International Coronavirus Breaking News, v13: Over 21,000 Healthcare Workers From Around The U.S Heading To N.Y

[War Machine]

"A Million N95 Masks Are Coming From China—on Board the New England Patriots’ Plane"
Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-mill...rd-the-new-england-patriots-plane-11585821600

"At 3:38 a.m. Wednesday morning, the New England Patriots’ team plane departed from an unusual locale: Shenzhen, China. On board the Boeing 767, in the cargo hold that used to be home to Tom Brady’s duffel bags, were 1.2 million N95 masks bound for the U.S."

 

[Tycho- Taylor's Version]

No, I don't think influenza is the reason they tested negative, I just think their symptoms matched SARS-CoV2, and that's why they were tested. I think they tested negative, even after they were exposed (and I realise there are different levels of exposure, but not 80 out of a 100 if you know what I mean), because a (large) percentage of them were immune to SARS-CoV2 (but apparantly not influenza; no clue if they are linked in any way to immune responses). I'm just trying to find an explanation for the 1-in-5 positive tests, in 5 countries using the same stringent testing guidelines. You would expect a higher positive count, right?

BTW: this has been really fucking informative for me, so thank you so much for taking the time to respond in such detail!

Why would you expect a higher positive count? The symptoms are very unspecific and people will be incentivized to get tested when they present (probably, hopefully).

 

[Wadtucket]

people will be incentivized to get tested when they present (probably, hopefully).

Sadly not true in most places.

 

[Tycho- Taylor's Version]

Sadly not true in most places.

Yea... fuck.

 

[Gomi1977]

Sorry, misunderstood you there. Maybe you're right, but mostly if you present with flu symptoms to hospital you will just get a flu swab to quickly rule out Influenza. That is a lot easier to do than a kung flu test at the moment. Might be different routines in different countries though.


There could be a lot of reasons for this. One is that data is not recorded accurately, another is that some of the tests have shown to have low sensitivity (infected patients test negative), I've seen numbers of like 50-75% false negatives. Different testing standards, etc, etc. Do we know that 80% of the tests are negative across the board?

Yeah, across the board, for the different regions in Italy and the provinces in The Netherlands. It's just such a weird, low number. And yeah, the other logical explanation would be false negatives, but that should have implications for the infection rate, since they would be "allowed" to go back into the population and start spreading again. And that doesn't match any numbers I'm seeing. The only number that would match, is my hypothethical that we're already (almost) at the apex of this thing, and that the speed of its spread, is what's causing hospitals and ICUs to overflow. We had this happen in The Netherlands during the flu-epidemic of 2018 as well, just not as bad (16000 hospitalisations and 9400 fatalities in 18 weeks; we're now at ~6000 hospitals in barely 5 weeks).

 

[Sano]

I'm sorry, I should have sourced my data: https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/CBS/nl/dataset/70895ned/table?fromstatweb

And what I think is shown in the graph below, is that for the whole of 2020 so far, we have had a flu-epidemic, and we're still above twice the threshold for that, which would show an above average (4400+ deaths) seasonal flu-epidemic.

As for the lower total of deaths so far and the lockdown measures; those went into effect March 16, which was week 12, and that week, most measures were still largely ignored, as far as shopping, gatherings, social distancing, etc. So what I think/ hope I'm seeing, is more evidence for my theory that we're at the apex of this TOTAL outbreak right now, and that we'll start seeing numbers drop quite rapidly by late next week in The Netherlands (Holland is only two provinces btw, North-Holland (where Amsterdam is) and South-Holland (where The Hague (my hometown) and the seat of government is, and the International Courts!)).
Btw, I got 758 COVID-19-deaths in week 13. With the AVERAGE of the 2018-flu being 522/ week, I again feel strengthened in my hope of this being the peak of it. And it really is hope, the other numbers are just too depressing (>100K deaths).

The Netherlands it is from now on! Here in Denmark we call the whole country Holland, that's why I stuck to it. So far, I think that you're right that it's closer to the apex than predicted. I can't imagine it'll go as high as 100.000 or even close to it, I think there was clearly something wrong with the initial data, especially considering a lot of the sources are changing their data and finding errors, not to mention Wuhan numbers initially being unreliable.

With that said, I think the mystery of 20% test-positive rate, while it does seem like an implausible coincidence as well as a mystery of why they were tested in the first place (and likely had symptoms) yet tested negative, might have a greater variety of factors involved. One explanation could be vastly larger spread, one could be flu season, yet one could be faulty testing (albeit that would still make 20% across the board implausible), one could be people getting tested with milder symptoms, or even presenting symptoms due to psychosomatism, and one could be axillary access to test (like we've seen plenty examples of in the US with athletes, rich people and politicians who are asymptomatic). I know that you have looked into varies criteria, and that most had to be either healthcare workers or had severe symptoms, but here in Demark for instance if you work in healthcare related fields, you can get tested being asymptomatic. What I am saying is, that I think it's a little too early to draw definitive conclusions yet. But you very well might be right. I definitely agree that much more are likely infected than currently estimated, and it seems that is what we are hearing more and more as well.

I think the rate of growth of the COVID-19 deaths in week 15 and 16 will reveal most of it. We'll see!

 

[b34stmode]

"A Million N95 Masks Are Coming From China—on Board the New England Patriots’ Plane"
Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-mill...rd-the-new-england-patriots-plane-11585821600

"At 3:38 a.m. Wednesday morning, the New England Patriots’ team plane departed from an unusual locale: Shenzhen, China. On board the Boeing 767, in the cargo hold that used to be home to Tom Brady’s duffel bags, were 1.2 million N95 masks bound for the U.S."

Why in the world would be accepting mask from the Country that started this entire ordeal, and has already sent out faulty mask to other Country's?

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Brazil is pretty fucked up. Damn.

Not only they are about 1K new cases daily but apparently some cementery workers were interviewed and say that the amounts of deaths is way bigger. In that particular case they went from 30 graves per day to 60.
In the meantime Bolsonaro keeps lobbying against social distancing and quarantines.
Brazil has a population over 200 millions and there are really highly densed areas where this virus can do a lot of damage.



In the meanwhile Argentinian government was doing everything pretty well but today they fucked up. Central Bank ordered banks to open today so old and poor people can cash their pensions. Guess what happened?

They had to backpedal a little bit and banks will be open during this weekend, monday and tuesday. They established some criteria (I think it has to do with ID number) to divide people in different groups so each one has its own day.

The outrage from media and even from the president has been pretty harsh.

They are talking about gradually lifting quarantine after april 12 (that would make 4 weeks of full quarantine).

 

[superpunch]

I was listening to Eddie Bravo and he made a really good point. He pointed out that I can't recall a single event or thing going on in the world or the country (USA) from the past month. What the fuck else has happened and is happening in the past month? What would the big stories be otherwise?

 

[Wadtucket]

Yeah, across the board, for the different regions in Italy and the provinces in The Netherlands. It's just such a weird, low number. And yeah, the other logical explanation would be false negatives, but that should have implications for the infection rate, since they would be "allowed" to go back into the population and start spreading again. And that doesn't match any numbers I'm seeing.

If you present with fever, cough, and similar symptoms, your instructions would probably be to quarantine at home regardless of test results. Most places I know of put restrictions on symptoms rather than test results. For example, if you work in a hospital in NYC, you are allowed back 72 hours after your last fever. You don't have to test negative to go back to work. Also, you don't have to test positive to be pulled off your shifts. So you wouldn't necessarily see much higher rates of infections due to false negative tests.

The only number that would match, is my hypothethical that we're already (almost) at the apex of this thing, and that the speed of its spread, is what's causing hospitals and ICUs to overflow. We had this happen in The Netherlands during the flu-epidemic of that year as well, just not as bad (16000 hospitalisations and 9400 fatalities in 18 weeks; we're now at ~6000 hospitals in barely 5 weeks).

The apex is region-specific. Maybe you're right about that in the Netherlands, seems to follow the timeline of when nearby spots with similar measures hit their peak.

 

[Sano]

totally, this is a great thread.

despite disagreeing with you on many issues I find your contributions to this thread very informative.

Thanks man. You've been a likewise pleasant and informative influence. It's nice not to be so combative all the time.

 

[Yagadot]

How did the wildlife trade cause a global coronavirus pandemic?

 

[Gomi1977]

The Netherlands it is from now on! Here in Denmark we call the whole country Holland, that's why I stuck to it. So far, I think that you're right that it's closer to the apex than predicted. I can't imagine it'll go as high as 100.000, I think there was clearly something wrong with the initial data, especially considering a lot of the sources are changing their data and finding errors, not to mention Wuhan numbers initially being unreliable.

With that said, I think the mystery of 20% test-positive rate, while it does seem like an implausible coincidence as well as a mystery of why they were tested in the first place (and likely had symptoms) yet tested negative, might have a greater variety of factors involved. One explanation could be vastly larger spread, one could be flu season, yet one could be faulty testing (albeit that would still make 20% across the board implausible), one could be people getting tested with milder symptoms, or even presenting symptoms due to psychosomatism, and one could be axillary access to test (like we've seen plenty examples of in the US with athletes, rich people and politicians who are asymptomatic). I know that you have looked into varies criteria, and that most had to be either healthcare workers or had severe symptoms, but here in Demark for instance if you work in healthcare related fields, you can get tested being asymptomatic. What I am saying is, that I think it's a little too early to draw definitive conclusions yet. But you very well might be right. I definitely agree that much more are likely infected than currently estimated, and it seems that is what we are hearing more and more as well.

I think the rate of growth of the COVID-19 deaths in week 15 and 16 will reveal most of it. We'll see!

Yes, weeks 15 and 16 will bevery interesting to see. And what will happen once we slowly start to ease the measures, if we go back up, I was wrong, if not, well, let's just hope so...

 

[Jfrizzle]

I just wanted to raise a glass to @Gomi1977 , @Sano and @Wadtucket, when he's not shitposting, for all of their insightful contributions and number crunching in this thread. Most of which is way over my head but is wonderful to read and learn from. Cheers gentlemen!!

 

[Deleted member 539235]

a bump in deaths in liverpool uk
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/another-19-coronavirus-death-takes-18037622

The number of deaths in Liverpool of people who have tested positive for coronavirus has jumped up again to go above 40.

After having only one death recorded for several weeks, yesterday the Royal Liverpool Hospital trust recorded a sudden jump of 21 coronavirus deaths.

Today has seen another large rise in deaths for the city trust, with 19 more recorded, meaning the city's total now stands at a grim 41.

The NHS England data shows that the city experienced two particularly distressing days of late, with nine deaths recorded on March 29 and another nine recorded on April 1.

In reality, it is likely that there will be more deaths of people who have had coronavirus in the city.

These figures only relate to people who have been tested after arriving in hospital.

Just this week, six people have sadly died in a Liverpool care home where there is a suspected outbreak of the virus, it is unlikely that these statistics will be included in the NHS update.

also why the fuck was there a footie match on 11th of march?!
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fan-ill-three-weeks-18040344



yes, that is 3000 spanish fans

 

[War Machine]

Why in the world would be accepting mask from the Country that started this entire ordeal, and has already sent out faulty mask to other Country's?

That is a good question.
I'm sure the masks will go through some type of inspection after arriving in the U.S.
Now the whole Patriots plane is infected with the virus...

 

[Ophydian]

That’s the one thing Trump got right. He failed epically in not preparing resources, and in downplaying the seriousness of this. Now we lack PPE and medical supplies.

Thanks?


MS isn't the problem, it's the medication that stops the attacks that is the problem (immune system attacks nerves, medication weakens immune system to lower chances of attack).

I'm in London, everything is fine, symptoms are pretty annoying but I believe I will recover.

But seriously, thank you

Sorry had to add a little humor.

 

[Sano]

Brazil is pretty fucked up. Damn.

Not only they are about 1K new cases daily but apparently some cementery workers were interviewed and say that the amounts of deaths is way bigger. In that particular case they went from 30 graves per day to 60.
In the meantime Bolsonaro keeps lobbying against social distancing and quarantines.
Brazil has a population over 200 millions and there are really highly densed areas where this virus can do a lot of damage.



In the meanwhile Argentinian government was doing everything pretty well but today they fucked up. Central Bank ordered banks to open today so old and poor people can cash their pensions. Guess what happened?

They had to backpedal a little bit and banks will be open during this weekend, monday and tuesday. They established some criteria (I think it has to do with ID number) to divide people in different groups so each one has its own day.

The outrage from media and even from the president has been pretty harsh.

They are talking about gradually lifting quarantine after april 12 (that would make 4 weeks of full quarantine).

Thanks for keeping us up to date. Brazil seems like it could blow up, hopefully it wont.

Yes, weeks 15 and 16 will bevery interesting to see. And what will happen once we slowly start to ease the measures, if we go back up, I was wrong, if not, well, let's just hope so...

For what it's worth man, I think you are way closer to being right than wrong.

I just wanted to raise a glass to @Gomi1977 , @Sano and @Wadtucket, when he's not shitposting, for all of their insightful contributions and number crunching in this thread. Most of which is way over my head but is wonderful to read and learn from. Cheers gentlemen!!

 

[Ophydian]

One thing about diet is that it becomes a habit. A ton of people eat at resturants because its a habit. Now that they have broken the habit, it might be slow to come back.

oh then fatties are still gobbling up fast food.

 

[Gomi1977]

Why would you expect a higher positive count? The symptoms are very unspecific and people will be incentivized to get tested when they present (probably, hopefully).

Because we're testing, it seems, as little people as possible. Less than 80K to date (since Feb. 27th). And it's still really difficult to get tested here, you need to have symptoms beyond of what your general practicioner would handle. That's what makes it so weird.