Economy CBC: "this is not the jobs report of a weak economy"

Andy Capp

2GM/c2 Belt
@Titanium
Joined
Aug 20, 2009
Messages
41,304
Reaction score
22,269
The latest jobs report is great news for Canada.


"The Canadian economy gained 90,000 jobs in April, much higher than the average of 20,000 jobs many economists were predicting for the latest Labour Force Survey numbers from Statistics Canada.

The federal agency pinned the increases in employment on part-time work, with more than 50,000 more of those types of positions. Statistics Canada also pointed out that private sector employment went up in April after "four months of little change."

There were more jobs in the professional, scientific and technical services industries. As well, employment for those aged 15 to 24 went up by 40,000 in April, the first monthly increase for that demographic since December 2022."

"...The employment rate, or the percentage of the population that is employed, was also steady at 61.4 per cent, which StatsCan pointed out comes after six consecutive months of drops. That rate was also nearly one per cent lower in April 2024 than the year before, as population growth in Canada was higher than employment growth."

"...These numbers come after a loss of 2,200 jobs in March, with that month's unemployment rate showing the largest increase since summer 2022.

The Bank of Canada will be taking this data into account as it determines whether it will change interest rates in a decision next month.

Many economists widely expect Canada's central bank to lower its trend-setting policy rate sometime this summer, though April's consumer price index data measuring inflation will heavily influence that decision."



They admit there are some details that detract from the great news, e.g. in New Brunswick the unemployment rate remained unchanged as full time job gains were offset by part time job reductions. On the other hand, the unemployment rate in PEI and Nova Scotia fell by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively. The national unemployment rate remained unchanged, showing job growth is matched by population growth.

So, overall it's great news and a hopeful sign our economic slump might finally end.

I'm no economist, but if this continues i think it would signal an end to the near zero GDP growth lately. The Bank of Canada needs to reduce the prime rate sooner rather than later, IMHO and then things would improve even further and more rapidly--although I understand one could argue it might trigger further inflation; again I'm not an expert so I won't argue that's untrue. Still, I suspect it would do more good than harm.

Now, it's hard to imagine anyone would suggest the Canadian economy is outperforming that of the US right now. Let's hear from the "our economy is shit and everyone is suffering" people to try and explain that apparent contradiction.
 
"Within these numbers is strong employment growth but also still strong population growth," CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham told CBC News, explaining why the unemployment rate was stable despite higher job growth.

A slight pause in a 6 month downtrend, during which there was historic unprecedented population growth, is not the W you think it is.
 
A slight pause in a 6 month downtrend, during which there was historic unprecedented population growth, is not the W you think it is.
What are you talking about? It's pretty much the win I said it is. I explained in the OP that there are some caveats to the data but it's still good news overall. Do you dispute that?

"...The employment rate, or the percentage of the population that is employed, was also steady at 61.4 per cent, which StatsCan pointed out comes after six consecutive months of drops. That rate was also nearly one per cent lower in April 2024 than the year before, as population growth in Canada was higher than employment growth."

So yeah, it's not necessarily the Greatest Economic Report Ever but it's not terrible either.
 
Last edited:
Seasonally adjusted, and the student worker sugar rush. Does it continue in May - Sept? Capping the international student acceptance should see a lowering in unemployment. But do we see a bump in GDP? Do we see an increase in productivity? Domestic investors returning? Lowering of Household Debt to Income ratio?
 
What are you talking about? It's exactly the win I think it is. I explained in the OP that there are some caveats to the data but it's still good news overall. The "slight pause in a 6 month downtrend" just means that population growth caught up with job creation. That represents an increase in GDP growth, don't you think?

Lmao so all we have to do is let in almost 1,000,000 people a year and we can have a tiny bit of GDP growth? Your model is broken.
 
Everybody get ready for the absolute meltdown Andy is about to have in this thread yelling at everyone that doesn't agree with him.
What part of "I'm no expert but this is what I think" did you have trouble understanding? Go ahead, disagree and see what happens.

So far, has there been one cogent rebuttal? All I see is whining and snark from sad people with no ability to rebut the OP. It reminds me of this:
 
That's the big question, of course, as I mentioned in the OP. I guess we'll see but I'm optimistic that it will.

Well you're decreasing population growth by capping international students and reducing their ability to work here, but April / May are historically sugar rush months due to seasonal factors for Part time workers and real estate. However, productivity per worker is down, business insolvency is up, domestic investment down, so to me this seems like a net zero trend line leading to continuing rising unemployment rates.

Luckily the cdn dollar sucks and US economy is doing well so we are still seeing decent exports. But this is knife edge economy in Canada.

Not to mention household debt to income ratio is so off we are seeing slowed customer spending, worries about debt servicing and the big question mark about how are covid buyers going to be able to refinance.
 
Seasonally adjusted, and the student worker sugar rush. Does it continue in May - Sept? Capping the international student acceptance should see a lowering in unemployment. But do we see a bump in GDP? Do we see an increase in productivity? Domestic investors returning? Lowering of Household Debt to Income ratio?
Well HH debt isn't going anywhere. It's also the highest in the G7. GDP is apparently only positive because of our immigration numbers and we have a huge lack of productivity issue.

And if Trudeau's capital gains tax increase happens it will definitely not attract foreign investors.

So we'll see.
 
Well you're decreasing population growth by capping international students and reducing their ability to work here, but April / May are historically sugar rush months due to seasonal factors for Part time workers and real estate. However, productivity per worker is down, business insolvency is up, domestic investment down, so to me this seems like a net zero trend line leading to continuing rising unemployment rates.

Luckily the cdn dollar sucks and US economy is doing well so we are still seeing decent exports. But this is knife edge economy in Canada.

Not to mention household debt to income ratio is so off we are seeing slowed customer spending, worries about debt servicing and the big question mark about how are covid buyers going to be able to refinance.
Well, that latter part is precisely why I argue the Bank of Canada has waited too long to reduce interest rates.

Edit: we take far too many international students. The reliance upon them for revenue is a bad thing. And there's no good evidence that I've see that they remain in Canada after they finish school so they're kind of irrelevant to long term growth as far as I know.
 
Well HH debt isn't going anywhere. It's also the highest in the G7. GDP is apparently only positive because of our immigration numbers and we have a huge lack of productivity issue.

And if Trudeau's capital gains tax increase happens it will definitely not attract foreign investors.

So we'll see.

It's not going anywhere but the question is when does the income growth stall and DSR become an issue? And then what happens when current business insolvency, weak growth and reducing customer spending all collide?
 
Well, that's precisely why I argue the Bank of Canada has waited too long to reduce interest rates.

Uhhh you and the vast majority of Canadians but they still haven't seen enough markers to do so in April and there's still no certainty they will in the summer.
 
Uhhh you and the vast majority of Canadians but they still haven't seen enough markers to do so in April and there's still no certainty they will in the summer.
They are saying this jobs report will make it less likely a June cut happens...
 
Uhhh you and the vast majority of Canadians but they still haven't seen enough markers to do so in April and there's still no certainty they will in the summer.
Perhaps, but I'm not arguing that just because I don't like it. I think raising the interest rates in the first place did very little good and a lot of harm because one knock-on effect from the pandemic was a very large number of people with lots of savings due to not having any place to spend them. In the US, rates came down fairly quickly, consumers spent lavishly, and the economy recovered faster than any other nation on Earth, pretty much. Canada, on the other hand, kept rates high and as a result, as of the last count I saw, Canadians have a cumulative $75 billion in savings right now. I presume the reason they're being tight with money is the uncertain future of the economy with such high interest rates in play.

Do you have a better reason for the difference between the results in Canada and the US?
 
Back
Top