EASY money to be made: Francis at +125

[dog y]

You are not very, very informed. And you should never, ever give anyone betting advice again.

It's ok. Let him give advice. If anyone ever follows this fool, they surely deserve the loss.

 

[GeneTunney7]

Yah, anyone else shocked that Big Frank is the dog? He was the favorite but the odds trended in favor of Gane. I am assuming recency bias, Frank's troubles with the UFC and that sparring tape resulted in the line trending towards Gane. Frank is a completely different fighter than when he fought Black Beast, he is mad hard to finish, this will be a kick boxing match unlike the 1st stipe loss and Frank only needs to connect once - Gane may win but I think Frank should be favored.

 

[youngsteinel]

Actually.... You postulated two very disparate opinions....

Francis is either @ -150/-200 or -900.... Pick one.... You can't have it both ways mate.

Ignorant troll gonna troll right?

Do you guys actually think I said this? Do you actually not understand why you're wrong? I think you're actually joking.

Clearly you rode the short bus.

 

[dog y]

TS....

So first you claim that Francis should be a -150 to -200 favorite?

Then you claim Game only has a 10% chance of winning the fight?

The only thing that you have is established is that you are:
An absolute mongoloid who knows absolutely nothing about fight odds

Do you wear a helmet before boarding the short bus every morning?

Hey hey, leave Mongolia out of this mess.

 

[youngsteinel]

It's ok. Let him give advice. If anyone ever follows this fool, they surely deserve the loss.

Will make sure to bump this when I cash on the $500 bet.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

It's ok. Let him give advice. If anyone ever follows this fool, they surely deserve the loss.

Actually his thinking on Francis being a value bet is fair as I'm sure plenty of sharps will bet on that line. Even thinking he should be - 150 to - 200 isn't egregious. It's his misplaced hubris from having no clue how to actually handicap a fight when he adds in gane should be +900 is what is super comical as those two views are basically diametrically opposed to each other

 

[dog y]

Will make sure to bump this when I cash on the $500 bet.

Did you buy a 07 account?
Obviously you could not with your betting profits. Good luck dude, it may be a learning experience.

 

[CockBoyPwned]

I would put that at a 10% chance of happening

More then 10% chance he taps out the second the bell rings to get out of that slave contract

 

[youngsteinel]

Actually his thinking on Francis being a value bet is fair as I'm sure plenty of sharps will bet on that line. Even thinking he should be - 150 to - 200 isn't egregious. It's his misplaced hubris from having no clue how to actually handicap a fight when he adds in gane should be +900 is what is super comical as those two views are basically diametrically opposed to each other

This guys signature actually says "an intellectual mind"

Someone with this level of stupidity

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

This guys signature actually says "an intellectual mind"

Someone with this level of stupidity

Which part isn't true. That you claim francis should be around - 200 or that gane should be at %10?

Genuinely curious where you think everyone is wrong on things you clearly wrote

 

[youngsteinel]

Which part isn't true. That you claim francis should be around - 200 or that gane should be at %10?

Genuinely curious where you think everyone is wrong on things you clearly wrote

I've already explained it 3 times in this thread.

Anyway, you admitted that my thread has sound reasoning and that Francis is a good value bet. You should put a couple hundred down on it.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

I've already explained it 3 times in this thread.

Anyway, you admitted that my thread has sound reasoning and that Francis is a good value bet. You should put a couple hundred down on it.

You actually haven't explained anything about how you come to the illogical reasoning that Francis should be - 200 AND Gane should be at +900. As someone already said, you can have one of those but not both

 

[youngsteinel]

You actually haven't explained anything about how you come to the illogical reasoning that Francis should be - 200 AND Gane should be at +900. As someone already said, you can have one of those but not both

You know it's totally possible that the bookmakers would make someone's odds around +150ish and an individual can have the opinion that they have a 10% chance of winning, correct? Do I need to dumb it down more for you?

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

You know it's totally possible that the bookmakers would make someone's odds around +150ish and an individual can have the opinion that they have a 10% chance of winning, correct? Do I need to dumb it down more for you?

That's what everyone is doing, laughing at your opinion of gane at 10% while thinking Francis should be at - 200. That works out to gane at 10% and Ngannou at 67%. For your opinion to hold merit, gane would have to be at roughly +200. You logically can't have the opinion Francis should be at -200 and gane is at +900. You do understand basic math, right? There's only two fighters in the cage...

You get that right or do you need even more people laughing at how dumb that is?

 

[RonMachineGunJhun]

I called it back in 2019

 

[youngsteinel]

That's what everyone is doing, laughing at your opinion of gane at 10% while thinking Francis should be at - 200.

You get that right or do you need even more people laughing at how dumb that is?

It's actually insane how dense you are.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

It's actually insane how dense you are.

I'm not the one with the opinion Francis should be at -200 (67% chance of winning) and Gane has a 10% (+900) of winning where they are the only 2 people in the cage.

 

[youngsteinel]

I'm not the one with the opinion Francis should be at -200 (67% chance of winning) and Gane has a 10% (+900) of winning where they are the only 2 people in the cage.

False equivalence is a logical fallacy that occurs when someone incorrectly asserts that two or more things are equivalent despite the fact that there are also notable differences between them.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

False equivalence is a logical fallacy that occurs when someone incorrectly asserts that two or more things are equivalent despite the fact that there are also notable differences between them.

Agreed.

Mathematical logic also states you can't have an opinion that Francis should be a -200 favorite (67% probability) and Gane has a 10% probablity and except people not to laugh. Those two opinions cant hold up when put together.

 

[youngsteinel]

Agreed.

Mathematical logic also states you can't have an opinion that Francis should be a -200 favorite (67% probability) and Gane has a 10% probablity and except people not to laugh. Those two opinions cant hold up when put together.

You're aware that I can think Francis should be around -150 to -200 and Gane at should be around +125 to +160, and independently believe that Gane has a 10% chance of winning in my own personal opinion, right? That those are completely independent things that have no bearing on one another.