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I'm loving these lines:
Tarec Saffiedine vs. Jake Ellenberger under 2½ @ +175 (Bet365)
While Saffiedine might have a lot of decisions under his belt he is definitely a dangerous striker and this will only be enhanced by an Ellenberger who is seemingly in Gray Maynard country when it comes to the chin department. Although it takes little to wobble him these days, Ellenberger is still a very powerful guy and will be an offensive threat himself. I feel this line is a straight up steal at + money, it's probably overly skewed by Saffiedine's decision spree in Strikeforce. Even if Saffiedine fights somewhat safe on the outside with a bunch of legkicks I still favour him to connect with something hard enough to get Ellenberger out of there within 2½.
Tom Breese vs. Keita Nakamura under 1½ @ -116 (Betfair)
A gimme fight for Tom Breese, at almost evens he has a whole 7½ minutes to get Nakamura out of there and it obviously also covers in the rare event that Nakamura gets the early finish. I'm sure Breese ITD will be as unplayable as his ML so I'm happy to get some money in early at this price.
I'm also kicking myself for not going harder on Nick Diaz to fight in 2016 @ +2500. Betfair had that prop up for a bit like a month ago and I only put down like .15u
Man, idk on those two Unders.
I don't hate either of them.. But saff is not a finisher. He just isn't.. But it pays fairly well.. K-taro is fairly tough. Not sure how likely he is to make it 7.5 mins against breese... I'm sold on breese for sure after his last fight, but idk.
As a rule, btw I hate u2.5's in 3 rounders.. (And u4.5 in 5). I say pay a lil more and take "does not go 3"