Economy Great Article Breaking Down the US Housing Crisis & Why Government Isn't Doing Anything About It

"Optimally located housing for the best price," only makes sense if you actually understand what home buyers want. An optimal location for a person with 3 young kids is very different from an optimal location for a 20 something with no attachments.

People move to the suburbs for space. The suburbs only exist because they can provide space. If someone wants a yard, it requires a larger plot of land. You cannot meet the larger plot of land requirements in cities. No matter how much someone changes the zoning. The space simply doesn't exist. You have to move outside of the urban centers to find enough undeveloped land to create a plot large enough to accommodate the large house and yard that people want. The tradeoff is that it comes with having to drive to get places.

It's not rocket science. Space requires driving. Walking requires less space because everything is closer. People who want space understand that means things will be further away.

Have you looked at the average size of American houses over the last 60 years? It's doubled (from ~1000 sq. to ~2500 sq. ft.). Why? Because people prefer space over proximity.

Builders are not building 2500 sq. ft. houses because people want to keep living in 1000 sq. ft. apartments or 1500 sq. townhomes.

There's a market, the easiest thing to do is actually look at what drives it instead of insisting that people want something they're just not buying.
Yes people have specific wants like a larger yard and a SFH. I'm sure many of those same people would also like a pool, a tennis court, and a Range Rover to go along with it. But people will accept trade offs if it means securing an optimal or affordable location. So between a SFH with no pool and tennis court that is optimally located and affordable vs one that has those things but has a suboptimal location and is unaffordable many folks will go with the former. The same thing would play out between SFHs and multifamily housing. A working class single mother of two looking to move to the suburbs might also want a SFH with a yard(and a pool and a tennis court and a Range Rover) but she might not have the budget for it and thus will settle for multifamily housing or an ADU if it means she can live in a suburb next to good schools, decent jobs, and other amenities or if the unit is more affordable than something closer to the city's core. Of course the point of exclusionary zoning is that people like this hypothetical single mother don't have that option and can't live in the suburbs but I don't agree with that.
 
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LMAO please quote me where that happened.
Throughout this entire thread. For you the "us" is people living in already established neighbourhoods and the "them" is people whom you think should just fuck off and get their own damn neighbourhoods and stay out of yours.

Case in point,
Let’s take this example.

What can be done here?

Islam would have these residents build tiny homes in their backyards. Is that something you’d support? Do you think these people would want 2-3x the number of people in that neighborhood?
And even after I point it out to you you're oblivious. Sigh.
 
I am not wrong at all.

Home ownership rate vs % republican vote in the 2020 federal election:
Sources:

Data points (home ownership %, % voting for republicans):


Plug that into a correlation calculator (https://www.socscistatistics.com/tests/pearson/default2.aspx):


The results would be drastically worse if I accounted for population sizes as well (as places like New York and California have massive populations and very low home ownership rates which would only make the correlation stronger), but you can feel free to do that on your own.
Oh wow you got a moderate positive correlation from a sample size of 50 based off an election from 3 years ago. That really only reinforces what I said
 
Throughout this entire thread. For you the "us" is people living in already established neighbourhoods and the "them" is people whom you think should just fuck off and get their own damn neighbourhoods and stay out of yours.

Case in point,

And even after I point it out to you you're oblivious. Sigh.
The us versus them was by someone trying to make it a democrat versus republican.

The only “us” I’m on the side of is the community being able to vote on the zoning laws in their community.

I’ve stated many times that if Islam wants to put people in backyards, he can vote to change the zoning laws in his community. If enough of “them”, as you put it, want that, then it should be easy to make it happen.
 
The us versus them was by someone trying to make it a democrat versus republican.

The only “us” I’m on the side of is the community being able to vote on the zoning laws in their community.

I’ve stated many times that if Islam wants to put people in backyards, he can vote to change the zoning laws in his community. If enough of “them”, as you put it, want that, then it should be easy to make it happen.
Oh yeah, totally not the same because...<Dany07><YeahOKJen> reasons.
 
The funny thing is that when it came down to the actual policy here in Austin, Islam and I would have voted the same way.
 
You really are thick.

Do you think people in the community shouldn’t have a say in what happens in the community?
Dude, that's not the point, is it? You clearly know you were caught saying something dumb because you've resorted to insults. Not to mention the disingenuous strawmen you keep inserting, you should really give some thought to who is being thick here. I'm not the one who asserted "some people just want to make it about us vs them" while doing exactly that from the get go ITT. It's a separate argument altogether from the thread topic but that's not my doing.

I've tried to be polite in this discussion because I don't really have any concern about this type of stuff around here--I live in a rural area nowadays. You make it difficult when you can't reflect at all upon what you've been saying and learn something from that but are casting insults and being in the wrong at the same time.


Now, as to your question, it would certainly be best for the community to be persuaded that there are benefits to these kinds of changes (of which you continue to show an exaggeratedly fearful and deliberate misunderstanding) ahead of time, but the likes of you refuse to entertain the idea in the first place, hence the problem.
 
Now, as to your question, it would certainly be best for the community to be persuaded that there are benefits to these kinds of changes (of which you continue to show an exaggeratedly fearful and deliberate misunderstanding) ahead of time, but the likes of you refuse to entertain the idea in the first place, hence the problem.
Benefits for some. Detriments for others.

I don’t refuse to entertain the idea. I live in an area that has done this and it’s debated in the community.

No one owns being “right” on this. It’s a debate. You say I can’t see the other side which is something you are doing right now.


You make it difficult when you can't reflect at all upon what you've been saying and learn something from that but are casting insults and being in the wrong at the same time.

Casting insults? Wrong all the time?
 
supply and demand

good land cheap.... does not exist, it's either protected or too expensive to build on
cost of building has gone up sharply
ridiculous red tape of building, permit costs
big corporations buying up everything
kb home prioritizes existing communities, and whether you hate them or not, if they arent building in bulk, there will be a supply shortage
growing population
zoning laws
nobody wants to live in cheap areas or they are too physically far away
 
nobody wants to live in cheap areas or they are too physically far away

This creates a lot of oppurtunity for smart people. I moved to a small town and bought a big house and I see lots of other young people moving here now too.

If your goal really is home ownership, there is a path to that even in during this housing crisis.

The fact that most people are more concered with whether there's a Starbucks within walking distance is just a bonus as it keeps those types away. Win-win.
 
This creates a lot of oppurtunity for smart people. I moved to a small town and bought a big house and I see lots of other young people moving here now too.

If your goal really is home ownership, there is a path to that even in during this housing crisis.

The fact that most people are more concered with whether there's a Starbucks within walking distance is just a bonus as it keeps those types away. Win-win.
NGL, I love fast paced big cities, but they're not all that practical in living situations, would love a big home in a limited area, but that's equivalent to being a king <lol>
 
In response to this I looked at a few excerpts from Hugo's book, and read an interview of him. I dont think he is saying anything revolutionary about propaganda or misinformation, what he says is people use information to confirm pre-existing biases and that our reasoning will always push to do that. Here is a statement from the interview:

"Nowadays, you are going to see a lot of people who will doubt information from a variety of sources that this epidemic is bad, that the virus is much worse than the flu and all of this. You’re going to see a lot of people doubt that and this is going to be a much more important problem than people accepting false information. For instance, if someone accepts that it’s all a conspiracy by the Chinese, it is unclear that it will make them act in a way that is really deleterious, whereas if they reject that the virus is worse than the flu and they do nothing, there you have a problem."

And what happened? Politicians here actually told people this was no worse than the flu. That became the false information that people accepted, and it cost lives. And we have measurable data that dismissal of the virus killed many more people depending on how they vote.

Here was his response to being asked about vaccine information:

"What it comes down to is this. The vast majority of the people are going to trust their doctors in these decisions. And the core of people who don’t, the core of people who are really against vaccination, they were already resistant before."

He seems to make consistent appeals to authority in his work, which is funny.
As I mentioned, he collects a lot of research in the book. My comment wasn't that it was revolutionary--I think that's the point. What's widely known by people who study the issue hasn't really filtered to the general public. Persuasion generally happens at the personal level, dumber people are harder to persuade, and it's easier to persuade people to believe true things than false things. All of those statements are pretty uncontroversial, but in spaces like this, a contradictory view--that "the media and academia" are brainwashing everyone who disagrees with you ("you" meaning whoever is speaking)--is very common.

That people will just...be told what to do by the right people. Yet we saw a new phenomenon during COVID and since, we saw people become anti-vaxxers about only one vaccine. On this very board people did mental backflips to become resistant to vaccine data, people who had been vaccinated themselves, even people who actually got the covid vaccine, railing against it, while being perfectly fine with the idea of vaccination in other contexts...because they allowed themselves to be convinced that at least some part of the pandemic was a hoax. It seems all Mercier would say is it only worked because it played on their beliefs, and came from a source they trusted. Yeah no sh*t, that's Propaganda 101. However, many people did NOT trust their Doctors, people who had gotten previous vaccines. In fact we had regular occurrence of people convinced they were NOT dying of COVID, because it wasn't real.
Well, exactly. Their doctors were trying to persuade them, and it wasn't working. How would someone like Fox explain anti-vaxism? If your explanation is that people are being "propagandized" by rightist media, why does it only work on rightists? The theory that people believe what they want to believe and then look for support explains the facts much better (and Mercier specifically addresses anti-vax beliefs in the book, though it was pre-COVID--he talks about how anti-vax celebrities aren't really causing anti-vaxism; it's not like people who are inclined to be reasonable were dissuaded from it because they trust Jenny McCarthy so much).
For my experience, I have taken psychology courses IN film school designed to alert us to understanding how the images we create effect people. This included studying propaganda, subliminal messaging, etc. To suggest that Bernays was unsuccessful and that the role of propaganda is meaningless or a massive failure is just wrong, if there was no substance to it it wouldn't be an essential part of media training. I've also worked for a National Level advertiser, much of my early career was in advertising. Ad execs tend to be painfully uncreative, what they specialize in is figuring out stupid things that get into people's heads.
Subliminal messaging is also junk science. And ads work, to the extent they do, not by persuading but mainly by informing (e.g., this product exists, this is a trusted provider of it).
As for Bernays himself, he was a massive narcissist. But understating his importance is just silly, the guy was compared to fascist leaders in his day. The only reason he wasn't ostracized on a global scale was because while he openly advocated for propaganda, he would often say that democracy allows for pluralism of propaganda while fascism only allows for State propaganda, otherwise he was pretty heralded by basically everyone:
Yeah, he was a huge self-promoter, and people are already inclined to believe in the idea that their enemies are pliable fools ready to be conned by a guy like him.

I think you misunderstand what's going on with something like QAnon. There's an element of bullshit in it. I think people really feel disconnected from society and that their political opponents are evil, and it's just a kind of manifestation of it. I don't think anyone is really convinced by the factual claims.
 
Oh wow you got a moderate positive correlation from a sample size of 50 based off an election from 3 years ago. That really only reinforces what I said
I'm sorry the data completely goes against what you said, despite being obvious at first glance to me and confirmed by correlation calculations. Some people's brains work better I guess, sorry about that.

I've noted that I shouldn't waste my time replying to you as you will just reject the data and choose to be ignorant.
 
Big lots also consume lots of arable land which could be used for agriculture.
That's true...but people moving to the suburbs aren't planning on becoming farmers, lol. They're quite comfortable with the current arrangement where the US government subsidizes farmers to over produce some agriculture and under produce others so that we can have cheap food at home, sufficient food to export for political reasons and still pay farmers enough to keep farming.

We have more than enough farmland to feed our population. We over-produce as a nation.
 
As I mentioned, he collects a lot of research in the book. My comment wasn't that it was revolutionary--I think that's the point. What's widely known by people who study the issue hasn't really filtered to the general public. Persuasion generally happens at the personal level, dumber people are harder to persuade, and it's easier to persuade people to believe true things than false things. All of those statements are pretty uncontroversial, but in spaces like this, a contradictory view--that "the media and academia" are brainwashing everyone who disagrees with you ("you" meaning whoever is speaking)--is very common.


Well, exactly. Their doctors were trying to persuade them, and it wasn't working. How would someone like Fox explain anti-vaxism? If your explanation is that people are being "propagandized" by rightist media, why does it only work on rightists? The theory that people believe what they want to believe and then look for support explains the facts much better (and Mercier specifically addresses anti-vax beliefs in the book, though it was pre-COVID--he talks about how anti-vax celebrities aren't really causing anti-vaxism; it's not like people who are inclined to be reasonable were dissuaded from it because they trust Jenny McCarthy so much).

Subliminal messaging is also junk science. And ads work, to the extent they do, not by persuading but mainly by informing (e.g., this product exists, this is a trusted provider of it).

Yeah, he was a huge self-promoter, and people are already inclined to believe in the idea that their enemies are pliable fools ready to be conned by a guy like him.

I think you misunderstand what's going on with something like QAnon. There's an element of bullshit in it. I think people really feel disconnected from society and that their political opponents are evil, and it's just a kind of manifestation of it. I don't think anyone is really convinced by the factual claims.

Dude I've worked in media, much of it is persuasion driven, and hysteria-driven. I was recently ON local news being asked about the subject of housing and the reporter kept nudging me to comment on the NAR lawsuit in a negative light. I hadn't looked as deeply into it as I have since then but I had reservations about doing that. When she aired the piece there was a small statement from me about how bleak the housing market looks (personal experience) to average citizens and then two realtors crying about the changes in Commissions. Had I not had media training myself I might have regurgitated what she wanted.

The anti-vaxx sentiment didnt ONLY work on rightists. That was part of my point, and if I insinuated that it did then I didnt mean to. It worked on people generally distrusting of either institutionalized medicine or the giant pharmaceutical industry, both of which have valid criticisms, and that this distrust was exacerbated to override the assurance of their Doctors. They were CONVINCED they knew better than their Doctors. Plenty of people who were moderate on vaccines, over all, went full batsh*t over the COVID vaccine. Confirmation bias plays a part, but suggesting that that's THE core of it is an oversimplification that seems to always conveniently pop up when it's time it's time absolve corporate America of any impact on society. Suggesting that people were either all for vaccines or all against vaccines before the politicization on them hit and that's all that's responsible for current trends of people not getting vaccinated is not only wrong, but medically irresponsible. Why do you think anti-vaxx pundits wanted to debate even vaccine scientists publicly over it? Because making a vaccine scientist look inept with rhetoric is not difficult. This why since the advent of mass media, charisma can go much further than political or diplomatic skill when it comes to candidates. Trump is a living embodiment of this, so was Reagan, neither were skilled politicians, and they managed to capture the most powerful position in the World by convincing people they would be, and even after their cataclysmic failures, people who bought into it (even those who were NOT right wingers before), have a hard time admitting they were deceived into believing it even if that revelation comes FROM someone they trust.

Subliminal messaging is most certainly not entirely "junk science." If it was mentalists around the world would be cataclysmic failures at their jobs. It doesnt always work on highly skeptical people, or people who are paying close attention to what's happening, but the idea is that no one is always vigilant enough to ward it off entirely.

Bernays didn't con my enemies. Bernays conned my people, my own grandparents to the degree that they had a healthy disdain for my Central American and Caribbean immigrant family members without knowing a single thing about them. And I never assume that the opposition are completely gullible idiots, just that there are gullible idiots they target with their rhetoric. And of they thought they could ONLY capture those who already believe as they do, then organizations like TPUSA, and campaigns like Crowder's College debates would be an act of futility. They're not, because even in the "socialist epicenters" that are University Canvases, they can sell their Culture War snake oil.

Q-Anon worked because it had so many of the hallmarks of how cults form. The social isolation was baked in easily because of the pandemic, but it had the covert hero tentatively sacrificing their career to be a savior, it had the nefarious unseeable "they" (Deep State), and it had a mythology surrounding the preferred outcome (Trump was sent by God to liberate us from "them"). People were so convinced of the factual claims that Trump himself picked up on the sentiment and ran with it, then plenty of them stormed the f*cking Capital. Not to mention those who waited in Texas for the resurrection of JFK Jr. Lol Hell RFK is still playing on that hysteria just by having his name in the hat, and his anti-vaxx crap, and he sometimes has over 10% of poll voters.
 
That's true...but people moving to the suburbs aren't planning on becoming farmers, lol. They're quite comfortable with the current arrangement where the US government subsidizes farmers to over produce some agriculture and under produce others so that we can have cheap food at home, sufficient food to export for political reasons and still pay farmers enough to keep farming.

We have more than enough farmland to feed our population. We over-produce as a nation.

Well, unfortunately corporations would rather waste it than use it in a matter that doesnt garner profit. Reason we also have the highest amount of food waste, while having food deserts at the same time...which is becoming a larger problem. Also that food is paying farmers less, and costing consumers more with more laxed safety standards due to corporate concentration as well.
 
That's true...but people moving to the suburbs aren't planning on becoming farmers, lol. They're quite comfortable with the current arrangement where the US government subsidizes farmers to over produce some agriculture and under produce others so that we can have cheap food at home, sufficient food to export for political reasons and still pay farmers enough to keep farming.

We have more than enough farmland to feed our population. We over-produce as a nation.
Sigh. Never mind.
 
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