Pavlovich and Ngannou are tougher match ups than Jon.
I think Aspinall will struggle against power punchers because he has to consistently close distance due to his shorter arm length. It's not that he has problem closing the distance, there's just too much risk every time.
Aspinall excels at what Jon lacks. Aspinall throws combinations quicker than lot of the middleweights. He's not swinging for the fences for Jon to avoid.
I was and still am to some degree a Jon believer. I was probably the only one on this site who predicted (didn't come true) that Jon is the superior striker to Gane. I am telling you guys, Jon even at his lightest can't match Aspinall's quickness.
When you add that Aspinall is no slouch in grappling, this may be Jon's toughest fight in the division along with an aged out of prime Stipe.