a fight he was winning and the other being against a really good fighter in an unfamiliar surrounding. Usman's best win is Chris Gonzalez who is nowhere near as good as Patricky and it's not like he crushed Mike Hamel who is the only other half decent fighter he's fought.

Now he might be the real deal and he might smash Patricky, but I think those odds are getting to the stage where it's worth playing the known commodity over the potential.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I think Patricky is getting into playable territory. I'm probably going to sit to see just how high it goes but we're talking 5.0 on a guy who's 8-2 in his last 10 with one loss being an avenged cut stoppage in a fight he was winning and the other being against a really good fighter in an unfamiliar surrounding. Usman's best win is Chris Gonzalez who is nowhere near as good as Patricky and it's not like he crushed Mike Hamel who is the only other half decent fighter he's fought.

Now he might be the real deal and he might smash Patricky, but I think those odds are getting to the stage where it's worth playing the known commodity over the potential.
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Hey, do you know anything about the guys fighting Hokit and Mota? Trying to see if it's worth to throw those two in as favorites for my parlay or not. Bellator law dictates that no matter how many can crushes there are in a card, at least 1 prelim will have an underdog dominate.

Think Kyllis is probably the one who'd lose simply due to how flaky he is.
 
You didnt ask me, but here's my thoughts. Neither Hokit or Mota are trustworthy as favourites. Hokit has decent wrestling but he got starched in 10 seconds in his debut. Chin could be paper and his opp isn't good but seems fairly athletic. If Pacheco was a bigger dog I would play him vs Mota, just not enough meat on the bone for me at current prices.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Hey, do you know anything about the guys fighting Hokit and Mota? Trying to see if it's worth to throw those two in as favorites for my parlay or not. Bellator law dictates that no matter how many can crushes there are in a card, at least 1 prelim will have an underdog dominate.

Think Kyllis is probably the one who'd lose simply due to how flaky he is.
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Pacheco is very raw, talented but makes a lot of mistakes in the fights I've seen on him and puts himself in shit positions etc. I think Killys should win.

Nader might be worth a look, a guy with two sub wins against an inexperienced wrestler.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Pacheco is very raw, talented but makes a lot of mistakes in the fights I've seen on him and puts himself in shit positions etc. I think Killys should win.

Nader might be worth a look, a guy with two sub wins against an inexperienced wrestler.
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Nader being a sub guy is actually why I'm kinda interested in Hokit tbh. Could see him playing guard to a decision loss.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Nader being a sub guy is actually why I'm kinda interested in Hokit tbh. Could see him playing guard to a decision loss.
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Maybe, but part of me also thinks a wrestler with 2 fights and no ammy career could get subbed.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I think Patricky is getting into playable territory. I'm probably going to sit to see just how high it goes but we're talking 5.0 on a guy who's 8-2 in his last 10 with one loss being an avenged cut stoppage in a fight he was winning and the other being against a really good fighter in an unfamiliar surrounding. Usman's best win is Chris Gonzalez who is nowhere near as good as Patricky and it's not like he crushed Mike Hamel who is the only other half decent fighter he's fought.

Now he might be the real deal and he might smash Patricky, but I think those odds are getting to the stage where it's worth playing the known commodity over the potential.
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Is there something about Nurmagomedov’s game that you’re seeing or is this just a play based on principle?

I get that sometimes odds get so long and basically have to play them, but with a match like this principles won’t keep Patricky upright and I don’t expect he’s going to hit a sub from guard.
 
Shelter said:
Is there something about Nurmagomedov’s game that you’re seeing or is this just a play based on principle?

I get that sometimes odds get so long and basically have to play them, but with a match like this principles won’t keep Patricky upright and I don’t expect he’s going to hit a sub from guard.
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He's not going to sub him from guard, but it's whether he can catch him coming in, or keep getting back up over 5 and maybe Usman starts to gas a bit.

It's more based on Usman being an unproven commodity than anything really concrete though. We don't really know Usman's weaknesses because realistically he hasn't fought a top 100 lightweight yet.
 
Made a +1000 parlay with a bunch of the prelims + Faraldo to win. Only excluded Hokit, Newman and Aliev.

Only 3 legs I'm sorta worried about are Mota ML, u1.5 for Laird/can and u1.5 for Colgan/can. Would've excluded them, but that's pretty much where all the value comes from, lol. Still mulling over Otto, hoping odds get longer on him.
 
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