We will likely never see it go down from here because weapons manufacturers have contracts that require the govt to spend x amount of money on weapons or they threaten to shut down or lay people off in the congressional districts harming the politicians chances at reelection. Of all the budgets I would like to see this one drop significantly.
And we all know Ukraine and Israel are the biggest expenses driving this up
Israel and Ukraine have almost nothing to do with it. Reality sinking in around China is driving global military spending up. To a smaller extent Russia.
Western leaders stupidly believed mixed/reliant economies would be a massive deterrence to large scale wars from dictatorships.
Russia shattered that thinking by invading a European country while being largely reliant on Europe to fuel their hydrocarbon heavy economy.
Smart people in the west are waking up to the reality that China's bluster and rhetoric around Taiwan may not be anywhere near as hollow as they thought it was, the economic deterrent is shit and they need to ramp up to realistically deter China.
Also we're seeing in Ukraine that if maneuver warfare doesn't provide a decisive victory we're likely pulled into a war of attrition with a 1.4B $20T+ manufacturing monster.
Which we don't want. At all. So we're spending domestically in a big way. Worst case scenario isn't some disorganized broke muslim anymore. Military spending reflects the current geopolitical situation.
Ukraine aid is a tiny % of this increase. Israel even less. The budgets of western countries show unequivocally that the spending is primarily on their own capabilities.
Germany for example is saying it's military budget might go from 1.5% to 3.5% to recover from years of neglecting it's military. That increase alone over the next 20 years will be larger than the entire world will give Ukraine.
Europe is following this across the board with domestic spending increases Poland in particular is going nuts and even outside of Europe we're seeing a ramp up of domestic spending. Fuck man even Canada is getting twitchy with it's spending. Outright saying China is the reason why.
Being the largest arms exporter in the world I find it hard to believe America won't pull a profit long term on Ukraine military aid. It's a live demonstration of the effectiveness of American weapons in a peer war while the western world is pulling their wallets out. Contracts last decades with upgrades, maint, replacements etc.
HIMARS for example has over 2000 orders in place and there'd be more if you could produce them fast enough.
Elect politicians who want to increase trade with democratic countries at the expense of china if you want any hope of decreasing military spending.