Spain Sees Signs That Tide Is Turning in Catalonia
Central government believes hard-line response to the region’s independence push is succeeding
By Simon Nixon | Nov. 12, 2017
MADRID—One of the first things a visitor to Madrid will notice these days is the Spanish flags festooned from balconies across the capital, something that usually only ever happens when the national football team is playing in a major tournament.
The same is true in other Spanish cities. It is a mark of how the crisis triggered by the regional government in Catalonia’s decision to hold an independence referendum that was illegal under the Spanish constitution and subsequently declare independence has reawakened previously dormant Spanish nationalism, including among the 54% of Catalans who according to a recent poll oppose independence.
A flag that for historic reasons had until now been seen by some Spaniards as divisive is being embraced as a symbol of national unity and defiance against what many regard as unfair criticism of Spain’s response to the referendum in parts of the international media.
Underestimating the strength of feeling that the push for independence would provoke among pro-Spanish Catalans and elsewhere in Spain was just one of a series of misjudgments by Catalonia’s separatist leaders, five of whom including the former president, Carles Puigdemont, are now in exile in Belgium. Eight others are being held in prison on charges of sedition, rebellion and misuse of public funds.
Many Spaniards regard Catalan independence as an existential issue for the country: the breakaway of one of the nation’s richest regions would be sure to lead to demands for independence by other regions as Spain’s budgetary arrangements unraveled.
The belief that Catalonia is like the capstone in an arch—remove it and the country will fall apart—has ensured Madrid strong public backing for its hard-line efforts to respect the constitution and rule of law, which have included imposing direct rule on Catalonia and calling new regional elections to be held on December 21.
Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy waved to the audience during an event in Barcelona on Sunday
The Catalan separatist leadership also failed to anticipate the economic damage caused by their independence bid. Since October 1, when it briefly looked as if the Spanish state had lost control, 2,276 businesses representing 85% of the region’s market capitalization and 36.5% of regional gross domestic product have quit Catalonia, shifting their legal domicile elsewhere in Spain, according to the Spanish business lobby group Circulo de Empresarios.
In particular, the region’s two biggest banks,
CaixaBank and Sabadell, have shifted their headquarters in a bid to reassure depositors. These moves will erode Catalonia’s tax base, particularly if jobs and ancillary services follow. Indeed, speaking at a rally in Barcelona over the weekend, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy urged businesses to remain in Catalonia to avoid inflicting further damage on the region.
Thirdly, the Catalan leadership misjudged the international reaction to their independence bid. They had been banking on support from other European Union countries who they hoped would act as intermediaries with Madrid. But while the Catalan separatists have won some popular sympathy internationally following scuffles with police on the day of the referendum and following the jailing of the Catalan leadership, not a single foreign government has recognized Catalonia’s declaration of independence.
Instead, EU governments in particular have lined up behind Madrid in insisting that this is an internal Spanish issue that must be resolved in full respect of the Spanish constitution and the rule of law. In particular, the EU has signaled that an independent Catalonia couldn't count on automatic entry to the EU or membership of the eurozone: for other EU member states, many of which also face separatist threats, this is also an existential issue.
Madrid is cautiously optimistic that thanks to these miscalculations, the separatists are losing momentum and that pro-independence parties will fail to win a majority in the Catalan parliament in December’s elections.
Spanish ministers note that the imposition of direct rule and the arrest of the Catalan leadership hasn’t led to widespread disorder as some had predicted. They are also hopeful that the failure of the three pro-independence parties to reach an agreement to form an alliance for the elections as they did in 2015 reflects tactical splits among the separatists.
They also believe that the separatist cause was damaged by the admission by Catalan parliament speaker Carme Forcadell in a bail hearing last week that she regarded the declaration of independence as “symbolic” and would in future agree to respect Spanish law.
Madrid believes that even if the three pro-independence parties win a majority of seats in the parliament—which recent polls suggest is possible even though the combined support for pro-independence parties may remain below 50% as it was in 2015—that not all the parties will be willing to continue the current confrontation.
The crucial question is what will happen if pro-independence parties do win a majority and opt to continue the confrontation or push ahead with another referendum.
Spanish ministers are reluctant to contemplate such a scenario, but they note that Catalonia will remain under direct rule from Madrid, giving the government full control of Catalan budgets and institutions until a new Catalan leadership is chosen and could be reimposed if at any point that leadership refused to abide by Spanish law.
What’s certain is that Madrid won’t back down in its defense of Spain’s constitution and territorial integrity—indeed, the flags flying from Spanish balconies suggest most Spaniards would expect nothing less.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/spain-sees-signs-that-tide-is-turning-in-catalonia-1510524920