56%
That’s the magic number. That’s what you need to hit on your picks in order to make a profit according to all the top gambling experts.
It seems like it should be easy right?
You don’t even need to get 6 out of every 10 bets right.
Spoiler Alert: I did not get 56% of my picks right…
I moved to Vegas a few months ago and decided to combine two of my passions; fighting and gambling. However Vegas was not built on some average jabroni off the street coming in and hitting 56% of his picks without some sort of definable edge.
And even though I’ve been a huge fight fan for 5-6 years and have trained at a variety of gyms around the country with pros like Vladimir Matsuchenko, Jared Hamman, and Chris Leben, I did not have a definable edge.
I thought I would easily be able to pick 56% winners without even needing to do any research.
As it turns out, I was very wrong and even when I was dedicating hours and hours of my time to it (15 hours in a week at the very high end) I still was not able to hit 56% of my picks and I was barely profitable pocketing a measly $12.45 after everything was said and done.
So What Did I Learn?
Besides that gambling is hard?
Quite a bit actually and that’s what I’m going to be breaking down in this article in case anyone else wants to learn from my mistakes and research.
I started off with a $150 bankroll to make 2 bets on the UFC 201 card.
Francisco Rivera OVER Erik Perez + 125 and Tyron Woodley OVER Robbie Lawler +110.
I was actually profitable on this night but only by $10, and it started the trend of me being completely convinced I had a handle on a fight and I should maximize my profitability chances by betting it straight rather than in a parlay, only to lose badly…
Lesson # 1: You NEVER have a 100% handle on a fight, No Matter How Confident You Feel.
At first, I was operating under the same principles of trading any other commodity, try to make the best decision possible and let the chips fall where they may. I felt that Rivera was a live dog against Perez even though he’d been very streaky lately. I honestly might have thought Rivera was better than he is because he was doing well against Urijah Faber who I hate, don’t get me started on how Faber deliberately poked him in the eye. I had a similar confidence in Nate Diaz over Conor McGregor and most unfortunately Ovince St Preux against Jimmi Manuwa.
Lesson # 2: No One Really Knows Anything.
Over the course of “researching” my bets, I read articles not just by technical analysts like Jack Slack and Patrick Wyman but also by gambling experts like Nick Kalikos, and Luca Fury and even the fighter’s coaches and selected “UFC insiders.”
What did I learn from all this research?
No one really knows shit, and anyone who claims to know something is probably trying to sell you something.
I think this
Deadspin article explains the “game” of selling gambling picks better than I ever could, but suffice it to say that even when a gambling expert says their picks are “3rd party tracked” there are still a lot of ways that the wool can be pulled over the consumer’s eyes.
I didn’t track it super closely but over the 6 or so weeks these events were happening but taking a look at just the
MMAoddsbreakers posted premium bets record will show that they’re not doing so great either as there were plenty of minus events for their premium plays as well.
One guy who did seem to do well with fight picks was
Connor Reubusch of
The Heavy Hands Podcast who picked several upsets correctly in during the streak including Leon Edwards over Tumenov at the last event. Again I didn’t track his picks during the time period but I remember several times thinking “Yeah Connor called that one.”
Lesson # 3: There is a line between analyzing and overthinking.
This mistake actually cost me a ton of money in bets I didn’t place.
The most egregious being not taking Derek Brunson who I was on from the beginning because I was worried about his chin and Uriah Hall’s puncher’s chance. Though this might have been because Uriah Hall is/was dating/banging this girl I used to date so I didn’t want to spite bet against him.
I also didn’t put money on Mike Perry last weekend though that time was because I took a nap and got to the window too late.
Your initial feeling about a fight is often correct, and while you have to analyze that so you’re not just placing bets by “feel” you still need to remember why you had a strong leaning one way or the other in order to not talk yourself out of smart picks.
Lesson # 4: Take Lessons From The Long Term But Play To Win Now!
Another big battle for me internally was between what I know to be long-term trends or advantages according to the data, but may not be disadvantages in a particular fight.
As an example I present the case of Will Brooks Vs. Alex Olivera.
Normally the fighter who misses weight losses about 61% of the time, according to this
Data Analysis.
I know that fighters that miss weight usually lose, but Olivera coming in so heavy and weighing early made it obvious he was aiming to avoid the draining weight cut and be the bigger guy in the cage.
I foolishly bet Brooks in a parlay and lost.
I had a similar situation happen with Gilbert Burns…
You have to be able to be informed by but not become a slave to the trend as an indicator of the future. Long term trends and advantages like reach, pace, long layoffs, debuting fighters, weight class changes, etc.… need to be weighed within the lense of the specific fight not just assumed to be correct.
In other words, these trends are correlation, not causation. A fighter tends to lose when he misses weight, but missing weight is not a guarantee a fighter will lose.
When you hear most gamblers talk, they speak about expected value (EV) if the EV of the play is correct they make it, which often leads to “sharp” gamblers playing a lot of underdogs or +odds plays.
In other sports with a point spread this can work out pretty well if a team can keep it close or not lose by too much.
However in MMA there is only one winner or loser unless you’re betting props, which I’ll get to in a minute.
So because of that you need to only bet underdogs in MMA if the you think they’re actually going to win. Not just because you think the line is “mispriced.” You don’t win MMA bets where the guy loses a close decision.
So your odds need to be good enough to pay you back for all the times that bets like this lose which can be difficult to find in MMA unless somehow you had Eric Spicely beating Thiago Santos.
Lesson # 5: There’s Levels to This…
One of the ideas I thought was really interesting came to me after losing two bets on Dustin Poirer at once.
And it was not that I should not tie multiple bets to one fight, but duh.
This is the idea of tiers or levels to each weight class.
The rough idea is this higher level guys should beat guys on the next “level” below them a certain amount of the time, to keep it easy I made it 60% or you can round down to 56% or the # needed for profitable gambling.
So…
Tier # 1 beats tier # 2 60% of the time.
Tier # 2 beats tier # 2 60% of the time.
Tier # 3 is matchup dependent but wins 60% of the time versus the rest of the top 10-15.
Take flyweight for example…
Flyweight:
Tier # 1: DJ beats any tire 2 guy at least 60% (very generous to tier 2)
Tier # 2: Benavidez, Horiguchi, Cejudo beat any tier 3 guy 60% of the time
Tier # 3: Bagunatinov, Mccall, Formiga, Reis match-up evenly with each other and should beat everyone else in the division 60% of the time.
Make sense?
Cool, here’s my lazy assessment of the rest of the tiers without doing much research.
Bantamweight:
Tier # 1: Cruz, Dillashaw
Tier # 2: Assuncao, Rivera, Sterling
Tier # 3: Garbrandt, Caraway, Lineker, Faber, Almeida
Featherweight:
Tier # 1: Aldo, Edgar, Mcgregor, Holloway
Tier # 2: Swanson, Llamas, Mendes, Pettis
Tier # 3: Olivera, Bermudez, Ortega, Stephens, Yair, Bektic
I really wanted to make Holloway tier 1 but restrained my inner fanboy, even though he is the best 145er alive and I’ll fight anyone who disagrees, which probably means I’ll have to fight A LOT of Irish guys, so maybe not.
Lightweight:
Tier # 1: Khabib
Tier # 2: RDA, Alvarez, Ferguson,
Tier # 3: barboza, Nate, Mcgregor
Welterweight:
Tier # 1: Woodley, Thompson, Maia
Tier # 2: Gastelum, Cerrone, Larkin, Lawler on decline
Tier # 3:Magny, Nelson, Story, Brown
Middleweight:
Tier # 1: Rockhold, Jacare, Weidman, Yoel
Tier # 2: Whittaker, Mousasi, Belfort, Silva, Bisping on decline x 2
Tier # 3: Brunson, Hall, Leites, Kennedy
Light heavyweight:
Tier # 1: Jones, Cormier, Johnson
Tier # 2: Gus, Teixera, Bader
Tier # 3: OSP, Krylov, Rua, Manuwa
Heavyweight:
Tier # 1: Cain
Tier # 2: Stipe, Werdum, and JDS
Tier # 3: Overeem, Rothwell, Barnett, Arlovski
Women 135:
Tier # 1: Miesha, Ronda, Nunes
Tier # 2: Shevenko, Holm, Pena, Zingano
Tier # 3: Carmouche, Pennington, Evans-smith
Women 115:
Tier # 1: Joanna, Claudia
Tier # 2: Kowalkiewicz, Rose, andrade
Tier # 3: torres, pvz, esparza?
I’m going to dive into the massive research project of seeing if my tiers hold up to actual matchups over the next few weeks, but I think it’s pretty solid and picking Poirier over a higher tier guy cost me dearly.
Lesson # 6: Everyone is good at different bets.
Gambling has a weird culture around it whether it’s at the poker table or the sports window; everyone wants to be the “smart” money.
As a result, certain bets like parlays, totals, and other props are considered dumb bets, when oftentimes they hold far more value than the straight bets.
We’ll get to the gruesome numbers in a minute, but I actually won 5 of the 8 parlays I played for + $612.
At one point before Dustin Poirier failed me, I had picked 14 straight fights right in a row and won 3 straight parlays for about $760 in profit in 3 short weeks.
Then I got greedy and started thinking I was smarter than I am and ended up giving it all back during the next 3 weeks.
The point is everyone gambles differently and is going to have different levels of success with different bets.
For me parlays are a good bet because on a 10 fight card I’m pretty good at finding the 3 or 4 fighters I’m pretty sure won’t lose and then manipulating the odds.
The great thing about parlays is you can mess with the odds by plugging in different combinations of fighters at different prices.
I did the best when I was betting 3-4 fighters at odds of 3-1.
I like 3-1 because that means I only have to win 33% of the time to break even and I think I’ve proven I can pick 3-4 winners most weeks. With 2 of the 3 parlays I lost, they were lost on the final fight of the ticket. The other one I picked Smolka, Brooks and Burkman to go 0-3, for the LOLZ.
Parlays are the only reason I didn’t lose WAY more money.
The other thing about parlays is they allow you to bet a heavy favorite without putting $300-800 at risk to get back $100 profit. Mirsad Bektic was a great parlay play at UFC 204 because he closed -560 but was pretty much a sure thing.
There are some gamblers I follow who are good at totals, some who are good at decision props, and some who are good at picking the round a fight ends in, it’s all what’s working for you.
I stopped being successful when I switched up my strategy that was working to try to maximize profits.
Lesson # 6: You must balance fear and greed.
The next lesson I learned was a psychological one, and that is learning to balance out fear and greed.
When I was up $850 I started to get greedy, I started to think I knew everything and I stopped thinking about the money at risk and instead starting thinking about the money I was losing out on.
Winning a $150 on a $50 bet started to feel like losing out on another $150 I could have had if I bet bigger.
Which led me to increase my bet size right when I started to take losses, which led to me giving the money back faster than I won it.
There’s a thin line between maximizing value and being greedy and between being defensive and being scard.
And scared money don’t make no money, that I know.
Lesson # 7: Decisions are not made in a vacuum.
In most courses of study, there is a big difference between theoretical understanding and real world application.
Gambling is no different.
Before I started I sat down and wrote out a list of gambling rules for a “system” though again anytime someone tells you they have a “system” when it comes to gambling run for the hills.
But I’m not trying to sell you anything, so I wouldn’t worry about it.
My system:
Find Opening Odds: Look for mispricing and make gut picks for the fights that seem like good bets.
Look for Data: Injuries, layoff, last fight trend, cardio, wrestling, camp, type of losses, common opponents, intangibles, ways to win, pace, age difference, toe to toe, social media, predictions.
Examine Parlays: Must win at least 34% of the time to be profitable at 3-1 odds.
Examine straight bets
Examine props
Bankroll management risk no more than 25% of bankroll per bet.
Hedging: look for opportunities to hedge for profit in both directions.
Look for best odds at casinos.
Time bet placing for best odds.
Review data afterwards
Place one straight and one prop/parlay if possible
Don’t place bets unless the odds are right.
Goal: Win 55-56% of bets.
So on paper all of that sounds good, except I stuck to almost none of it once I started to win and I don’t think I’m some sort of weak willed exception, I think most gamblers break their own rules.
Kinda like how most relationship experts have been divorced 3-4 times.
Human beings all make emotional decisions and then find logical reasons to justify the decision, it’s just how we work, there’s a great book called
Thinking Fast and Slow which explains the process better than I can.
I could say that I was trying to “maximize profit” or “get back on a winning track” or “the odds were right” or any other lame excuse gamblers make when they lose, but nothing is less fun or entertaining than hearing someone else’s bad beat story (which is NEVER their fault by the way, the same way there are no guilty men in prison).
Here’s some of the ways I broke my rules:
I bet whenever I felt like it or when I remembered to get cash out of the drawer often getting worse prices and sacrificing profit even on winning bets.
I went to whatever casino was most convenient and didn’t check odds at multiple casinos before placing bets.
I bet way more than 25% of my bankroll on single events.
And so on and so forth.
But at the time, it all made sense to me and didn’t feel reckless at all because I was already emotionally reacting.
I think at one point I even looked at one of my spreadsheets and saw I was betting way too much and just made some joke about it and went about my day.
As you can read about in the Nobel prize winning work of
DaN Ariely human beings can and often do make predictions about their behavior when emotionally cool and then make decisions that are a complete 180 when compared with their previously stated values.
These little emotional mistakes are one of the hidden edges the house has, because all the house has to do is set the line, and then let the bettors make their own mistakes, all while getting favorable odds.
No wonder almost all gamblers go broke at some point if not for good.
Ok, now that we’ve gone through what I learned, let’s look at the Gory #s.
The Gory #s:
6-7
46% winning percentage
5-3 on parlays + 612.45
1-3 on straights – 240
0-2 totals -360
Total + $12.45
Overview:
First off I was profitable so suck and my betting system is coming out in 2 weeks for just $9.99 a month.
Kidding, kidding.
Unless, in the words of the great ST Louisian philosopher Nelly once said, you’re going to do it
I went 6-7 overall for a sterling 46% winning percentage a full 10% off profitability.
Yikes.
I started off 5-1 and was up around $760 in profit for a total of $910 on a $150 investment. After that, I ended up losing 6 bets in a row then winning the last bet I placed on UFC 204.
The longest win streak was 3 events and the longest losing streak was also 3 events.
I won 0 total bets after betting on the Poirier/Johnson over and the Bigfoot/Nelson Under for a 0% winning percentage.
I won a single straight bet on Tyron Woodley, losing on OSP, Nate Diaz, and Francisco Rivera for a 25% winning percentage.
And I went 5 -3 on parlays for a 62% winning percentage which seems unsustainable, but is still almost double what I need to hit if I keep all my parlays at firm 3-1 odds.
Analysis:
As crazy it seems, I need to bet more parlays.
I’m still trying to figure out how to distribute them to get the best odds with the lowest percentage chances of losing but I think if I stick to 3 fight parlays and $100 cap on the bet I should be in pretty good shape.
I still think Under 2.5 rounds in the Bigfoot/Nelson fight was a very sharp bet, it just missed by a minute, but I do need to do more trend analysis before picking total bets, rather than just using price and my outcome trees to do it.
I will argue vehemently that the Nate-Conor rematch wasn’t that good of a fight because I lost that bet. I wouldn’t have been mad if Nate had gotten finished or lost more decisively but he sucked me back into thinking he might win…
Quick tangent, as much as I love the Diaz brothers Nate didn’t win that fight. At best it MIGHT have been a draw, but Conor probably won. It wasn’t a robbery, it was a close fight where based on the way MMA fights are scored Nate lost. Facebook after that was a wasteland of people who have watched 2 MMA fights screaming Nate got robbed and making me want to tear my hair out.
I’d honestly probably pick him to beat Conor again though; maybe I’m just an in-denial McGregor hater because I’m betting on Alvarez too. I think I like Conor though… But I did feel worse for Aldo than I have ever felt for a fighter so who knows.
Picking Rivera was a bad bet, based on me not being sold on Erik Perez who I’m still not really sold on.
But I was most wrong about OSP, as I thought my tiers theory should be in full effect only for OSP to get finished? After Jon Jones couldn’t finish him over 5 rounds…. That was another just god-awful why do you even bother betting pick. Though seriously I trusted OSP with my money which is a terrible decision, akin to trusting a guy you just met with cash to go get you weed.
Going Forward:
You probably thought I was going to stop betting with those terrible numbers…
Wrong!
But I am going to attempt to limit my losses by not betting more than $100 an event an amount, which I can afford to lose as opposed to some of these events where I had $300 on the line.
So that’s the first thing, before this experiment started I had delusions of grandeur about becoming a professional gambler and a life lived watching fights by the pool as various high class escorts and pornstars fed me grapes.
But as with most daydreams that’s obviously not going to happen especially with these numbers.
That’s actually freeing though. During this streak I put a lot of pressure on myself to make “sharp” bets or be smart about MMA because I was hoping it could turn into some sort of side career in the cockamamiest of schemes.
Now obviously I have evidence that that’s silly and I can just bet for fun and do research because I enjoy it and I think it does help me make marginally better bets.
Maybe I go back and forth. Maybe I’ll make gut picks for an event and see how I do, to compare because my guess is it’s like picking stocks where
Monkeys consistently beat hedge fund managers.
I also realized that while you can’t control the outcome of whether you win or lose when you’re gambling you can control how much fun you have and how much you let the fights affect you.
Trying to make sharp bets made gambling less fun as I was more concerned with winning so I looked smart for my like 75 twitter followers than I was with winning money or having fun.
So now I’m going to be gambling for fun and because I like talking about this stuff and I don’t have friends.
JK.
Sorta.
I am going to adopt a couple new strategies though.
1. I am going to do my tape study before making a pick rather than the other way around. I was using tape study as a way to
confirm I was right rather than as a way to form an unbiased opinion. This will also be way easier when there aren’t a million events back to back.
2. I’m going to make
outcome trees every time. I made outcome trees on probably 60% of the fights I bet and it made me really think about how likely each outcome was in order to make a smart decision in relation to the implied win probability of the line.
3. Get all my research done early. One of the best things about this 3 week break from major MMA events is that it’s letting me take my time to do my research before Ferguson vs. RDA and UFC 205 so that’s nice, but in the future I need to get all my research done before the lines open so that I can take advantage of the mispricing right away.
4. Get an online account. I mean if gambling online were legal, I would get an account on one of those sites that allegedly takes bets so that I could bet more props like specific rounds and methods of winning.
So there you have it, how I won and lost almost $1000 over the course of about 7 weeks.
I’d love to hear from any other gamblers or non-gamblers about your thoughts on this article and whether it was helpful or interesting.
Thanks,
JL
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