I know this is probably a typical alpha thing to think
At this point, I'm not sure if a serious answer is actually going to matter, but here goes anyway:
In general, I've come to believe toughness > experience > size > technique, but a greater disparity lower down can overcome a lesser disparity higher up.
If two people are trying to hurt each other and one of them can endure punishment without breaking mentally or physically, that person is probably going to come out ahead.
If someone has great technique in the gym or on the stage, but hasn't had experience with what adrenaline does to fine motor control or sensory perception, they're probably going to lose to someone who does.
If two people of at all similar skill square off, the bigger guy with more weight and more reach is probably going to win unless he's noticeably slower or has a glass jaw.
Taking a fight to the ground is one of the worst things an untrained big dude can do. Size obviously matters in both grappling and striking: MMA, boxing, MT, wrestling, and BJJ all have weight classes, but the smaller guys are more likely to win 'absolute' divisions in grappling than striking. Back when MMA had open-weight fights, they were won by the bigger person and/or by the better grappler.
Starting a fight out by giving up one's reach and height advantages is more sporting than smart.